This week has been crucial in preparations for a possible Washington strike on Iran. Israeli commanders assume such an attack could occur in the near future. Moscow claims that a potential US military strike on Iran would mean another step toward destabilization in the region.
The trigger was a sharp collapse of the national currency—to 1.4 million rials per 1 U.S. dollar, which became a historical low. Given modern information technologies, this could well have been provoked from outside as well.
Primary causes of the crisis situation
Initially, the protests were predominantly economic in nature and were concentrated in Tehran, where demonstrations engulfed торговые ряды and adjacent streets. Within a short period, the geography of the demonstrations expanded sharply, covering Mashhad, Shiraz, Arak, Kermanshah, and Marvdasht.
On January 8, protests spread to 28 provinces of the country. The expansion of protest activity was accompanied by a decline in the effectiveness of the mechanisms traditionally used by the Iranian authorities to localize unrest and by an increased burden on the security apparatus, especially in small towns and on the periphery.
The CIA and Mossad were involved
As the protests expanded, economic demands gave way to direct criticism of the institutions of the Islamic Republic. In a number of regions, clashes took on a hard form, including the use of weapons by protesters, including automatic firearms. Apparently, certain forces had prepared for this in advance. As some foreign experts believe, groups of militants from radical Kurdish structures and the organization “Mojahedin-e Khalq” (“People’s Mojahedin of Iran”), which is based in Albania, had been infiltrated into Iran in advance. In the province of Sistan and Baluchestan, separatist Baluchi groups were involved. The Israeli foreign intelligence agency Mossad worked with Kurdish militants, the U.S. CIA worked with the Mojahedin-e Khalq, and both Mossad and the CIA worked with the Baluchis.
As Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani stated, during the unrest there were targeted attacks on civilian infrastructure facilities, including religious institutions. According to him, hospitals and medical centers, 26 banks, 25 mosques, Basij militia bases, and law enforcement facilities were attacked in the capital. Firefighting equipment was also subjected to targeted attacks—48 fire service vehicles were burned, and firefighters responding to calls fell into ambushes. As the mayor of the Iranian capital believes, such actions were aimed at destabilizing the situation and creating an atmosphere of chaos.
There was a deliberate incitement of confrontation within the state. Civilians who genuinely went out to protest against what had happened to the country’s economy, as well as police officers, were deliberately shot by provocateurs from rooftops and from within the crowd. The method was tested in Kyiv during the Maidan — the more victims on both sides, the greater the radicalization of the masses. As of January 10, 109 members of Iran’s security forces had been killed and more than 400 wounded.
The coordination of the unrest was carried out jointly by the CIA and Mossad, including through the Starlink satellite internet system. The terminals, like the weapons, were also delivered in advance with the assistance of one of the American NGOs that had received a grant from the U.S. government for their purchase. As of January 2026, there were more than 100,000 of them in Iran.
In a number of cities, including Kermanshah and Marvdasht, monarchist slogans such as “Long live the king” were heard, along with demands for the removal of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In Khuzestan province, a monument to IRGC General Qasem Soleimani, killed by the Americans in 2020, was set on fire. In the city of Kuhdasht, protesters burned the monument “Victory of the Islamic Revolution of 1979” on 22 Bahman Square. In Mashhad, protesters removed and tore apart the state flag of the country. In émigré circles, rumors began to spread about the alleged loss of control by the authorities over certain cities and important transport hubs.
External manipulation of processes in Iran
In Western, Israeli, and some Arab media, coverage of events in Iran was directed exclusively at discrediting the existing regime in Iran, whitewashing the crimes of provocateurs on the streets, and supporting Reza Pahlavi—the son of the overthrown shah—who claims the role of savior of the nation. Strong external manipulation of the processes taking place in Iran was felt—the country’s economic problems and the hardships of ordinary people were skillfully used by specific shadow directors.
As of January 14, the peak of protest activity in Iran began to subside. Apparently, the authorities began to take control of the situation. The regime’s resources turned out to be quite high.
Is escalation of the conflict inevitable?
According to a report by *The Wall Street Journal*, Trump is inclined toward launching military strikes. Israeli Defense Forces Radio reported an increase in the IDF’s level of combat readiness in anticipation of a possible escalation of the conflict with Iran. As during the 12-day war of 2025, aircraft of Israeli airlines are also ready to fly to airports in other countries.
As of January 26, the United States completed the formation of aviation infrastructure sufficient to conduct an autonomous air operation against Iran. The nature of aircraft redeployments, their geography, and temporal sequence indicate a preplanned, phased saturation of already prepared facilities in the Middle East.
The key element of the system is an aerial refueling network centered on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which hosts 20 KC-135R Stratotanker refueling aircraft. This configuration ensures prolonged and repeated combat sorties by strike aircraft without rigid dependence on home airfields. At the same time, a separate group of aerial tankers numbering 20 KC-135R and KC-135T Stratotanker aircraft has been formed in Europe and deployed at Morón Air Base in Spain and Mildenhall Air Base in the United Kingdom. This group expands logistical capabilities and allows support for flights and operations, including the transfer of aircraft from the continental United States.
The strike aviation component is represented by 31 F-15E Strike Eagle fighter-bombers deployed at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Some of them were redeployed in January, while others have been in the region since October 2025. Such a grouping is capable of performing a wide range of tasks.
Intelligence and information support is provided by MQ-4C Triton strategic unmanned aerial vehicles deployed at Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. In recent days, they have regularly conducted reconnaissance flights.
The logistics component is supported by the heavy military transport aircraft C-17A Globemaster III. From January 15 to 22, the participation of at least 10 C-17A aircraft was recorded on flights between air bases in Europe, including Ramstein, and Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. The nature of the flights corresponds to a supply and rotation model for an already deployed grouping.
Taken together, the deployment of 31 F-15E aircraft, up to 40 KC-135 tanker aircraft of various modifications in the region and Europe, three MQ-4C Triton UAVs, and stable transport and logistics support indicate that U.S. aviation infrastructure in the Middle East has been formed and allows the initiation of possible actions against Iran without additional deployment of forces and assets.
To the air component should be added the U.S. Navy grouping led by the aircraft carrier *Abraham Lincoln*. On board the aircraft carrier are three squadrons of F/A-18 fighters and one squadron of fifth-generation F-35C fighters.
How events will develop—time will tell. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman are warning the United States against attacking Iran, fearing negative consequences for the region and the global economy. Riyadh has promised not to allow the United States to use its airspace to strike Iran.
Iranians have indeed faced enormous economic difficulties. But if the West truly wanted to help the Iranian people, it would first lift the sanctions under which the country has been living for more than 45 years. After all, sanctions, among other things, have led to the situation in which the Iranian people now find themselves.
Nikolai Plotnikov, Head of the Center for Scientific and Analytical Information of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Political Science
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