As Georgia prepares for its October 4 local elections, a string of alarming incidents—from intercepted explosives to opposition provocations—raises fears that the country is becoming the next geopolitical battleground in the struggle between East and West.
With Ukraine and its European allies under pressure because of their wavering support for Kiev, the timing and tactics raise urgent questions about who benefits from chaos—and at what cost—and what the larger price to pay be?
Perfect Storm Brewing!
As reported by Georgian Public TV, Security forces arrested two Ukrainian nationals after uncovering 2.4 kg of hexogen, a potent explosive, hidden in a Mercedes-Benz transport at the Sarpi checkpoint on the Turkish-Georgian border on September 10, 2025. The truck, traveling from Ukraine through Romania and Bulgaria, crossed into Turkey. Authorities also seized eight phones, a computer, SIM cards, cash, and cocaine during the bust.
The explosive, allegedly handed to the driver in Ukraine for delivery to an unknown contact in Georgia, is under investigation to determine if Georgia was a transit point or target for a terrorist act. Charges include illegal possession of explosives and narcotics under Georgia’s Criminal Code. The State Security Service praised the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Prosecutor’s Office for their role in the operation.
It should come as no surprise that this incident, which should be described as “a potential international terrorist plot foiled,” is not covered, or at least only in a very limited way, in the European or Western media, and it raises my suspicions; it should yours too!
Nonetheless, the incident has been reported extensively in Georgian and Russian language sources but has not yet triggered widespread commentary in any major EU-based publications like BBC, Reuters, The Guardian, DW, Euronews, or France 24.
Searches across these sites yielded no direct hits, suggesting the story may be viewed as a local security matter or, more likely. The lack of coverage is influenced by Georgia’s tense pre-election climate and outside meddling.
Bulgarian journalist Eli Ilieva questioned why EU media isn’t covering it, claiming it challenges pro-Ukraine narratives funded by Brussels. The case closely echoes earlier statements made by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), which in October 2022 accused Ukraine of smuggling explosives through Georgia for the Kerch Bridge bombing in Crimea.
In addition, Georgia has previously intercepted Ukrainian attempts to smuggle explosives through Georgia, such as the case from 5th February 2024, where six separate bombs hidden in car batteries were uncovered by the State Security Service of Georgia. In response, the Georgian Prime Minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, warned that Ukraine was trying to spread the war.
More recently, in August 2024, the FSB claimed it had thwarted another Ukrainian attempt to attack the bridge. In both cases, Moscow implicated Georgian territory as the possible transit route, a narrative now repeated by the Georgian security service itself.
As the investigation proceeds, based on Georgian reports, the State Security Service of Georgia (SSSG) claims that it is examining “possible links” between former Defense Minister Bacho Akhalaia and his brother and father, who were part of the inner circle of former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili. The illegal import of explosive substances, such as hexogen from Ukraine, was standard operating procedure during that regime.
Bachana Akhalaia is not officially being named as a suspect; however, recent developments surrounding him “are of interest and are being studied,” the agency said in a statement.
Ledger of guilt or innocence!
The Russian and independent Georgian media see a pattern. The coverage by RT is revealing, noting how the 2.4 kg of EXPLOSIVE MATERIALS was smuggled from Ukraine through Turkey—quoting Georgian State Security Services, and how the material was found in the truck’s carefully disguised or hidden compartments
This fits a pattern, early in July, Georgia detained two people for handling and attempting to sell $3 million worth of uranium, which could have been used to make a deadly bomb—at least a dirty bomb!
The Georgian Dream, the ruling political party, is now openly accusing Ukraine of being involved in attempting to influence the municipal elections through this shipment of explosives, and based on other investigations, for instance, regarding the links between the Georgian Legion, Georgian mercenaries fighting in Ukraine against Russia as NATO proxy forces, and earlier efforts to destabilize and “possibly overthrow” the legally elected Georgian government immediately before and after the October 2024 elections, we can only say there is fire where there is smoke.
As Georgia edges closer to its next round of elections, the unanswered questions grow louder: Who benefits from stirring unrest in Tbilisi and elsewhere, who is involved, and who stands to benefit the most? Why are European media outlets silent on what could be a major international security breach? And just how far are external actors willing to go to tilt Georgia’s fragile balance?
Placed against the wider backdrop, the timing is hard to ignore. The West is struggling to sustain its proxy war in Ukraine, profits are drying up, and public support is waning. Rumors of war with Iran loom ever larger, with Israel maneuvering in the shadows and Washington walking a loose tightrope it can barely control. Georgia, caught between East and West, now risks becoming the next target for these blatant power plays.
It is also notable that the European public is starting to revolt, as seen in the massive protests recently held in London, where hundreds of thousands marched to protest Kier Starmer’s handling of everything from immigration to destroying the UK economy to support Ukraine. With the collapse of yet another French government, the rise of AfD in Germany, and the appallingly bad public popularity of Starmer, Macron, Merz, and Von der Leyen, it is obvious the Europeans and Americans are looking for some sort of policy “win” in the Cacuasus.
However, what happens in Tbilisi may not stay in Tbilisi. It could echo from Kyiv to Brussels, from Tehran to Tel Aviv. And if the fuse is already lit, October 4 might be remembered not as just another election day, but as the spark that revealed how fragile the entire geopolitical Great Game really is and how dreadfully close we are to World War 3.
Yet, Western media remains eerily silent, fueling conspiracy theories of EU complicity in pro-Ukraine narratives. The Georgian Dream party’s accusations against Ukraine and NATO proxies question who stands to gain from chaos in this East-West flashpoint, and it takes little imagination to understand who might be standing behind the scenes using Georgia as a fuse to ignite a larger regional conflict.
Amid waning Western support for Ukraine and looming Iran tensions, Georgia could be the next proxy battleground—proverbially a little Ukraine in waiting. The question is, despite the mounting pressure on Georgian Dream from the US and EU, particularly from the likes of the reprehensible US Senator Joe Wilson, who, while condemning the left-wing psychopaths who cheer the death of Charlie Kirk, provides material support to the same sort of left-wing psychopaths in Georgia, can the Georgian government weather the inevitable eternally organized and supported protests and riots that will follow the municipal elections, or has a tipping point been reached?
Opinion polls show that popular support for the ruling Georgian Dream party has increased since the 2024 parliamentary elections, with around 56% support, and the opposition is fractured, with no single opposition party polling more than 10%.
But will this matter in the end? It is blatantly obvious that the US and EU couldn’t give a fig what the Georgian public thinks. I just hope the elected government can hold their course.
It appears as though we will have a tense few weeks in Georgia for sure.
Henry Kamens, columnist and expert on Central Asia and Caucasus
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