Without a credible political solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, Gaza will continue to oscillate between fragile ceasefires and devastating wars, leaving lasting peace out of reach.
The Illusion of a Gaza Breakthrough
The most likely outcome of this impasse is not a lasting solution but the continuation of the status quo that followed the so-called ceasefire established in 2025. The IDF has violated this ceasefire almost daily, without any objection from President Trump, the self-proclaimed champion of international peace, and his Board of Peace (BoP). A viable political settlement would require the gradual disarmament of both Hamas and Israel-backed armed groups, accompanied by a reciprocal withdrawal of the IDF.
However, under the current circumstances, this seems a far-fetched dream. No one attuned to the dynamics of the Israel-Hamas war can expect any substantive concessions from the Zionist state ahead of the upcoming elections in Israel in October. Even after the elections, regardless of who becomes the new Prime Minister of Israel, the policy of the state regarding Gaza would remain the same due to prevalent Zionist ideology in Israeli politics. Some optimistic commentators have exaggerated about President Trump’s influence over Netanyahu.
Recent developments contradict such claims. Former US Secretary of State John Kerry stated, “He [Netanyahu] wanted us to strike [Iran]. President Obama refused. President Joe Biden refused. President George W. Bush refused. The only president who has agreed to this, obviously, is President Trump.” This demonstrates that Netanyahu and the Zionists influence Donald Trump, not vice versa. It further shows his impulsive decision-making, which had profound consequences for the United States.
The negotiations that the US President recently cited as a reason for not launching his “fire and fury” against Iran are only taking place between Iran and Oman. The deal between the two sides has reportedly been made. However, the success of this deal will depend on political and strategic decisions, many of which lie only within Washington’s control. The deal will likely be contingent on the US lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports. Iran could also demand an end to the US and Israeli strikes on its infrastructure. As with Gaza, optimism is understandable, but realism remains essential.
Trump’s Middle East Gamble and the Limits of American Power
The Trump administration, weak on its geopolitical expertise, bereft of diplomatic knowledge, and ignoring the lessons of the Iraq and Afghan Wars, mired the country in another war without any exit strategy. The US motto in the Vietnam War was ‘Peace with honour,’ but the war ended in shameful defeat and humiliation. Perhaps the only lesson to draw more than five decades later is that repeated military interventions increasingly resemble the desperate actions of a power attempting to preserve its declining global influence.
However, this decline is unlikely to be swift, as China and Russia seek to build a parallel alternative international system rather than rapidly replacing the US as the global hegemon, and further instability cannot be ruled out. Recent international developments have significantly impinged on the US’s global perception. People around the globe have become critical of the US and its allies. Nonetheless, political elites often take a different stance. Despite Donald Trump’s repeated criticism of Europe, much of the European Union continues to align closely with Washington, as do several governments across West and South Asia. The Pakistani government’s policies and praise of President Trump illustrate this divergence between public opinion and political elites, especially in South Asia.
Palestinian Self-Determination in an Era of Endless Conflict
The idea of Palestinian self-determination now appears increasingly outdated in the Palestinian context, especially amidst ongoing genocide and ethnic cleansing in Gaza and the West Bank. War crimes are a daily occurrence in Palestinian territory, often intensifying in the aftermath of Palestinian resistance. The Palestinian Authority is widely criticized for its limited capability and inability to protect the lives of innocent Palestinian civilians, with its limited criticism of everyday atrocities by the Zionists. The Zionist settlers intensify their atrocities and coercive measures against the native Palestinians after every resistance.
Why Justice Must Precede Peace
The consequences of this approach are being seen globally. The public sentiment seems to be shifting even in the countries that have been complicit in Israel’s genocidal operations in Gaza and the West Bank. People around the world are now criticizing the Zionist atrocities and war crimes. However, the political elites in some Western countries are still protecting these war crimes by declaring the supporters of Palestine “terrorists.” For a permanent and credible peace in Palestine, the United Nations and other international institutions need to play their role. Without addressing the root cause of the issue, which is the illegitimate occupation of Palestinian territory by the Zionists, a lasting peace in Palestine and the Middle East is a far-fetched dream.
Аbbas Hashemite is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist
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