At the turn of 2026 and 2027, India, as a key global player, carried out a number of events that will undoubtedly influence global political processes.
Strengthening the Ruling Party’s Position Domestically
The BJP’s decisive victory in the local elections in Maharashtra, the second-largest state by population (approximately 130 million people), held in mid-January, was further evidence of its strengthening position. The party has dominated India for 12 years. This event is particularly significant given the controversial results of the parliamentary and state assembly elections in the state two years earlier. It’s no coincidence that Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed gratitude to the people of Maharashtra for the trust they placed in his party.
The municipal election results in Maharashtra confirm the BJP’s claim to be the only national party, a status lost by its main opponent, the Indian National Congress. The presence of such a party in such a complex country with numerous potential internal contradictions is critical, firstly, for maintaining the integrity of the state and, secondly, for shaping its foreign policy aspirations on the global stage.
It’s important to emphasize that the BJP is strengthening its position through transparent elections, free from significant administrative manipulation, and with high voter turnout. In Maharashtra, for example, voter turnout in 29 municipal constituencies averaged 55%. This also explains the leading position of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who can already be considered one of India’s outstanding statesmen of the independence era, enjoying undisputed authority on the international stage.
India between China and the US: A New Stage of Maneuvering
In the second half of last year, India’s foreign policy strategy, actively maneuvering in the global power field, revealed important nuances. First and foremost, the seemingly irreversible foreign policy drift toward the United States has slowed. This trend was largely triggered by the sharp deterioration in relations between New Delhi and Beijing at the beginning of this decade, following the well-known incident in Ladakh in 2020.
It is important to emphasize that mutual territorial claims over border areas totaling approximately 130,000 square kilometers are merely the outward manifestation of deeper difficulties in Sino-Indian relations. These fundamental reasons largely motivated India’s rapprochement with the United States, which began immediately after the end of the Cold War.
The slowdown in this rapprochement was the inevitable consequence of the current US administration’s miscalculation, which pressured New Delhi by attempting to block purchases of Russian oil. A direct result of the cooling in bilateral relations was the delay in holding the next Quad summit. This format, which also includes Japan and Australia, is of particular importance to both countries, and its holding in India was expected before the end of last year.
However, neither the aforementioned cooling in US-Indian relations nor the partial restoration of India’s ties with China are radical. Positive signs in Sino-Indian relations include:
– The resumption of bilateral air traffic.
– The simplification of visa requirements for Chinese businessmen.
– Facilitation of visits by Indian Buddhists to sacred sites in Tibet.
– China’s lifting of recent restrictions on the export of rare earth metals.
– India’s stated intention to allow Chinese companies to participate in tenders for a number of projects.
At the same time, “misunderstandings” continue to arise periodically in border areas.
The inauguration ceremony of the new US ambassador to India symbolized the desire to resolve differences between New Delhi and Washington.
India Strengthens Ties with Japan and Europe Amid Global Uncertainty
India’s foreign policy demonstrates a clear trend toward expanding cooperation with Japan, European countries, and the European Union. This initiative is resonating positively with its partners.
Japan-India Relations: From Infrastructure to Strategy
One of the key recent events was the visit of Japanese Foreign Minister Tokio Motegi to India from January 15-17. The purpose of the visit was to hold the 18th Ministerial Strategic Dialogue and prepare for the upcoming summit.
Despite the relatively modest volume of bilateral trade (approximately $23 billion per year), the main area of cooperation remains the development of transport and logistics infrastructure both in India and abroad. A symbol of this progress was the Indian Metro, which Minister Motegi rode during his visit.
However, it seems likely that the political and strategic dimension of bilateral relations will gain importance in the near future. This was already evident during the visit. Some analysts even suggest that Motegi’s visit could be considered as an alternative to the cancelled Quad summit, which was aimed at strengthening cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.
European Direction: Intensifying Contacts and Strategic Agreements
In the second half of last year, there was a growing mutual interest in developing relations between India and leading European countries, as well as the EU as a whole. This was reflected in an intensification of high-level visits.
In early January, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited India. During his visit, 27 bilateral documents were signed. Of particular note is the agreement on the joint development and construction of six submarines for the Indian Navy, worth over $8 billion. Some Indian experts see this as a sign of a shift in priorities “from China to India” by the leading European country; however, in our view, such a conclusion may be premature. An equally significant event was the invitation of European Commission President Wojciech von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa as guests of honor to events celebrating Republic Day, India’s main national holiday. For European leaders facing domestic challenges, this invitation was an important diplomatic gesture.
India defends its position on the international stage
Attempts to pressure India over Russian oil purchases, undertaken by Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski during his visit on January 19, were unsuccessful. This confirms New Delhi’s intention to maintain constructive relations with Moscow. Despite a decrease in Russian oil purchases in recent months, this is not due to pressure from Poland or other European countries.
Overall, growing uncertainty on the global stage is forcing all leading players, including India, to actively maneuver, often demonstrating contradictory and difficult-to-predict behavior.
Vladimir Terekhov, Asia-Pacific expert
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