Following the agreements reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington, Turkey is beginning construction of a new railway line stretching from Nakhchivan to Baku.
Pashinyan Declares Principles for Streamlining Control Over Transit Through Zangezur
In his recent address to journalists on August 21, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia is ready to introduce any simplifications at all its border checkpoints (including Armenian-Azerbaijani crossings) in accordance with the five principles of the Washington Declaration: territorial integrity, sovereignty, national jurisdiction, inviolability of borders, and reciprocity. Pashinyan believes that digital technologies and the use of biometric passports will enable new customs and border control procedures. In particular, these would eliminate the need for routine inspections of cargo and passengers, greatly simplify export, import, and goods transit, and ultimately boost business development.
Simultaneously, as the peace treaty with Azerbaijan is being initialed, the Armenian leader considers it inappropriate to increase spending on defense and security, since peace with Baku appears to be within reach.
As for the idea of leasing the Zangezur route to the United States for 99 years, official Yerevan insists that an Armenian-American company will be created not to control the road, but strictly to handle business management.
In Azerbaijan, however, the outcome of the Washington talks is being presented differently. Officials there claim that Armenia has agreed to open the “Zangezur Corridor” under U.S. supervision. According to Azerbaijani politicians and experts, this would usher in a new era of Turkic integration by providing the shortest route linking Turkey through Azerbaijan to the other Turkic nations of Central Asia.
Baku envisions the link with Nakhchivan operating under a true “corridor logic” — that is, without any stops. At the same time, in line with the Washington Declaration, Azerbaijan has no intention of leasing even a single kilometer of its territory to the U.S. for a similar arrangement to manage the transit of Armenian goods and passengers. In other words, digitization and biometric passports for Armenian citizens will not prompt Azerbaijan to abandon classic customs and border controls for Armenian transit.
During the official visit of Iran’s president to Armenia on August 18–20, Yerevan sought to alleviate Tehran’s concerns about leasing the Zangezur route to an American private company. The Armenian side asserts that no U.S. troops will be stationed at the Iranian border and that streamlined transit controls will create new opportunities for trade and economic ties with Iran and other external partners.
The Persians, of course, have reacted positively to verbal assurances from their northern neighbor, yet they have also warned of the “red lines” tied to their national security. Iran and Armenia have signed around ten agreements aimed at revitalizing bilateral cooperation across various sectors — transport, communications, energy, tourism, trade, healthcare, and more. Both sides have announced their readiness to elevate relations to the level of a strategic partnership.
Turkey Moves Forward With Its Segment of the Future “Zangezur Corridor”
Naturally, Ankara welcomes the Washington agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia dated August 8 (it is quite clear that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan played a pivotal role in brokering this deal). Two weeks after the Washington summit, according to Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu, a groundbreaking ceremony for the Igdır-Aralık-Dilucu railway line will take place on August 22 in the Turkish city of Igdır. This line will become a key component of the “Zangezur Corridor,” connecting Turkey through Nakhchivan with Azerbaijan and the Turkic nations of Central Asia.
The prospect of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is being welcomed virtually across the globe. The question remains, however, how sustainable and long-lasting this peace will prove to be under the Washington framework. Will the so-called “Trump Route” become a guarantor of peaceful resolution in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, and will the Zangezur agenda in its American interpretation succeed in balancing the interests of other major players — including Russia, Iran, China, and India?
For now, one fact is clear: Turkey and Azerbaijan, buoyed by the high hopes of the Turkic states of Central Asia, view the Washington agreement as the green light for opening the “Zangezur Corridor” on the path to Europe. Will this strengthen the Turkic factor in the South Caucasus? The answer seems obvious. Will Armenia manage to preserve its sovereignty within this framework? Likely only in a formal sense — hardly anyone is asking Yerevan anymore.
Will the Zangezur route affect the interests of Iran, Russia, China, and India?
The answer to that question will most likely depend on the stance these countries adopt. In any case, the intensity of trade transit will inevitably impact their competitive capabilities and advantages.
For Iran, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the challenge will be to accelerate the development of its own logistics infrastructure through Armenia toward the Black Sea and to account for growing economic competition from Turkey.
Russia, while viewing the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal positively, is mindful of the specifics of the potential Zangezur transit route, which runs through the area where Russian border guards are stationed on the Armenian-Iranian frontier. Moscow also aims to deepen trade and economic ties with Armenia within the framework of the EAEU as well as on a bilateral basis.
China places particular importance on the Zangezur transit route — not only as part of its partnership with Iran and its access to the Georgian deep-water port of Anaklia (currently being modernized with Chinese investment), but also as a component of the Middle Corridor via the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan.
India, for its part, has no intention of abandoning the option of international transit through Iran, Armenia, and Georgia to global markets. Considering Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to New Delhi amid the U.S.-China trade war, the theme of Indo-Chinese rapprochement and their efforts to foster effective relations with Russia will also influence the future of the Zangezur route.
In all scenarios, Turkey will have to reckon with the interests of other stakeholders invested in the Zangezur route — which means that Armenia will retain at least a semblance of sovereignty in this zone where forces and interests of vastly different calibers intersect.
Alexander Svarants – Doctor of Political Science, Professor, Turkologist, expert on the Middle East
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