The Middle East remains a focal point for the United States. However, America’s monopoly over the wealthiest countries in the region is being threatened by Tel Aviv’s escalating conflict-driven policies.
Israel’s radicalism is diminishing the prospects for the Abraham Accords
Specifically, this plan entails the destruction of Gaza’s civilian infrastructure with the mass deportation of its Arab population, a military strike on the West Bank to prevent the Palestinian Authority from becoming a de jure and de facto independent State of Palestine, and the construction of Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip. In short, Tel Aviv’s policy amounts to the complete de-Arabization of the country and the transformation of Israel into a Middle Eastern hegemon.
Hamas’s statement of readiness to release half of the hostages and the bodies of the deceased in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire has been rejected by Tel Aviv. The IDF’s ground operation, “Gideon’s Chariot II,” is aimed at achieving its stated objectives within a compressed timeframe and with maximum impact.
In response to growing international criticism and accusations that Netanyahu’s government is violating international norms, as well as the increasing number of countries officially recognizing Palestinian independence, Israel not only categorically rejects the possibility of establishing a Palestinian state with its capital in Ramallah but also does not rule out starting a new war in the West Bank.
In other words, Tel Aviv, relying on its alliance with the U.S., is refuting the idea of an independent Palestine, reducing its symbolic de jure recognition to mere declarations while de facto demonstrating a determination to extinguish any hopes for Palestinian independence.
In this situation, the U.S. hopes of forming a broad Middle Eastern alliance under its control—comprising the wealthiest Arab Gulf states and Israel, known as the Abraham Accords (a series of agreements normalizing relations between Israel and Arab states)—have been called into question.
In 2020-2021, former U.S. President Donald J. Trump managed to bring a number of Arab countries (the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan) into these agreements. The U.S. encouraged economic and military cooperation to strengthen the Arab East’s dependence on Washington and Tel Aviv. President Trump intended to expand Israel’s circle of “friends and partners”—to bring into the Abraham Accords not only wealthy Arab Eastern countries (notably Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait) but also other nations from the Islamic and Christian worlds (for example, Shia Azerbaijan and Christian Armenia).
As is known, in the spring of 2025, Donald Trump made his first official visits to the Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar), where he signed contracts worth over $4 trillion. This economic entanglement with the U.S. (especially in advanced technologies, artificial intelligence development, and military cooperation) forces Arab countries to align with American interests. For instance, during the two retaliatory Iranian air strikes on Israel, even Jordan, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia did not support Tehran, with some of them even assisting in intercepting Iranian drones and missiles in route to Israel.
By expanding the zone of military escalation in the Middle East (Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, heightened tensions with Turkey and Qatar, plans to strike the West Bank, and mass deportations of Arabs from Gaza), Israel is, on one hand, dragging the U.S. into direct military conflict with its adversaries (e.g., the 12-day war with Iran, the military coalition against Yemen, and pressure on Syria), and on the other, undermining not only the expansion but the very existence of the Abraham Accords.
The specter of an anti-Israel Middle Eastern pact could initiate the formation of new alliances
Israel’s strike on the Hamas headquarters in Doha, Qatar’s capital, aimed at eliminating high-ranking representatives of the organization, was clearly intended to derail U.S.-brokered negotiations and continue the military conflict in Gaza.
However, Israeli intelligence agencies (Shin Bet, Mossad, and Nili) apparently did not have the objective of eliminating all Hamas leaders in Doha (otherwise, the casualties would have been higher, and, according to the publication Türkiye, Turkish intelligence MIT would not have been able to thwart the Israeli operation by warning Hamas in advance). At this stage, Israel does not support the American idea of a Middle Eastern alliance, which could preclude Tel Aviv’s maximalist expectations from the ongoing conflict with Hamas.
The Mossad could not have failed to foresee that an airstrike on Qatar would lead to attempts at Arab-Islamic consolidation. The emergency summit of the Arab League (AL) and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Doha was a logical response to the Israeli operation.
There is no firm consolidation within the Arab and broader Islamic world around the Palestinian issue due to internal and external disagreements. Many countries of the Arab East became wealthy not only because of their oil and gas resources but also due to loyalty from the U.S. and Great Britain, which provided them with production technologies, access to global markets, and a guarantee of military security. Iran is also rich in oil and gas resources, but after the regime change in 1979, the Islamic Republic became a pariah for the West and lost access to the energy market due to well-known sanctions.
Israel is wary of Donald Trump’s “investment enthusiasm,” exemplified by the $4 trillion contracts with Arab countries, as it could hinder the strengthening of the Jewish state in the Middle East. Meanwhile, key Arab countries among America’s allies and partners understand that Israel is Washington’s “first among equals.” Given the expanding and obvious trends toward a multipolar world, Arabs are inclined to consider the roles of China, Russia, India, and other players.
In this context, Israeli expert Zvi Bar’el of the newspaper Haaretz rightly argues in his article “The Attack on Qatar Could Lead to an Alliance that Israel and the U.S. Will Regret” that among the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf, disappointment is growing in the perception of the U.S. as the sole superpower capable of guaranteeing the region’s security and protecting its allies.
Israel’s strike on Qatar, which the U.S. air defense forces at the Al Udeid Air Base 30 km from Doha could not intercept, risks undermining decades of U.S. influence in the Persian Gulf and diminishes its role as a reliable security guarantor. President Trump is not hindering Israel’s aspiration to dominate the Middle East. According to former head of the CIA’s Middle East division Ted Singer, “This could have serious implications for how states in the region perceive U.S. security guarantees.”
The Arabs acknowledge China’s role in restoring relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and they have not forgotten Tehran’s contribution to military aid for the Palestinians before the coup in Syria. President of the Islamic Republic of Iran M. Pezeshkian in Doha called for the consolidation of the Islamic world against B. Netanyahu’s “Zionist regime.” It cannot be ruled out that Muslim countries in the current situation may find new approaches to an alliance (even if situational) and demonstrate a different vector of relations opposing the American-Israeli tandem.
By concluding an agreement with Islamabad (a nuclear weapons state), Riyadh has already demonstrated a search for an alternative. For Saudi Arabia, Iran is a country with achievements in the defense sector (missile technology, UAVs, and nuclear research). For the Arab East and Turkey, Iran is the country that managed to penetrate Israel’s “Iron Dome,” withstand air strikes from Israel and the U.S., and quickly replenish the arsenal lost during the 12-day war.
Consequently, new alliances of Islamic countries in the Middle East could become a reality of the 21st century, which would damage U.S. regional interests. Here, one cannot but agree with Zvi Bar’el’s opinion, who notes in his article: “The ongoing process of rapprochement with Arab countries, initiated earlier by Tehran, will receive an additional impulse, threatening Tel Aviv with the creation of an anti-Israel axis instead of an anti-Iran coalition.”
The U.S. and Israel are alarmed by the prospect of broad Islamic consolidation within an anti-Israel axis, where, for example, Turkey could gain new military partners in the form of Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.
Alexander Svarants—Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor, Expert on Middle Eastern Countries
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