A remark about a possible response to an escalation of the situation around Taiwan, made on November 7 of this year by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during a meeting of one of the parliamentary committees, became the reason for a serious scandal in Japan-China relations that has not subsided to this day.
Domestic Political Background
Especially considering that present-day Japan has more than enough of its own, almost fundamental, problems requiring primary attention. Already in the midst of the scandal with the PRC, S. Takaichi herself named the threat of depopulation as the main one. The situation in the economy is no better, as evidenced by the country’s GDP contraction in the third quarter of this year by a full 1.8%.
As for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), this routine event is also important in itself. Because after losing its majority in parliament last autumn, the LDP has to somehow coordinate the fundamental document of the country’s functioning for the next year with the opposition. At the same time, it is watching with considerable apprehension the newcomer in the form of the Sansēitō party, which is continuously gaining weight in the LDP’s traditional electoral field.
That is, the question “What does Taiwan have to do with any of this?” does not seem idle at all. It is difficult to come up with any answer other than that the “unexpected” raising of this issue was planned in advance.
What Exactly S. Takaichi Said
As far as can be understood, the question to S. Takaichi consisted of two parts. The first concerned an assessment of the likelihood of a hypothetical blockade and invasion of Taiwan by the PRC’s armed forces; the second concerned Japan’s possible reaction to this. With a special desire, one can, of course, discern a connection between the problem outlined in the question addressed to S. Takaichi and the topic of forming Japan’s state budget. Namely, in that part of the Prime Minister’s answer that spoke of the need to “rescue Japanese citizens,” associated, of course, with certain costs, including financial ones.
Regarding precisely which “Japanese citizens” would need to be “rescued” in this case, we note that their number on the island is continuously growing, as the scale of bilateral cooperation expands year by year. In particular, the “Office” of the Tokyo-based Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association is located in Taipei, effectively performing the functions of an embassy. Among its staff, there is even a (quasi) military attaché.
However, in Japan in recent years, the prospect of an escalation of the situation around Taiwan has also been linked to the so-called “problem of defending remote islands.” This includes a group of islands in the Japanese-owned Ryukyu archipelago, which are located near Taiwan. Although the most populated of them, Ishigaki, with a population of 50 thousand people, is at a considerable distance of 300 km from Taiwan. But under the pretext of a threat allegedly emanating from a possible escalation of the Taiwan problem, bases for contingents of the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) are being built on these islands.
And nevertheless, more or less serious troubles in relations with the PRC would most likely not have followed if S. Takaichi had limited herself to the aforementioned phrase on the topic of “rescuing Japanese citizens.” But she added to it an assessment of the PRC’s possible use of military force to resolve the Taiwan problem as a source of “existential threat” to Japan. This (rather by default) implies some involvement of the JSDF in a conflict. It is for this reason that after the discussed remark by S. Takaichi, things in Japan-China relations, as they say, “started rolling downhill.”
Reaction to S. Takaichi’s Remark
The author has not observed such a flow of negativity directed towards Japan in the public space of the PRC for a long time. This is despite the fact that just a week before S. Takaichi’s ill-fated statement, some positivity seemed to be emerging in Japan-China relations.
Today, a continuous series of sharp articles accompanied by unflattering illustrations regarding S. Takaichi personally are appearing. Some managed to read on the website of the Chinese consulate in Osaka a promise, however immediately deleted, to slit her “dirty throat.” The PRC Embassy in Tokyo posted on its website a statement no less harsh in meaning, but without excessive verbal sharpness. The Global Times newspaper published it under the headline “No renunciation of use of force, no compromise regarding external interference.” The PRC Foreign Ministry announced that there were no plans to hold a previously agreed meeting between Premier Li Qiang and S. Takaichi on the sidelines of the upcoming G20 Summit.
The situation around the group of uninhabited Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands has escalated. Warnings were issued from both sides to schoolchildren and students studying in the neighboring country to be vigilant about possible provocations. The relevant PRC ministry issued a “strong reminder” to refrain from tourist trips to Japan. This is despite the fact that in recent years, Chinese citizens have been among the leaders among foreign visitors to Japan, whose tourism sector is experiencing an unprecedented boom. In turn, Japan’s Ministry of Economic Security issued a statement on the need to “overcome dependence” on China, which is its main trading partner.
At the same time, attempts are being made at a certain détente in the suddenly aggravated bilateral relations. In particular, a special envoy of the Japanese Foreign Ministry went on an emergency trip to Beijing, which, however, ended in nothing. In general, everything immediately became very bad in Japan-China relations, which is why leaders of the Japanese opposition also reacted sharply negatively to the discussed remark by the Prime Minister.
As for the reaction of “third” players, a positive characterization of S. Takaichi’s remark quite expectedly came from the leadership of Taiwan. However, for Tokyo, the support expressed on this issue by the US Ambassador to Japan seems much more important. “Understanding” of S. Takaichi’s position was shown by one of the senior officers of the US Navy, Admiral J. Codl, who, by the way, is appearing in public space more and more often. Notably, however, is the negative reaction on the same matter from the Speaker of the South Korean Parliament.
Finally, let us note an important circumstance: due to the fact that, unlike the US position, Japan generally avoids any official specifics regarding the Taiwan issue. This was outlined back in the bilateral Communique of 1972, which restored diplomatic relations. At that time, the Japanese side only expressed “understanding” of the meaning of the formula proposed by the Chinese colleagues regarding this problem. But no recognition by Japan of the fact of the island belonging to the PRC is recorded in this document.
That is, the latest, and certainly not the last, regrettable incident discussed here only reflected one aspect of the rather deep and long-standing difficulties in relations between the two leading powers of East Asia.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on Asia-Pacific issues
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