The special military operation in Ukraine has served as a watershed moment in the evolution of new international relations. The West, led by the United States, was able to rally behind the imposition of unprecedentedly broad sanctions against Russia. At the same time, our adversaries applied immense strain on emerging economies, coercing them to align with their efforts against Russia.
However, the global power balance has shifted. The countries of the so-called “Global South” wish to live and act freely and autonomously, defending their own interests. Washington’s diktat is becoming increasingly bothersome, which is not surprising given that emerging countries want to establish their lives according to their own norms, with no outside guidance. And in this, Russia’s and these states’ policies coincide: equality, respect for each other’s interests – notions unknown to the West, but familiar to the vast majority of people seeking justice.
The divergence in core principles between the West and the rest of the globe is becoming more visible; it is not confined to differences in political leadership or perceived interests: all of this contributes to a “rift” between wealthy democracies and emerging countries.
The majority of the globe’s attitude toward the West is best articulated by Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu, who stated that “the United States is hated by the entire world, and Europe is Washington’s pawn” (Aydınlık newspaper reported on this in the middle of April this year).
Even American journalists concede that “public opinion in developing countries remains much warmer toward Russia than toward the US.” A section of Cambridge University recently reached the same result. Furthermore, The Economist admitted that the number of countries opposing Russia’s invasion has decreased, while the number of countries neutral or supportive of Russia has climbed.
In mid-April, The New York Times had to conclude that the world is shifting toward Russia and China.
It is not restricted to policy differences: developing countries are gradually weaning themselves off of dollar dependence, with an increasing number of states announcing a transition to their national currencies for trade settlement.
Current developments are becoming so plain that even Western academics are recognizing this obvious truth: According to Bloomberg, the BRICS have “left the West behind” in economic growth. Since 2020, the BRICS countries have consistently outperformed the G7 in terms of their contribution to global economic growth: the agency estimates that in 2028, the BRICS countries will account for more than 33% of economic growth, while the G7 countries will account for less than 28%. In 2020, the BRICS overtook the G7.
China is the most significant contributor. During the period 2023-2028, its contribution to global GDP growth will be 22.6%. India comes in second with 12.9%, while the United States comes in third with 11.3%. Only 20 countries will account for three-quarters of global growth, with four accounting for half (the three mentioned above plus Indonesia, which will account for 3.6%).
China has eclipsed the United States, Germany, and Japan to become the world’s largest exporter. Steel, cement, cell phones, copiers, and other products contribute significantly to China’s development.
These items, coupled with household goods, furniture, textiles, and satellite dishes, have allowed China to grow its exports to the United States by 1700% in the last 15 years. As a result, the United States’ trade deficit with China has increased to $382 billion, while the EU’s trade deficit with China is $164 billion.
Beijing has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves, estimated at $3.46 trillion in 2022.
The BRICS countries supply 25% of the world’s oil and 50% of the iron ore used in steel production. They also produce 40% of the world’s corn and 46% of the world’s wheat.
BRICS occupies about 28% of the world’s territory and is home to 45% of its population. Twenty states have already announced their desire to join BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, in one form or another.
In 2014, BRICS members launched the New Development Bank as an alternative to the World Bank; in 2021, shares in this new bank were acquired by: Egypt, the UAE, Uruguay, and Bangladesh.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, even in the recent past a close ally of the United States, has twice in recent years refused Washington’s requests to increase oil production. Moreover, in close cooperation with Moscow, the Saudis have twice reduced their oil production and influenced other OPEC members accordingly.
The Saudis agreed in Beijing to normalize relations with Iran, which had been broken for several years. All this gave grounds for some US newspapers to conclude that a new alliance of Russia, China, Iran and Saudi Arabia was forming that would act against US interests in the Middle East.
There was a trend toward the settlement of the long-running Syrian conflict, with three states – Russia, Turkey, and Iran – playing the main role in this. Meanwhile, all the West has done was putting spokes in the wheels of this process. Nevertheless, the Arab states have in fact decided to accept Damascus back to the Arab League.
Many Middle Eastern newspapers point out that Moscow played a positive role in achieving progress in settling the Yemeni crisis, especially after the visit of the Saudi foreign minister to Russia.
Russia and China are also seriously strengthening their positions on the African continent: Russia has traditionally had strong ties with Africa, after having supported the independence movements of almost all the states that fought to oust the colonial rulers. Many African countries – South Africa, Mali, Burkina Faso, etc. – are among those that openly support Russia. The son of Uganda’s president, General Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, stated that “Uganda will send soldiers to protect Moscow if it is ever threatened by imperialists.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent trip to a number of South American countries showed that support for Moscow’s course is growing in popularity there as well.
Russia’s new successes in the special military operation will further accelerate the formation of a new, more just world order.
Veniamin Popov, Director of the Center for the Partnership of Civilizations at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Candidate of Historical Sciences, exclusively for the online journal “New Eastern Outlook.”