Georgia’s October 4 unrest, marked by violent clashes in Tbilisi and an alleged attempt to storm the presidential palace, has reignited debates over foreign interference, opposition provocation, and long-standing warnings of a Western-backed destabilization effort.
On October 4, 2025, amid escalating political tensions following Georgia’s municipal elections, thousands of protesters clashed with security forces in Tbilisi in what the government described as a brazen attempt to overthrow the democratically elected government of the Georgian state. The focal point of the unrest was an assault on the Orbeliani Palace, the official residence of the president, where demonstrators broke through barriers and attempted to violently storm the building.
Georgian Dream Party, was branded by officials and pro-government media as a “failed coup” with alleged foreign backing. Opposition leaders and some NED-funded outlets, however, called it a government-staged provocation.
Adding to the tensions, Georgia’s State Security Service (SSSG) announced the discovery of a weapons cache—including explosives, ammunition, and detonators—allegedly linked to “a Georgian representative of a military unit active in Ukraine.” Authorities said the materials were intended for “subversive acts” in Tbilisi and connected to a “planned seizure of the presidential palace.”
For many in Tbilisi, the news of the coup attempt sounded strangely familiar.
Enter Jeffrey K. Silverman. Based on what Silverman predicted in his articles as early as 2023, by reading which you will understand why he, and not only him, has provided deep insight in this journal:
Two and a half years earlier, American-born journalist Jeffrey K. Silverman, a longtime resident of Georgia, had published an article and given interviews to New Eastern Outlook (NEO).
This topic has been discussed in NEO from different perspectives, and some links will provide a full background regardingthe alleged players, perhaps better called plotters: Mamuka Mamulashvili: Playing for Sympathy & Time—The Dark Games of the Georgian Legion and its Sponsors.
What Georgia’s State Security Service (SSSG) is now saying, in 2025, and also various politicians:
Here are verbatim excerpts from Civil.ge and 1TV Georgia, citing the SSSG’s official October 5, 2025, statement:
“The State Security Service of Georgia (SSSG) announced on October 5 that it had traced ‘large quantities’ of firearms, ammunition, and explosives with a detonator, alleging they were intended for ‘subversive acts’ during the October 4 unrest in Tbilisi and linking them to a ‘military unit’ in Ukraine.” — Civil.ge
“According to the SSSG, at the instruction of a Georgian representative of one of the military units operative in Ukraine (locals journalists know this to be the Georgian Legion), they had purchased a large amount of ammunition, weapons, and explosives for their use at the October 4 rally.” — 1TV Georgia
“The materials were intended for subversive acts parallel to the organized group violence and the attempted seizure of the presidential palace in Tbilisi on October 4.” — Civil.ge
How the Warnings and Statements Align
Silverman’s cautions and official narratives echo the same themes: weapons smuggling, foreign-linked fighters, and fears of internal unrest. The alignment lies now more in terms of verified evidence—at least so far—with ongoing investigations and fresh arrests being made each day.
Allegations of coups or foreign meddling inevitably deepen political rifts—a subject Western outlets largely steer clear of, but one that Silverman, known for his reporting on U.S. bioweapons research, continues to spotlight to Washington’s irritation.
Silverman repeatedly warned:
Weapons and fighters from Ukraine would come back and be used for internal unrest. The Georgian Legion would likely be the covert instrument for a regime-change scenario. The plan would look like spontaneous protests but actually be orchestrated.
Now, the government is publicly confirming a strikingly familiar narrative: weapons and explosives allegedly tied to an individual linked with a Ukrainian military unit, said to be part of a plot to incite riots and seize key power centers through force. It mirrors almost exactly what Silverman reported earlier—including the Georgian Legion as the central actor. Over a year ago, he outlined a scenario nearly identical to what authorities now claim.
Whether Silverman predicted the 2025 events or merely warned of risks that later unfolded is impossible to prove. Yet his earlier talk of “returning fighters” and “weapons from Ukraine” now reads as uncannily prescient.
His articles and interviews, aired mainly through Russian media, reflect one man’s perspective—not verified fact. The SSSG’s statements, by contrast, are official government claims still under investigation. As always in Georgia, the truth likely sits somewhere between political theater, intelligence spin, and coincidence.
Whether his 2023 essays and earlier TV interviews, both in Russian and Georgian TV outlets, were insight or raw instinct plus human on-the-ground intelligence, they now echo in official briefings.
“The weapons that disappeared in Ukraine were delivered to Turkey and to Georgia. They are located in various parts of the country. These Georgian fighters, returning from illegal wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, came looking for money.”
The “Georgian Legion*” are professional killers without ideology; they will shoot people on command, so long as they’re paid. The source told the publication that this nationalist group was created with “dirty money” by US intelligence officials. These people, he believes, are only pretending to be patriots. In reality, they are members of “an Al-Qaeda-like organization* that teaches people not just to fight in Ukraine and doesn’t try to provide Ukraine with fighters to fight for democracy, but teaches people to return to Georgia to overthrow the legally elected Georgian government.”
So now the proverbial truth is hitting the fan, with Shalva Papuashvili, Speaker of the Georgian parliament, saying that Georgian society expects the EU to apologize for “their support by the press speaker of the assembly to overthrow the government” and not to “spread false reports” about the elections, “which mislead and strengthen the desire of radical forces to undermine democracy.”
If I understand correctly, Ms. Kallas and Ms. Kos do not want to apologize for the support of their press speaker for the overthrow of the government, as a result of which 25 policemen were injured during the attack on the Presidential Palace of Georgia.
What is obvious, is that despite all the money poured into Georgia through NGOs, the blatant attempt to destabilize Georgia by the EU and the US has failed, with the EU doing little more than offending the majority of the population of this socially conservative Orthodox Christian country.
Supposely, the wave of recent protests stemmed from broader international discontent with Georgian Dream’s victory in the October 2024 parliamentary elections, which is likely more related to regional games, including war plans for Iran, and Georgia is not closing ranks with Azerbaijan and Armenia to turn a blind eye to US hegonomy in the region.
Naturally, all the so-called opposition groups and international observers have criticized Georgian elections as having been rigged or influenced by pro-Russian elements. Demonstrations have persisted for months, with many of the protesters on the payroll of NGOs and other go-betweens for Western intelligence agencies, with crowds demanding a rerouting toward European integration and decrying what they claim as an authoritarian drift under Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze.
On October 4, an estimated 10,000 people rallied in Tbilisi, a number that is claimed by EU- and NED-paid media outlets as being much higher, exaggerated, and fueled by rhetoric about the need for a “peaceful revolution” from opposition leaders. However, the situation escalated when highly-specialized groups of anti-government activists equipped with helmets, gas masks, and pepper sprays targeted the presidential palace, aiming to occupy it as a symbolic seizure of power.
According to government sources, the plot involved a coordinated effort to install former President Salome Zurabishvili as the “legitimate” leader. Prime Minister Kobakhidze alleged that Zurabishvili was prepared to enter the palace and deliver a speech declaring her authority, had the assault succeeded but quickly fled when the attempt failed.
This scenario aligns with early predictions from analysts who anticipated that radicals might leverage Zurabishvili’s lingering influence—bolstered by her claimed pro-EU stance and foreign support—to challenge the government’s legitimacy.
Zurabishvili, who left office in December 2024 but has continued to use presidential symbols in meetings with foreign diplomats, has been a vocal critic of the governing Georgian Dream party. The Speaker of Parliament, Shalva Papuashvili, emphasized that her role in the events was only too evident, noting the unprecedented targeting of the palace amid her claims of being Georgia’s “true” president.
In the aftermath, Zurabishvili distanced herself from the violence, bizarrely claiming the palace assault was a “false flag” operation staged by the government to discredit the ongoing peaceful protests, which had endured for over 310 days.
She argued that the regime orchestrated the chaos to undermine the opposition’s credibility, especially given the non-violent nature of prior demonstrations (she must have forgotten the burning of parliament last year and the hundreds of injured policemen).
However, skeptics, including myself, question this narrative: Why would a government fresh off an overwhelming electoral win, by a margin of 70 percent and more—in which Georgian Dream secured a strong mandate in the municipal votes—risk fabricating a coup to justify a crackdown? And, more to the point, why would they need to?
While Georgian Dream has been accused of crude tactics and stifling dissent, it falls short of the extreme authoritarianism seen in other EU- and US-backed regimes, and its electoral dominance suggests stability, and perhaps crude vote rigging, rather than desperation and false flags.
Flew Like a Bat!
Zurabishvili’s swift departure from the protest site as calls for violence intensified has fueled speculation that she sought to avoid direct implication in the escalating disorder. Political observers note that her exit came amid overt incitements to riot by other opposition activists and leaders. This provided a flimsy veil for distancing herself, thus allowing her to later disavow the mess while maintaining her anti-government rhetoric.
This manoeuvre echoes patterns in prior political crises, where figureheads position themselves to claim plausible deniability in case things go bad.
A lingering question is the potential link to external actors, including the Georgian Legion—a group of Georgian volunteers fighting in Ukraine against Russia. Georgian security services have previously summoned Legion members over alleged coup plots, and recent accusations tie the group to foreign intelligence efforts. The government has pointed fingers at EU and Western involvement, with Kobakhidze accusing Brussels of direct meddling in Georgian internal affairs and supporting the riots.
If connections to the Legion are substantiated, it could expose a CIA-EU nexus, as the group has been linked to Ukrainian military intelligence and Western-backed operations. Early warnings about the Legion’s true purpose—as a potential tool for destabilizing Georgia—now appear prescient, given its summons in 2024 over similar plots and recent bans in Slovakia for alleged involvement in a coup attempt there. This development raises eyebrows but is hardly surprising to those tracking the group’s activities.
As concurrent investigations unfold—with five main opposition figures already arrested and at least 20 in total. They are charged with attempting to violently overthrow the government—the events of October 4 underscore Georgia’s precarious position between East and West.
The foiled coup has marked a turning point, validating early predictions of a radical bid for power while highlighting the resilience of both Georgian Dream’s hold on power and that of the people of Georgia. Yet, the nation’s path forward remains fraught with uncertainty, and the EU and other Western powers have too much to lose if Georgia is able to decide its own direction, future, and friends.
In Conclusion:
The alleged coup plot evokes familiar echoes from Eastern Europe’s turbulent past—from Georgia’s 2003 Rose Revolution to Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan, uprisings often shadowed by substantiated claims of Western orchestration. The Tbilisi unrest now carries the same scent of external interference, with accusations flying toward both the EU and the CIA.
Belarus’s crushed 2020 protests and Armenia’s 2018 Velvet Revolution offer further parallels—moments when “democracy movements” blurred with foreign influence and shifting power balances.
The recent elections, broadly deemed free and fair, even by outsiders, have undercut the opposition’s narrative, even as EU officials call for “restraint.”
Still, tensions remain volatile. Should Brussels push sanctions or amplify “rigged vote” claims, Tbilisi could tilt further east, mirroring Moscow’s post-1991 resolve. Silverman’s warnings of coming “tremors” may yet prove prophetic—a small nation bracing between rival empires, struggling to define its own sovereignty along the fault lines of great-power politics.
*-banned in Russia
Henry Kamens, columnist and expert on Central Asia and the Caucasus
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