The New Eastern Outlook has previously noted that the tensions in the South Asian subregion had generally aggravated, but at the end of the last year, these tensions received further confirmation with a new escalation in the relations between India and Bangladesh.
Bilateral Relations After the Coup: On the Brink of Deterioration
Ultimately, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed, who had headed the government since 2009 but lost control of the country, was forced to urgently seek refuge in neighbouring India. Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate in economics, who arrived from London, became the leader of the government ad interim. His immediate tasks were:
- Arranging snap general elections. After several postponements, the elections are scheduled for February 12, 2026. It can be stated with confidence that this upcoming event is one of the key factors in Bangladesh’s current turbulence.
- Preventing a return to power of the Awami League party. The party, which played a key role in the country’s struggle for independence in the 1960s, was literally barred from participating in the elections. Its activities were “suspended” with a governmental decree in May 2025. And it is interesting to note, though, that the period of Bangladesh’s rapid economic growth was associated particularly with the Awami League and Sheikh Hasina.
However, following a court hearing on November 17, 2025, Sheikh Hasina was sentenced to death. Subsequently, Muhammad Yunus demanded the extradition of the former prime minister from the Indian government, which, apart from the postponed elections, contributed significantly to the further deterioration in bilateral relations.
A perilous threshold was reached after a series of high-profile events in the second half of December last year.
A Series of Murders and Demonstrations: Escalation of the Conflict
The key event was the attempt at assassinating the leader of the 2024 summer student protests, Sharif Osman Hadi, in Dhaka on December 18. He was immediately transported to a hospital in Singapore, where he died the following day. Although the perpetrator’s identity remains unknown, the version of an “Indian trace” has gained ground. This sparked not only mass anti-Indian demonstrations and violent clashes in Bangladesh but also triggered a similar “reaction” in India. For instance, in the Indian state of Odisha, a migrant from the neighbouring state of West Bengal was lynched after being “mistaken” for a Bangladeshi citizen.
Tension in Bangladesh: Dark Emotions, Political Intrigue, and Heirs to Power
Once again, there have come to the surface the dark emotions of the mob, prone to simplified explanations for complex social phenomena. Popular “scapegoats,” be it “Jews,” “Anglo-Saxons,” or “communists,” have again become targets of blame. In such conditions, controlling the agitated crowd becomes vital for those who recently instigated it. M. Yunus’s public address on the matter was a shining example.
This appeal appears timely, given that the most active “students” are already threatening to block India’s group of northeastern states, known as the “Seven Sisters.” These states are connected to the country’s mainland by a narrow “corridor” resembling a “chicken’s neck.” The situation in some of these states, such as Assam, has long been incendiary even without any interference from the outside. To clarify the recent “incidents,” each side has already summoned the other’s ambassador.
Here comes a natural conclusion: the leadership of both countries must take urgent measures to preserve at least minimal frameworks for interstate relations.
Political Stage Sees the Heirs of Influential Bangladeshi Women
The long-standing rivalry between two political clans is directly relevant to the events in Bangladesh. On one side is the Awami League party led by Sheikh Hasina, and on the other is the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Khaleda Zia. In the 1980s, both charismatic women, exposed to personal tragedies, united in the struggle against the military junta.
However, it all happened many moons ago, and the elderly women are now in a state of fierce political competition. Notably, both of them are out of the current electoral race. Sheikh Hasina, as mentioned, has stepped away from active politics, and Khaleda Zia has been in extremely serious medical condition in the hospital since early December.
But their sons have taken up the baton of struggle. On December 25, after 17 years in London, Dhaka saw the return of 60-year-old Tarique Rahman, son of Khaleda Zia. He has been leading the BNP online since 2018. A week earlier, 54-year-old Sajeeb Wazed Joy, Sheikh Hasina’s son residing in the US, made his presence known. He accused M. Yunus of intending to rig the elections and bring radical Islamists to power and announced his plans for a visit to India. It cannot be ruled out that in the face of the threat outlined by Sheikh Hasina’s son, the “secular” parties, the BNP and the Awami League, could restore their cooperation.
In this regard, it is interesting to note that some American experts in the late 1990s blamed British intelligence services for standing behind radical Islamism and “international terrorism.” Here, it would be appropriate to discuss the popular issue of the “struggle between Trumpists and globalists” in the context of the situation in Bangladesh. However, we will refrain from doing so, not due to the lack of attention to the topic, but due to the author’s insufficient information necessary for the discussion. As for the prolonged residence of one “son” in Britain and the other in the US, perhaps it is simply a matter of preferences.
On the External Dimension of Recent Events in Bangladesh
This dimension has already been outlined, but partially. The current authorities in Dhaka are restoring ties with Pakistan, severed in 1971 after Bangladesh gained independence. India, just as a reminder, assisted this rupture decisively. What is left for everyone is to hope for the current revival of relations with Pakistan not leading to an irreversible deterioration of ties with India.
The US and UK are so far acting cautiously, not betting exclusively on either India or Pakistan, while asserting their presence in South Asia.
Last but not least, the relations of South Asian countries with the PRC have now become key in transforming the regional situation. This topic requires separate consideration.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on Asia-Pacific issues
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