With India and China developing a new consensus on the management of their border in Ladakh and with the possibilities of bilateral conflict receding, the US-led anti-China alliance has begun to seriously stumble from within. With both Asian giants founding new common ground, the future of the QUAD looks bleak while that of the BRICS prosperous. The new agreement is reminiscent of the ways China resolved its border disputes with the Soviet Union, with those agreements helping begin a new era of ties between the two countries. If China and India can permanently resolve their issues, grounds for Washington to build an anti-China alliance, with a large military component, will become unavailable for a time long enough for the two neighbours to re-write their bi-lateral ties, in alliance with Russia, in ways to shift the world’s centre of gravity from the West to the East. This agreement reinforces the success of the SCO’s regional logic over the QUAD’s anti-China underpinnings.
According to the agreement, both sides will “cease forward deployment [in the disputed region] in a phased, coordinated and verified manner” in addition to dismantling any infrastructure built. Both parties also agreed to not engage unilaterally in changing the status quo. This is a significant development insofar as both parties emphasised bilateral engagement. This emphasis on the bilateral approach is premised on the Indian minister for external affairs’ assessment – which he shared on August 30 – that the future of the Asian continent depends on the India-China ties, adding that these ties need to be based on mutual sensitivity and respect for mutual interests.
The recent agreement reflects this understanding in an unambiguous way, changing the emphasis from engaging in a struggle for leadership to joint management of the region. This new emphasis is a direct challenge to the traditional understanding of India-China ties that Washington has been following for decades. More than 6 decades ago, John F. Kennedy noted that there was a “struggle between India and China for the economic and political leadership of the East, for the respect of all Asia, for the opportunity to demonstrate who way of life is the better.”
But this understanding is increasingly proving to be wrong, or outdated at least. The war in Ukraine – which, many in New Delhi, believe is “Europe’s problem” and that it has been caused by Washington’s push for expanding NATO – has brought changes in the international system that has allowed many countries to assert strategic autonomy. The new India-China border agreement not only reflects this change, but also shows its growing magnitude, especially when analysed in conjunction with other related developments.
In this context, New Delhi’s deal with China is a major Indian departure from the path set by Washington. New Delhi, despite all the pressure from the US, has continued to buy Russian oil, thus offsetting the impact of US sanctions on Russia. New Delhi’s import of Russian oil jumped from 0.66 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2022 to 8.42 million tonnes in the second. New Delhi’s agreement with China is direct reinforcement of its politics of charting a course of action that hardly converges with Washington’s.
Can, then, Washington really hope to activate the QUAD and suppress other organisations like the BRICS and the SCO? The question is pertinent insofar as India’s decision to engage with China and regard China as a key component of the ‘Asian century’ means that New Delhi does not subscribe to Washington’s notion of China being a regressive and authoritarian power bent upon dominating the region unilaterally. India’s agreement with China shows New Delhi neither agrees with Washington nor requires its assistance, via the QUAD or otherwise, to shape its ties with China.
This is not to suggest that New Delhi will opt out of the QUAD for good. It remains that India’s participation in such groups allows it to play global. However, while it will remain engaged with the QUAD, there is very little reason for it to become part of an anti-China regional grouping when it is already on a path of military de-escalation in the disputed region.
Granted that the new India-China agreement is not a panacea, it remains that it is an important step toward prioritising economic cooperation over conflict. As Chinese officials remarked recently, there is a lot of talk about the ‘Asian century’ and how India-China cooperation is vital for its materialisation. He said that for this dream to materialise both countries need to develop. To quote him, “Unless China and India are developed, there will be no Asian century. No genuine Asia-Pacific century or Asian century can come until China, India and other neighbouring countries are developed.”
Again, the Chinese idea of an Asian century, tied as it is to the development of all countries, counteracts the US notion of China seeking to establish its hegemony. The Chinese have emphasised time and again how they seek to build a system that is “win-win” for all. India’s very conscious decision to make a new agreement with China shows that New Delhi believes there is enough room for the possibility of a “win-win” to materialise. The agreement shows that New Delhi, like China, believes that a pre-requisite for this dream to materialise is to move away from a system of US interference and/or its tendency to ‘manage’ Asian affairs from afar. That, New Delhi thinks, needs to change with a system that takes all states’ core interests into account.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research-analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook“.