The parliamentary elections in Bangladesh, held on February 12, are interesting to consider in the context of the evolving situation in South Asia.
Domestic political aspects
The repeatedly postponed elections to the Bangladeshi parliament finally took place a year and a half after the coup and the flight of the previous Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina Wazed, to India. She had held this office continuously since 2009, and during that time the country achieved notable economic development. It seemed that the optimistic forecast from the early 2000s was about to come true, i.e., the prospect of Bangladesh, once one of the world’s poorest countries, joining the pool of the “Next Eleven” drivers of the global economy within two decades.
However, the sharp deterioration of the global political situation at the beginning of this decade (particularly Covid-19) had a most negative impact on Bangladesh’s economy as well. At the same time, the domestic political situation worsened, as the long-standing, uncompromising struggle between the two main political clans –the Awami League party led by Sheikh Hasina and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led in recent decades by Khaleda Zia (who passed away on December 30, 2025) – was compounded by protests from student youth.
Following unsuccessful attempts to suppress the protests, including through the use of firearms, Sheikh Hasina fled to India on August 6, 2024. The interim government formed by the “students” was headed by Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus, who had previously been in London. His promised few months until parliamentary elections to form a legitimately elected government stretched into a year and a half. During this electoral pause taken by Yunus, the Awami League was banned and consequently excluded from the upcoming elections, and Sheikh Hasina herself was sentenced to death in absentia during a judicial process. The main competitor to the BNP became the Jamaat-e-Islami*, which had opposed Bangladesh’s (then “East Pakistan”) independence in 1971, while the Awami League had been the leader of the independence struggle.
In the general parliamentary elections, where the total number of seats is 300, the BNP won a decisive victory, securing 216 mandates, while its main rival won 68 mandates. It is worth noting that the BNP was once a comrade-in-arms of the Awami League in the struggle for Bangladesh’s independence, and the results of the past elections provide a (negative) answer to the frequent speculations regarding the prospect of the country reuniting with Pakistan. Establishing normal interstate relations with it is, however, quite possible. In fact, this process had already begun under the interim government of Yunus.
In accordance with the election results, the government of Bangladesh will be led by the current BNP leader, the 60-year-old Tarique Rahman, who is the son of Khaleda Zia. He too spent a long time in London and arrived in the country only a month and a half before the election date.
The new government of Bangladesh will have to respond in one way or another to several factors, as formulated by the respected Indian newspaper The Hindu, which also influenced the outcome of the past elections. The first of these factors is the ongoing turbulence in the country due to sharp contradictions within the system of three main political forces (BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami*, Awami League). This is despite the fact that the latter, although banned, retains popularity among at least part of the country’s population. In this regard, Sheikh Hasina characterized the elections held in Bangladesh as a “well-planned farce.”
Reaction in neighboring countries
The aforementioned remark by Sheikh Hasina was made from Indian territory, where she remains to this day due to the circumstances mentioned above. This fact in itself will constitute one of the main problems in the foreign policy of Bangladesh’s new leadership, inherited from Yunus’ government. It was under him that bilateral relations began to deteriorate, but they sharply worsened as a result of a request made to the Indian government last autumn regarding the extradition of the Awami League leader.
Such demands will, however, most likely not follow from the new government. On the contrary, one can see certain cautious “wait-and-see” signals in bilateral relations, indicating a plan to steer them onto a constructive path. For example, the Speaker of the Lower House of the Indian Parliament, Om Birla, will attend the inauguration ceremony of Rahman as Prime Minister. This is despite Prime Minister Modi refusing to attend, citing the need to receive the visiting French President Emmanuel Macron. It is worth noting that Speaker Birla himself finds himself in a delicate position, as the parliamentary opposition intends to bring a vote of no confidence against him due to allegedly inappropriate behavior during the ongoing heated discussions surrounding the proposed trade agreement with the United States.
It is noteworthy that the new Bangladeshi government will have to face issues in Pakistan similar to those in India. This will come against the background of the ousting of the Awami League from power in August 2024 and Sheikh Hasina’s flight to India.
The past decades are described in Pakistan as a “cool phase,” which gave way to a rapid warming of bilateral relations under Yunus’ government. There were contacts at the level of the top generals during which, for example, the possibility of the Bangladeshi Air Force purchasing Pakistani JF-17 fighter jets (jets that are claimed to have performed well during the last Indo-Pakistani armed conflict) was discussed. As for the political course of the new Bangladeshi government towards Pakistan, it will most likely be shaped by the objective necessity of bettering relations with India.
In addition, China is deeply involved in everything happening surrounding Bangladesh. The main instrument of Beijing’s influence on this country – as on all of China’s partner countries – is its powerful economic potential, which makes the process of building positive relations with it highly attractive. A symbol of the scale of Bangladesh’s cooperation with China is a Chinese company’s construction of a giant road-and-rail bridge across the Padma River. Sheikh Hasina was present at its grand opening ceremony in the summer of 2022. Her foreign policy, contrary to frequent assertions about its “pro-Indian” nature, actually represented a skillful balancing act created by both leading Asian powers in the region.
There is every reason to believe that something similar will be observed in the foreign policy of Rahman’s government, which came to power in Bangladesh following the general elections held on February 12 of this year.
* Organization banned in the Russian Federation
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on Asia-Pacific affairs
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