Protests in Seoul have now been under way for more than twenty days; the head of the Central Election Commission has resigned and a criminal case has been opened against him; President Lee Jae Myung’s approval rating, once triumphant, has for the first time fallen below 50 per cent and is now outpaced by his disapproval rating. These are all outcomes of the scandal that erupted after the Democratic Party secured what initially appeared to be a convincing victory in the local government elections.
What happened?
The most high-profile issue was a shortage of ballot papers at no fewer than 91 polling stations out of 14,288 nationwide – and, notably, all of these were in cities or districts where conservatives traditionally prevail. In Seoul alone, at least 42 polling stations, mostly located in traditionally conservative areas, were affected. Voting was temporarily suspended at 26 stations, and some voters left without casting their ballots. Subsequently, more than 42,000 unused ballot papers were found in the same districts.
It soon came out that, “due to the high rate of early voting,” the National Election Commission (NEC) had decided to reduce the minimum print run of ballots from 60 per cent to 50 per cent of the electorate, without holding a separate official meeting to authorise the change.
Then, several losing candidates – for example, Incheon Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok – claimed that while the election-day vote count had favoured them, early voting had delivered a decisive victory to their opponent. In the same city, several polling stations produced identical results for early voting. Yoo’s supporters called this “statistically almost impossible,” fuelling suspicion among sceptical voters. A similar pattern was observed in elections held in Gwangju and South Jeolla Province.
The National Election Commission apologised for the ballot shortage, stating that under electoral law, a shortage of ballots does not constitute grounds for postponing an election or holding a re-run.
As a result, protests demanding a re-run have continued for 23 consecutive days. As of 8:00 pm on 27 June 2026, approximately 22,000 to 24,000 people had gathered near the handball gymnasium in the Olympic Park area of southern Seoul, which had served as a ballot-counting centre. Among the protesters were both elderly voters, who predominantly support conservatives, and younger people, including both supporters of the People Power Party and those simply outraged by the situation.
Student organisations from 18 universities issued a joint statement in which, on the one hand, they called for the issue not to be politicised, while on the other, they condemned the shortage of ballot papers as a fundamental violation of electoral rights and the Constitution, demanding radical reform of the NEC.
Criticism of the Election Commission – including from conservatives and conspiracy theorists…
As noted by Shin Yul, professor of political science at Myongji University, the Commission has become an untouchable institution, dismissing all attempts at intervention as political pressure. Whenever concerns arose over early voting, election results, or vote counting, the NEC consistently rejected them, branding those who spoke out as “conspiracy theorists” or “election deniers.”
Celeste Arrington, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, specialising in comparative politics, social movements, law and civil society in South Korea and Japan, pinpoints that the incident occurred against the backdrop of the slogan “stop the steal” gaining traction in South Korea – a reference to allegations of electoral fraud in the United States following the 2020 presidential election.
Moreover, some have gone so far as to suggest that Yoon Suk-yeol’s victory in the presidential election might have been achieved with a very different margin. According to this narrative, ballot boxes were allegedly “pre-loaded” with ballots for the Democrats, and exit poll results fed to the public were intended to legitimise their victory. But Yoon turned out to have more supporters than expected, and despite all the manoeuvring, he won – albeit by a narrow margin. The former president attempted to prove this, and his declaration of martial law was largely aimed at seizing the election commission’s servers by force to find evidence – but without success.
Some, however, believe that there is no need to look for malicious intent where simple negligence is at play. Professor of political science at Sogang University, Cho Young-ho, pointed out four years ago that the system relies too heavily on the actual involvement of local officials. With more than 14,000 polling stations and only about 3,000 permanent NEC staff, the organisation of elections largely falls on local administration officials, for whom it is a heavy additional burden. That said, in several other countries, it is precisely local officials – even without instructions from above – who have been known to engage in electoral manipulation.
The conservatives are naturally trying to ride this wave, but challenging election results in court is an extremely complex matter, requiring substantial evidence. Hence, even some conservative media have written, “Petitions regarding ballot shortages and other irregularities must be pursued through legal procedures, rather than fueling calls for nationwide re-elections or conspiracy theories.”
The investigation is under way…
Noh Tae-ak, Chairman of the Central Election Commission, and Heo Cheol-hun, the agency’s Secretary-General, immediately acknowledged responsibility for the incident and announced their resignation. On 8 June, Cho Hee-dae, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of South Korea, accepted Noh Tae-ak’s resignation, as he had taken responsibility for the incident.
On 9 June, the court issued an order to preserve evidence in the ballot boxes, but the following day it emerged that a ballot container from a polling station in Jamsil, Songpa District – where the main protests are taking place – had mysteriously gone missing.
On 12 June, the Ministry of Justice approved investigators’ request to impose a foreign travel ban on Noh Tae-ak and other key officials. That same day, over 100 investigators took part in searches at seven locations, including the NEC headquarters and local polling stations in Seoul. The joint investigation team of prosecutors and police raided the NEC servers, seizing internal correspondence, official messages and coordination documents – precisely what Yoon Suk-yeol had sought to obtain.
At the same time, the Audit and Inspection Bureau is considering a financial audit of the National Election Commission, focusing on whether funds allocated for printing ballots were properly budgeted and executed.
In addition to the regular investigation, on 18 June the National Assembly approved, almost unanimously, a parliamentary inquiry into the ballot shortage. The special committee comprises members of all major parties.
On 19 June, the Fact-Finding Committee investigating the ballot shortage called for a criminal case to be brought against former Commission Chairman Noh Tae-ak, citing systemic failures in the election management system. “Given the systemic failures in the election management system revealed by the ballot shortage incident, the NEC requires radical reform, tantamount to dismantling and rebuilding,” the committee stated.
The authorities’ response
According to a social survey conducted from 15 to 19 June, 46.7 per cent of respondents approved of the president’s performance. The proportion of those who believed that Lee Jae-myung was handling his duties poorly stood at 49.7 per cent. Thus, for the first time since taking office, President Lee found himself in a situation where a majority viewed his work negatively.
The government therefore immediately joined in criticising the election commission, effectively shifting potential blame onto it. On 14 June, President Lee Jae-myung stated that he accepted complaints about violations of electoral rights, but that “spreading claims of election fraud and allegations of vote manipulation amounts to distorting the essence of the matter and constitutes anti-social behaviour that insults the precious vote of the people.”
On 19 June, Lee Jae-myung declared that fundamental reform of the NEC was necessary: “If necessary, and if the rival parties share the same view, should we not consider at least one constitutional amendment concerning the National Election Commission?”
Author’s commentary
At this point, the story has moved beyond traditional conspiratorial claims of rigged elections. Even newspapers such as the South China Morning Post have reported, “The scandal has undermined trust in the country’s electoral system, posing a serious political challenge to the current administration.” According to a Russian historian and journalist, Oleg Kiryanov, the elections, which were supposed to strengthen the government’s position, have instead demonstrated just how unstable and conflict-ridden South Korean politics remain.
It is clear that a scholar cannot make accusations based on rumours, but given the Democrats’ habit of changing the rules of the game or other “legal miracles” surrounding President Lee – including the deaths of five key witnesses in criminal cases against him – a picture unfavourable to the authorities fits together very conveniently, and it is psychologically very difficult to “unsee” the pattern that has taken shape in one’s mind.
In this context, it cannot be ruled out that both sides may fabricate “evidence,” or that some cornered NEC official might eventually start revealing real details. For now, the jury is still out on whether the situation will escalate into a more serious crisis.
Konstantin Asmolov, PhD in History, Leading Research Fellow at the Centre for Korean Studies, Institute of China and Contemporary Asia, Russian Academy of Sciences
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