When Israel bombed Doha, the U.S. remained passive. Saudi Arabia took note—and turned to Pakistan. Their defence pact, nuclear umbrella included, is a blunt message: America’s shield no longer guarantees survival in the Gulf. A post-American order is emerging, and Riyadh has chosen its side.
The pact, which declares that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” effectively extends Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia.
Coming just days after Israeli strikes on Doha, the agreement has triggered speculation about whether the U.S. is losing its traditional role as the guarantor of Gulf security and whether a new order, marked by multipolar alignments, is taking shape.
Before the Pact: The Doha Shock
The catalyst for the pact under discussion was the Israeli attack on Doha on 9 September to kill Hamas negotiators. Qatar, a long-time U.S. partner and host to a major American military base, expected protection from its ally. Instead, Washington remained conspicuously silent, and according to certain analysts, the United States played an active role in favour of Israel by providing in-flight refueling for its fighter jets.
The events of September 2025 shattered that illusion
As Taut Bataut noted in Arab States Reconsider U.S. Alliance After Israeli Strikes on Doha (23 September 2025, NEO-Journal), the U.S. air defence system was inactive during the bombardment, signaling the “selective nature” of American security guarantees. The message to Gulf capitals was clear: U.S. protection is conditional and, above all, subordinated to Israeli interests.
This sense of betrayal reverberated widely. A summit in Doha brought together 70 Muslim countries, including both the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) members, all condemning Israel’s actions.
Patricia Lalonde of the French think tank Geopragma observed that the presence of Pakistan—“which has the bomb”—was especially significant, as it underscored the shift toward Muslim-led alternatives to U.S. security frameworks.
The Pact’s Content: Nuclear Ambiguity, Strategic Depth
The Saudi–Pakistan pact is striking in both symbolism and substance. While the full text has not been released, officials have confirmed that it includes nuclear guarantees. Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the royal court, told Le Monde (22 September 2025) that “the nuclear dimension is integral to the agreement,” recalling Riyadh’s past financial support to Pakistan’s nuclear programme. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif echoed this, stating that the kingdom could rely on Islamabad’s nuclear deterrent if needed.
This development not only bolsters Saudi Arabia’s defence posture but also strengthens Pakistan’s regional role.
As Rushali Saha argued in The Diplomat (22 September 2025), while Riyadh will be cautious not to entangle itself directly in Indo-Pakistani conflicts, the pact nonetheless leaves India more strategically isolated, especially after Washington revoked its sanctions waiver on the Chabahar port project in Iran.
Immediate Repercussions: Trust Shattered
The immediate repercussion of the Doha attack was a dramatic erosion of trust in U.S. security guarantees. Arab states that once saw Iran as their primary threat now perceive Israel as an unpredictable and potentially destabilising actor.
The Gulf monarchies, long dependent on the United States for their security, were shaken to discover that American bases offered no protection against Israeli strikes.
For Saudi Arabia, the fallout is particularly acute. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, once central to the Abraham Accords, has hardened his rhetoric, denouncing Israeli actions in Gaza as genocide. The possibility of Riyadh recognising Israel now seems remote. Instead, the kingdom is pivoting toward defence partnerships that bypass Washington.
Medium- and Long-Term Shifts: Multipolarity in Motion
Over the medium and long term, the pact has the potential to accelerate a multipolar reordering of the region. German analysts writing in Architects of a New Order (IPS, 22 September 2025) describe it as a “geopolitical bombshell,” one that tilts the balance away from a U.S.-centred “Pax Americana” toward “autonomous, multipolar structures.”
By choosing Pakistan as a partner, Saudi Arabia also gains indirect access to China. As Abdus Sabur observed, Pakistan serves as a “strategic bridge” between Riyadh and Beijing. With more than 70% of Pakistan’s weapons sourced from China, Saudi financial backing could effectively channel Gulf capital into Chinese defence industries, deepening the triangular link.
For Washington, the long-term damage is clear. Not only does the pact signal that its bases no longer guarantee the sovereignty of host states, but it also raises the prospect of Arab nations aligning with Russia or China. Taut Bataut concludes that the “alliance of the Arab nations with Russia, China, or other rising powers will further hasten the decline of U.S. hegemony.”
Winners and Losers
The pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan reshapes regional and global alignments, producing clear winners and losers. I dare to make the following summary:
Winners:
Saudi Arabia: Gains a credible deterrent against Israeli strikes and leverages through Pakistan to diversify away from U.S. dependency.
Pakistan: Secures financial aid, prestige, and the possibility of Saudi support against India.
Qatar: Emerges as a rallying point for Muslim solidarity after the Doha strike.
China: Benefits indirectly by deepening ties with both Riyadh and Islamabad, enhancing its role as an alternative security guarantor. The pact increases Beijing’s leverage through Pakistan while also funneling Gulf capital into Chinese defence and energy sectors.
Russia: Benefits indirectly from the Saudi–Pakistan pact, as it accelerates the erosion of U.S. hegemony in the Gulf, creating new opportunities for arms sales, energy coordination, and diplomatic positioning. Already present in Syria and cultivating ties with Iran, Russia can now position itself as a complementary security partner for Arab states wary of Washington’s selective guarantees.
Iran: Welcomes the weakening of U.S. hegemony, though it cautiously monitors Pakistan’s role.
Losers:
The United States: Suffers a credibility crisis, as its bases no longer signify security guarantees.
Israel: Faces growing isolation; even Egypt and Turkey, once divided, are coordinating militarily against it.
India: Finds itself more diplomatically constrained, as Saudi Arabia’s pact with Pakistan complicates New Delhi’s balancing act in the Gulf and a stronger Pakistan.
The European Union: Marginalised, unable to prevent escalating regional instability.
Other Gulf states, such as the UAE, Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait, are in a more ambiguous position. While some were signatories to the Abraham Accords, the Doha attack has forced them to reconsider the costs of alignment with Israel at the expense of intra-Arab solidarity.
Conclusion: A Game Changer?
Is the Saudi–Pakistan pact a true game changer? The answer lies in perception as much as in military substance. For decades, Gulf states believed that hosting U.S. bases equated to guaranteed protection.
The events of September 2025 shattered that illusion. As Le Monde well noted, the pact “upends regional balances” by demonstrating that “the U.S. bases in the Middle East do not represent a security guarantee for the host country.”
This does not mean the end of American power in the region. Washington still maintains an unmatched military capacity. But the pact signals that Gulf monarchies are no longer willing to entrust their survival solely to U.S. goodwill.
The emergence of a Saudi–Pakistani axis, with China and Russia in the background, marks the opening of a new chapter: one in which multipolarity, not American singularity, defines security in the Middle East.
For Israel, it is a warning. For the U.S., it is a wake-up call. For Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, it is the assertion that alternatives exist and that the architecture of regional security is being redesigned.
Ricardo Martins, PhD in Sociology, specializing in International Relations and Geopolitics
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