Post-Sheikh Hasina Wajid political turmoil, a rise in anti-India sentiments, its diplomatic fallout, and militarization on the country’s Western border are igniting regional militarization and mistrust that jeopardize South Asia’s regional stability.
A Cyclical History of Bangladesh–India Relations
With the ouster of Sheikh Hasina Wajid from power, a new anti-India interim government was installed in Dhaka. The prime reason behind the formation of an anti-India interim government is the historic alliance between the Awami League and New Delhi. However, this alliance was formed due to India’s support for the Awami League in its fight against Pakistan in the war of 1971. Sheikh Hasina Wajid’s asylum in India after her ouster from power in Bangladesh further deteriorated bilateral relations between the two nations.
Assassinations, Protests, and Rising Diplomatic Tensions
Nonetheless, the relations between Bangladesh and India reached a new nadir after the recent assassination of Sharif Osman Hadi, the leader of anti-Hasina government student protests. He lost his life after sustaining gunshot injuries in an assassination attempt in the country’s capital on December 12. Following this brutal incident, a host of people gathered in the country to protest against the assassination attempt. Many protesters allege that India-backed Awami League supporters were involved in this assassination. However, no protester has been able to show any evidence behind this allegation. The situation in the country further deteriorated after the subsequent assassination of Muhammad Motaleb Sikder in Khulna Division on December 22.
On December 23, the Foreign Ministry of Bangladesh summoned the Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka for the second time in a period of merely 2 weeks, raising security concerns about the country’s diplomatic missions in India. The ministry condemned the attacks on the Bangladeshi diplomatic missions in India, underscoring that such incidents compromise diplomatic safety and erode principles of mutual peace and respect. Bangladesh urged the Indian government to investigate these attacks, prevent any such future occurrences, and ensure the safety and security of its diplomatic missions in accordance with international norms.
Regional Fallout and the Risk of Escalation
The attacks on the Bangladeshi diplomatic missions in India are jeopardizing peace between the two sides. In response to the assassinations of the youth leaders in Bangladesh and attacks on Bengali missions in India, Hasnat Abdullah, a leader of the newly established youth-led National Citizen Party (NCP), stated that destabilization of Bangladesh would have cross-border repercussions. He further threatened India by stating that Dhaka could offer sanctuary to “separatist and anti-India forces,” threatening that the country could use proxy groups to isolate and dismember India’s northeastern region.
This rising anti-India sentiment and protests in Bangladesh sparked a reaction in India as well. Anti-Bangladesh protests erupted in different regions of the country, including New Delhi, Kolkata, and many other Indian cities. Supporters of Vishva Hindu Parishad (VHP) and Bajrang Dal activists organized protests outside the Bangladeshi embassy over the lynching of a Hindu citizen in Bangladesh. Protesters chanting slogans like “safety for Hindus in Bangladesh” and “Hindu Hindu Bhai Bhai (all Hindus are brothers)” attempted to march towards the Bengali diplomatic missions. However, security forces prevented them from reaching the Bangladeshi embassy.
Indeed, this situation is alarming not only for Bangladesh and India but also for the whole South Asian region. Many proxy groups and international hostile powers are active on both sides of the border. These proxy groups and hostile forces from either side could exploit these rising tensions and mistrust between the two sides. The bilateral alliance between Pakistan and Bangladesh has also strengthened since the establishment of an interim setup in Dhaka. This alliance poses a significant security threat to India, as it shares a historical rivalry with Islamabad.
Reportedly, India has already increased its military installations on its border with Bangladesh. It is also considering the construction of a new military base in Mizoram. However, these new tensions between Bangladesh and India are not only a bilateral issue but also a potential stress assessment for South Asia’s regional stability. Both sides need to address each other’s concerns and immediately act to build mutual trust through backdoor diplomacy. Otherwise, these issues could transform into a prolonged strategic liability, leading the whole region into a broader regional war. Regional powers also need to play their role in bridging the widening gulf between the two sides to establish regional peace and security.
Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics
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