Washington pressured India to cut Russian oil imports, threatened tariffs, and strained a vital partnership. Now, with trade negotiations stalled and energy security under pressure, Rubio’s visit raises a bigger question: is the US repairing relations with India, or simply recalibrating its priorities?
Although there has been a slight decrease in the import percentage, Russia is one of India’s most significant trade partners and a major supplier of crude oil. And astonishingly, the same tariff king is now asking Russia to supply diesel to American markets. Tariffs and sanctions have finally backfired. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in India from 20 to 22 October 2026. Basically, Washington wants India as a partner, but it continues to treat India as a target. Rubio’s challenge during this visit was to bridge that contradiction.
Rubio in India
The three-day visit of Rubio to India was his second visit in six months. And just like last time, Rubio was a man on a mission. Ties between India and the United States are under strain. The trade deals are stuck, and there is pressure on the energy front. America’s war with Iran has disrupted energy supplies, and India has been hit. Skipping New Delhi, Rubio’s itinerary this time spoke volumes about how this trip was all about business. His first stop was Mumbai, the financial capital. His second visit was to Jamnagar, Gujarat, to one of the world’s largest oil refineries, Reliance. This visit showcases how Marco Rubio is doing his best to solidify energy deals with India, since adding more refined fuel to the global market might just save Trump’s declining popularity before the midterms in November.
What Was on the Table?
A. Indo-US Trade Deal
In February 2026, President Donald Trump announced a framework for a US–India trade deal under which Washington would reduce tariffs on Indian goods in exchange for India lowering its trade barriers and reducing its purchases of Russian oil. However, the announcement did not amount to a signed trade agreement, and negotiations continued over the outstanding terms. Trump also claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised to stop purchasing Russian oil.
Earlier this month, India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman spoke about the trade deal. She said, “We had reached a plateau.” But during this visit, Rubio painted a very different picture. He said,
“We are very, very close. I would say we’re about as close as you can be without having an executed agreement. I think there’s a small number of items left to wrap up. So, I think that will happen shortly.”
This hope for a quick deal is grounded on the reason that it could be a waiver. A waiver on tariffs linked to buying Russian crude. On September 18, 2026, Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act into law, authorising additional tariffs and sanctions targeting countries purchasing Russian energy. India was directly implicated as one of the world’s largest buyers of Russian crude oil, making it vulnerable to the potential duties. However, on October 16, he waived the relevant provisions, including the potential duties targeting major importers of Russian oil and gas. The decision removed a significant obstacle to US–India trade.
B. Energy and Oil Cooperation
America’s war on Iran has squeezed global energy supplies. So, Washington is exploring other sources, and Rubio believes that India could help. The interesting thing to note is that although India has domestic crude oil reserves and production, it relies on imports for more than 85% of its crude oil requirements. Its extensive refining infrastructure gives it a separate strategic advantage in global energy markets. The refinery Rubio visited in Jamnagar acts as an important refining complex that processes crude oil and exports fuel, and operates at a capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd). Jamnagar receives crude oil imports from foreign sources and exports processed oil to other nations.
“They have the capability to refine heavy crude. They have done so in the past, and I think as more and more Venezuelan oil comes online, that’s something they could do. Refining capabilities are a key part of it. And India is a refining superpower,” said Marco Rubio.
C. India-US-UAE Trilateral Talks
India, the US, and the UAE held trilateral discussions in Mumbai on Tuesday as part of an effort to strengthen energy security, connectivity, and economic cooperation between the three countries amid growing instability in West Asia. This meeting makes sense, given the formal I2U2 grouping, which is comprised of India, Israel, the US, and the UAE. The three members of the grouping were physically present in Mumbai, while on the same day, US War Secretary Pete Hegseth was visiting Israel.
This meeting seems extremely significant since disruptions to shipping via the Strait of Hormuz affect the world’s energy supply. Moreover, attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities by Houthis and worries over the Bab-el-Mandeb strait are making the situation precarious for these crucial waterways. “Useful exchange of perspectives on energy, connectivity, and contemporary developments,” is how External Minister Jaishankar termed the meeting.
A Strategic Reset or a Temporary Thaw?
Rubio’s three-day visit to India was not as simple as it seems. From trade talks and trilateral meetings to refining deals, it was a critical time for both the US and India to play their cards. And the reason for this criticality is simple—the midterms.
President Trump’s tariff and sanction policies have backfired completely. He might even be fearing a possible impeachment. His MAGA base, which mainly includes farmers and the labour class, has been calling for low diesel prices. It has become Trump’s electoral compulsion to strike oil deals, either with Russia or with India.
So, on one hand, Rubio calls India a refining superpower; on the other, Washington imposes sanctions against India. And that captures Rubio’s biggest problem: repairing the trust. Trust that has been shattered repeatedly under the Trump presidency. That’s what Rubio has probably tried to address in this visit.
This visit is also related to Venezuelan acting leader Delcy’s visit to India in June 2026. In my previous analysis, I argued that the Indo-Venezuelan revival of relations is now in the pipeline, and both will probably move forward in good faith. But if both countries dance to the tune of the Americans, the eventual beneficiary of this will only be the US.
But here is the problem. Venezuelan oil extraction and production still requires years for investors to set up their facilities and start full-scale production. That’s probably where the India-US-UAE trilateral meeting played its role. The UAE has oil while India has refining capacity. And the end product is what the US wants. What the US is trying to do is to repair the damage that resulted from Trump’s tariff policies and war against Iran.
During this entire visit, Rubio’s tone was very gentle and sweet with India, which shows how desperate the Trump administration is right now to conclude some valuable deals with India to glorify their upcoming election campaign. While giving an interview to the Indian Express, Rubio answered the tariff tensions between the US and India and said,
“None of these tariffs are done to punish or to harm India. They are part of a broader foreign policy that unfortunately involves a war going on between Russia and Ukraine that we would like to see come to an end.”
On one hand, the Trump administration has requested diesel from Russia, while on the other hand, this sweet gesture towards India by Rubio is showing the world their backup plans. The irony is that Trump was quoted a while back saying, “Russia and India are dead economies.”
Conclusion
Whether India and the US come to an agreement or not, one thing is crystal clear: India will most likely not compromise its partnership with Russia to appease the US. Moreover, Rubio’s three-day visit to India could be a stage for the upcoming G-20 summit where major decisions could be announced. In the arena of geopolitics, it can be said that the proof of the pudding lies in actually eating it. The actual concrete gains in trade, energy, and defence will showcase whether the US was able to achieve its goals – or if Trump’s arrogance made his own plans nosedive.
Aleena Im is an independent researcher and writer and is interested in international relations and current affairs
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