Caught between the methodical repression of its own youth and the shock of a global geopolitical shift that marginalizes it, Emmanuel Macron’s France sees the republican myth collapse under the combined effect of its internal cynicism and a historic strategic defeat abroad.
This ethical divide shatters the minimal trust between the government and the citizens, and reveals an authoritarian drift disguised as a defense of public order. At its core, a regime that represses its youth is preparing its own downfall.
The great divide in discourse
For a long time now, one of the functional characteristics of declining regimes is that: the more their external influence diminishes, the more theatrical their internal firmness becomes.
Today, the European diplomatic architecture is disintegrating under the effect of energy realities and realignments of alliances, while the management of national social protests, particularly in France (the country at the epicenter of the movement), Belgium (Brussels and Wallonia), Italy (Rome), Germany and Greece, illustrates a major ethical and political impasse.
The diptych of cynicism
The Élysée Palace’s stance offers a striking contrast, and Macron’s political inconsistency reaches unprecedented heights. Regarding the riots in Iran, the president’s pronouncements are unambiguous and express strong enthusiasm for the youth protests abroad. While the riots were still raging in Tehran, he emphatically declared: “I would like to express my admiration for these young people who are fighting…” This emphasis contrasts sharply with his absolute inflexibility on French soil. Faced with the demonstrations by high school and university students in France, the rhetoric abruptly reverses: “None of these debates or fears legitimizes violence.”
This double standard weakens the moral authority of public discourse, especially since bravery celebrated abroad becomes a crime on national soil. Dissent becomes intolerable as soon as it challenges the reforms of the Élysée Palace. This blatant hypocrisy profoundly delegitimizes the moral authority of the presidency.
On the ground, the conduct of law enforcement operations against high school and university student movements – illustrated by striking incidents and the systematic use of intermediate force weapons – has prompted repeated warnings from oversight bodies: the Defender of Rights, the UN, and the Council of Europe. State violence is not an abstract concept. It translates into mutilated bodies and shattered lives. The uprisings of 2018 and 2023 have left indelible scars. In Bordeaux and Paris, young people lost an eye or a hand. So-called “intermediate force” weapons cause irreparable devastation. Yet nothing can justify these physical mutilations inflicted on minors. The security toll is mounting, directly undermining fundamental freedoms.
This rift alienates a generation and weakens the republican pact. But history will judge harshly this five-year term marked by intransigence and violence.
Energy realpolitik and settling accounts
On the international stage, the pretence of Atlanticist alignment is crumbling. The deterioration of relations between Washington and Kyiv testifies to the primacy of pragmatic interests over moral posturing.
Donald Trump and the Ukrainian puppet Volodymyr Zelensky are now at loggerheads since the announcement of the agreement between Putin and Trump for the immediate delivery of 300,000 tons of diesel to the American and world markets, followed by 500,000 tons in November, 1,000,000 thereafter, then 3,000,000, depending on the conditions of the refineries.
This means that both Ukraine and the warmongering Europe are being casually sacrificed by Trump. In the mind of the leader of the MAGA coalition, declared rivalry and open hostility are always preferable to a feigned alliance. The United States and Europe, both NATO members, have discovered, too late, that they are more enemies than friends. Europe is outright losing the diplomatic battle over energy. Yet it is far from being capable of winning a military battle against Russia.
From the Capitol riot to the major election campaigns of late 2024, Trump remains furious about the role European elites and media played in his humiliation. From legal troubles to assassination attempts that he miraculously overcame to regain his seat in the White House, Donald J. Trump is giving Europe a taste of its own medicine, a Europe that whines at every turn of realpolitik.
While Russia consolidates its historically established power position by leveraging an unashamed military superiority, European diplomacy suffers a major defeat in the energy field.
Mentioned in passing in the second paragraph of this section, the emergence of global oil agreements and massive fuel deliveries between major players (United States and Russia) confirms that industrial considerations now take precedence over promises of assistance.
The whimsical and insipid, perverse and narcissistic elites of warmongering Europe must face the facts: the world cannot do without Russia.
This is a challenge to the thesis on “the end of history” supported by Fukuyama and a confirmation of the one on the defeat of the West, which is largely documented by Todd, and which we develop in the following section.
As mentioned above, from the Capitol episode to major election deadlines, Donald Trump’s political trajectory has been accompanied by a merciless backlash against European chancelleries, trapped by their own certainties.
From Fukuyama to the reality of power
In any case, the accumulation of internal tensions and external setbacks seals the twilight of technocratic illusions.
Fukuyama’s thesis of the “end of history” and the inevitable triumph of the liberal model gives way to the realities of bloc rivalry.
As Emmanuel Todd so aptly analyzed, the internal breakdown of authority models and strategic isolation reveal the vulnerability of a system that has preferred accounting management to social dialogue and diplomatic realism.
It is now clear that elections will no longer be enough to contain social frustration in France. Macronism is collapsing due to the ethical void of its dogmatism. The sociological isolation of the government is accelerating the disintegration of its electoral base. Macron’s downfall will not come from the courts, but from the streets in revolt.
France must therefore stop mutilating its own youth.
Mohamed Lamine KABA, Expert in the geopolitics of governance and regional integration, Institute of Governance, Human and Social Sciences, Pan-African University
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