А shift from the “no-talk policy” and any opening of Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) for engagement with each other and a gradual approach to normalization of relations could lead to an improvement in India-Pakistan diplomatic relations.
India and Pakistan then engaged in a four-day intense conflict in May that ended with a ceasefire. However, important variables play a role in determining whether or not a new conflict will erupt.
Kashmir
Both countries claim sovereignty over most of the Kashmir region. Accusations of abuses are a major obstacle to normalizing diplomatic relations. From the Indian perspective, Pakistan’s withdrawal from Kashmir (PoK) would completely resolve the Kashmir issue. The current challenge will continue until a medium- and long-term solution to the Kashmir issue is found.
Mutual Counter-Terrorism Approach
One of the main sources of tension is mutual accusations of terrorism and subversion, and there is virtually no mutual trust. Both countries accuse each other of fomenting unrest and deploying intelligence forces, supporting separatists.
In the eyes of many in India, Pakistan has tried almost every possible measure against India in Kashmir. While New Delhi believes that Pakistan must stop cross-border terrorism, Pakistan routinely accuses India of interfering in and supporting insurgents and terrorist groups in Balochistan province.
In the absence of confidence-building steps, India’s new security doctrine also emphasizes a kind of retaliation in multi-domain operations against terrorism and low tolerance. In addition to the perception of a threat from each other, the nationalism of the ruling political elites in both countries has harmed the quality of India-Pakistan relations.
Additionally, a significant part of public opinion and the media in both countries still do not have a positive view of their neighbors or believe that they cannot have friendly relations.
Geopolitical alliances
The role of regional and international alliances and variables is also significant in the continuation of the current tension in India-Pakistan relations.
A major concern for India is China’s growing multilateral alliance with Pakistan, as well as investment in Pakistan or the CPEC corridor. Also, the bulk of Pakistan’s weapons come from China. Beijing has provided Pakistan with BeiDou satellite imagery, JF-10C production. China’s growing and prominent role in military and security cooperation with Pakistan has increased India’s concerns.
In addition, although Bangladesh adopted a neutral stance during the recent India-Pakistan conflict, the expansion of economic and strategic relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan in 2025 has also created new concerns for India. In contrast, while Trump’s approach to Pakistan and his possible upcoming visit to the country have raised concerns in India, the influence of India’s lobby in other countries, the quadrilateral alliance of India, the United States, Australia, and Japan, is a major concern for Islamabad.
Water Disputes
The two countries’ water disputes were partly resolved by the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960. But the treaty also has the potential for conflict, and the effects of climate change, melting Himalayan glaciers, and the ongoing dispute over Kashmir (a major part of the watershed) are putting relations at risk.
While New Delhi temporarily suspended the water treaty after the recent April 2025 war, India’s water threats, as an upstream riparian state, have accelerated Pakistan’s efforts to moderate its behavior.
While India withdrew from the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), Pakistan rejected the “unilateral” move, calling any diversion of water an act of war and a red line. Meanwhile, any future actions by India on water could have further damaging effects on relations.
Although in June 2025, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruled that India’s decision to suspend the IWT did not affect its jurisdiction to adjudicate the case, India and Pakistan’s water approaches could also set the stage for a full-scale war.
Economy and Trade
While India’s informal exports to Pakistan are estimated at $10 billion annually, mostly through Dubai, Colombo, and Singapore, Direct trade opportunities between the two countries have become more limited.
While India presents Kashmir as a stable and safe region for its residents and tourists, it is certainly not in the interest of either side to scare away foreign investors, vulnerable infrastructure, and manufacturing areas close to the border.
In the absence of political dialogue, punitive civilian measures by both countries will continue to harm trade. In addition, the weakness of de-escalation mechanisms or crisis communication channels, in the absence of any effective diplomatic engagement and normalization of the cycles of tension and continued military competition, has undesirable consequences.
Future effective and positive variables
India and Pakistan share a common heritage, similar cultures, cuisines, and languages, and a long history of living side by side. The media can have a huge impact on shaping more positive public opinion in both countries.
Informal diplomacy, inter-parliamentary dialogue, soft power channels, sporting events, easing visa regimes, promoting religious tourism, and encouraging people-to-people contacts can play an important role in promoting dialogue and peace. Reducing barriers and normalizing trade and economic interdependence can significantly contribute to making peace more sustainable and facilitating economic recovery.
About two hundred million Muslims live in India, which constitutes the largest minority group. Improving the Indian government’s relations with Muslims can have a positive impact on relations with Pakistan.
Regional and international actors such as China and Russia can play a positive role in India-Pakistan relations by facilitating dialogue, providing diplomatic support, and encouraging confidence-building measures. Cooperation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and SAARC can help de-escalate tensions in India-Pakistan relations.
While about 80 percent of Pakistan’s agriculture and a quarter of its economy depend on the Indus River basin, the impact of climate change in the region and water scarcity, with a huge population increase, are common challenges that require positive relations between the two countries. Any progress in a formal or informal agreement on the Line of Control in Kashmir could help reduce tensions in other areas as well. Also, resolving the Kashmir and terrorism issues would certainly create a more conducive environment for resolving the water challenge.
In the meantime, a shift from the “no-talk policy” and any opening of Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) for engagement with each other and a gradual approach to normalization of relations could lead to an improvement in India-Pakistan diplomatic relations.
*banned in Russia
Samyar Rostami, а political observer and senior researcher in international relations
