U.S.-Pakistan relations are cautiously improving under Trump’s renewed presidency, but Islamabad continues to balance between deepening ties with China and maintaining limited strategic cooperation with Washington.
Donald Trump’s re-election was welcomed by Pakistani leaders, including Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. After the beginning of Donald Trump’s second term as president and in the past few months with the official visit of Field Marshal Asim Munir, the commander of the Pakistani army, the Pakistani foreign minister visited the United States.
Geopolitics and Strategy
In the previous term, Pakistan announced that the time had come for Islamabad’s foreign policy to change from the United States to Russia and China. The more Pakistan tries to move towards Russia, Iran, and China, the more asymmetric it becomes with US interests in South Asia.
Although the statements and approaches of Pakistani government officials and leaders indicate Pakistan’s desire to strengthen positive relations with the USA, the role of geopolitical alliances and regional and international variables in US-Pakistan relations is significant.
Given Washington’s attitude towards threats from China, the US wants to ensure that the Pakistan-China alliance does not develop further. Efforts to reduce these relations are in the interest of the US’s strategic interests. But in the new approach of the Islamabad government, despite having strong cooperation with Beijing, it wants the “strongest relations” with the United States, and the United States is seen as Pakistan’s “oldest friend”.
From this perspective, Pakistan does not want Pakistan’s increasing interaction with China to cause a more negative perception from the United States. Therefore, it wants to even show itself as a “bridge” between the United States and China.
Also, by maintaining its foreign policy independence from American pressures, Pakistan is trying neither to be available to the United States to contain China nor to have a desire to participate in American plans to create a new order in the Middle East. For example, while Washington is trying to redefine Pakistan’s role within the framework of the “Iran isolation” strategy, Pakistan condemned the Israeli and American attacks against Iran and supported Iran.
The influence of India’s lobby in the US and the quadrilateral alliance of India, the United States, Australia, and Japan, is a major concern for Islamabad. Therefore, Islamabad is trying to reduce the scope of threats against its interests.
Security and Military
In his first speech to Congress, Trump appreciated Pakistan’s cooperation in the arrest and extradition of a wanted ISIS-K* terrorist.
The recent presence of Marshal Asim Munir, the commander of the Pakistani army, in an unprecedented and face-to-face meeting with Donald Trump at the White House, strengthened cooperation against “terrorism”.
At a recent regional conference in Islamabad (with the participation of military commanders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan as well as the United States), strengthening security cooperation, combating terrorism, and advancing regional security cooperation were also considered.
In this regard, the awarding of a military medal by Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to the head of CENTCOM indicates the beginning of a new round of security and military cooperation between the two countries.
However, China’s growing and prominent role in military and security cooperation with Pakistan has increased US concerns. Pakistan is concerned about Washington’s increasing support for India in the regional balance of power. Also, in the US sanctions against Pakistan’s missile program, Pakistan considers this program to be for its security, while the US considers this program a threat to its security.
Economy and Investment
Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif had previously emphasized mineral resources as the axis of the country’s economic revival. The value of Pakistan’s natural resources is estimated at 6 to 8 trillion dollars, and Pakistan is willing to invest in this sector. Therefore, Pakistan is trying to invite American companies to invest in Pakistan’s natural resources, especially in the extraction of offshore gas fields and oil, and the extraction of gold and copper.
Pakistani economic officials have recently visited Washington and held meetings. After several rounds of negotiations following the Trump administration’s imposition of high tariffs on Islamabad, Pakistan, and the United States signed a trade agreement that will reduce tariffs from 29 to 19 percent for Pakistan and allow US investment in Pakistan’s infrastructure and development projects. Islamabad is also hoping to maintain Pakistan’s trade surplus of about $3 billion with the United States, the largest market for Pakistani textile exports, and even help reduce Pakistan’s external debt through debt relief.
Challenges and Outlook
Much of the media and society in Pakistan harbor anti-American sentiment. The United States’ strong support for Israel has fueled public discontent in Pakistan. Some in Pakistan still accuse the US of supporting the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Pakistan has a significant Shiite minority of 15-20 percent of its population that views Iran. Pakistan’s ability to maintain relations with both Iran and the United States is a significant challenge.
The perceived threat to strategic assets, including nuclear and missile programs, has fueled distrust. Of major concern to Washington is China’s growing multilateral alliance with Pakistan and Islamabad’s more serious approach to the North-South Corridor (INSTC). Pakistan may face increased US pressure. Also, goals such as the entry of American companies, foreign direct investment into the Pakistani economy, and the presence of American companies in vulnerable areas such as Balochistan in Pakistan are not easy to achieve.
In this context, Pakistan’s economic needs, including external debt, force it to maintain a minimum level of cooperation with the United States. Pakistan is trying to benefit from economic and security cooperation opportunities with the United States while maintaining its foreign policy independence. Therefore, a “minimum approach” and limited cooperation with the United States is considered.
Meanwhile, Trump’s approach to foreign policy carries with it uncertainty, and Trump’s foreign policy decisions regarding Pakistan are not yet stable with a long-term commitment. Therefore, a relative improvement in bilateral cooperation in the fields of counterterrorism and the economy is evident. But recent agreements and meetings do not mean a “warming of relations”; a return to the golden age and strategic partnership is possible.
*-banned in Russia
Samyar Rostami, а political observer and senior researcher in international relations
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