Amidst rising polarization in the South Asian region, Bangladesh is navigating the regional geopolitical landscape carefully.
Post-Hasina Realignment and Growing Anti-India Sentiment
During Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, India and Bangladesh maintained notably warm relations, underscored by cross-border connectivity projects, shared regional goals, and deep security cooperation. During this era, the incumbent government took severe actions against people holding anti-India sentiments. It also provided trade routes through the country’s territory. The Hasina government also aligned itself with the strategic priorities and regional ambitions of New Delhi. However, the interim government, established after the fall of the Hasina Wajid government, has altered the country’s outlook towards regional countries.
A New Axis in Emergence?
The newly established interim government has revisited its policy towards Pakistan, a former regional rival of Dhaka. Pak-Bangladesh relations were restored by China’s mediation, further deteriorating relations between New Delhi and Dhaka. Trade relations between the two sides have surpassed the $1 billion mark. Islamabad and Dhaka have shown their interest in further strengthening their trade ties. In a recent diplomatic engagement, Touhid Hossain, Bangladesh’s Advisor on Foreign Affairs, met with Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, on the margins of the UN’s International Conference on the Two-State Solution in New York. Both sides signaled their desire to further enhance their bilateral relations.
China’s influence on Bangladesh is continuously rising. Beijing has also extended its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project to Bangladesh, making the Indian establishment further anxious about expanding Chinese influence in the region. Amidst these developments, speculations about the establishment of a new trilateral bloc, comprising Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan, have arisen. According to the Pakistani media outlet Express Tribune, Pakistan and China are mulling replacing the defunct SAARC organization with a new regional bloc. Reportedly, the recent trilateral summit between Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan in Kunming was also a part of this diplomatic manipulation.
Anil Chauhan, Chief of Defense Staff of India, has recently raised alarm about this trilateral bloc. In a candid remark at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, he stated, “There is a possible convergence of interest we can talk about between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh that may have implications for India’s stability and security dynamics.” He warned of solemn consequences for the country’s security and a disruption in the regional balance of power. Anil also highlighted other disturbing regional patterns and problems for New Delhi, including the exploitation of economic vulnerabilities in the Indian Ocean region to expand their clout.
Dhaka’s Diplomatic Balancing and India’s Strategic Dilemma
During the recent war between India and Pakistan, China and Bangladesh showed their support to the latter. Pakistan and Sri Lanka are already dependent on Chinese aid and investment, leading to increasing concerns amongst the Indian establishment regarding strengthening the anti-India coalition in the region. New Delhi holds that China is strategically encircling India through its increasing soft power. Therefore, it is highly concerned about a rising détente between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
Amidst these rising speculations, Dhaka, being aware of the regional sensitivities and critical implications of such diplomatic moves, has refuted all such claims. The interim government in Touhid Hossain, the interim Bengali adviser of foreign affairs, has publicly dismissed all the speculations regarding any regional bloc or alliance. Dhaka holds that sovereign autonomy and nonalignment remain the fundamental principles of its foreign policy. However, these assurances are unable to shun New Delhi’s diplomatic insecurities. India is rapidly shifting its strategic calculus. The perception of Dhaka’s foreign policy recalibration and its strengthening ties with China is pushing India away from its historic regional ally.
The reason behind this shifting strategic calculus of New Delhi is the historic engagement and alliance between China and Pakistan in 1960, which encompassed East Pakistan, which is now called Bangladesh. Due to different recent regional developments, the Indian establishment is anxious about the resurgence of this triad. For China and Pakistan, the establishment of this proposed bloc serves their regional ambitions. For Dhaka, the membership of this bloc is highly complex and intricate. The interim Bengali government is well aware of the volatile regional situation.
Bangladesh’s cautious approach is also molded by uncertain domestic politics. Polarization inside the country is at its peak. For the interim government, stability is more important than strategy. The country seeks to establish cordial relations with all the regional countries. For years, Dhaka’s foreign policy has centered on engaging globally without becoming entangled in foreign alliances or conflicts. Therefore, the country is unlikely to become part of any regional bloc. However, New Delhi also needs to revisit its policy towards Dhaka to prevent the country from falling into any adversarial bloc.
Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics
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