Turkey is strengthening its support for Northern Cyprus and promoting the idea of a two-state solution, challenging the established order in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Turkey has maintained its military forces and extensive support in this region, and an estimated 60,000 Turkish military and police forces are present in northern Cyprus as a guarantor of the security of the Turkish Cypriots. Ankara considers this move to be an important geopolitical advantage and will not abandon its current decisions and approach.
Turkey continues to insist on the need to recognize a unit called the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus”. In contrast, the United Nations, the European Union, and especially Greece and Cyprus consider this Turkish approach to be separatism. The economy of Northern Cyprus is heavily dependent on Turkey. Turkey provides extensive economic and financial assistance and, through economic investment and active diplomacy, has strengthened vital infrastructure, increased economic capacity, strengthened the tourism sector, etc. After a previous undersea pipeline project, Ankara recently announced plans to connect the region to the Turkish electricity grid.
In the energy sector, the importance of Northern Cyprus for Turkey has increased, especially in the last decade, with the discovery of rich oil and gas resources in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey is trying to maintain its position in the exploration and exploitation of resources, citing the rights of Turkish Cypriots. Turkey’s energy policies in Northern Cyprus have led Greece and Cyprus to consider forming a coalition to isolate Turkey.
After decades of trying to unify Cyprus based on a federal model, Turkey, concerned about the dominance of the Greek majority, is considering the existence of two separate communities and two separate states, and the guarantee of equal rights, security and sovereignty for the Turkish Cypriots recognizing an independent state in the north of the island.
From another perspective, it is important to recognize the ethnocultural identity of Northern Cyprus. Although the world does not recognize the independence of the north of the island, Turkey pursues cultural autonomy and full autonomy and guarantees the rights of Turkish Cypriots. As Fahrettin Altun said in June 2025, Cyprus is a national ideal rooted in common brotherhood.
In the political and diplomatic sphere, Turkey practically condemns any action that threatens the security and tranquility of Turkish Cypriots, including defense agreements between the United States and Cyprus. Turkey’s determination to protect the interests and status of Northern Cyprus in the face of international pressure is clear.
At the 77th UN General Assembly, Erdoğan called on the international community to recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as an independent state. During a visit to Northern Cyprus in May 2025, he reiterated Turkey’s commitment to strengthening the international status of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
Although no other country except Turkey has recognized the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Turkey has been trying to enhance the status of Northern Cyprus in international forums such as the UN and regional ones.
Turkey considers Northern Cyprus to be part of its national interests and supports the two-state solution in Cyprus. Turkish authorities have repeatedly emphasized that supporting the sovereignty and equal existence of the Turkish Cypriots is a permanent and unchangeable policy.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the Cypriot government in June 2025 and the signing of a 10-point joint statement on the implementation of the “Comprehensive Partnership”, the Greek Cypriot government’s willingness to host Indian naval ships in its ports, the Bilateral Defence Cooperation Programme (BDCP) by 2025, is a countermeasure to the Turkish alliance. Turkey is sensitive to the Greek Cypriot leadership’s deeper cooperation with Israel and India.
Along with Ankara’s encouragement, in recent years, some countries close to Turkey, such as Azerbaijan, have informally expanded their relations with Northern Cyprus, holding official visits and cooperation with them without formal international recognition.
The observer membership of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) in the Turkic States Organization in November 2022 and its mention in the Budapest Declaration (May 2025) are important steps towards the goals.
However, Turkey’s efforts to garner support from other members of the Turkic States Organization have met with setbacks. While three countries (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) have recognized the sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus, contrary to Turkey’s approach, they have adhered to the UN Security Council resolutions (resolutions 541 and 550) at the EU-Central Asia Summit in April 2025 and have strengthened diplomatic relations with the Republic of Cyprus.
In May 2025, Hakan Fidan, criticizing the decision of some neighboring countries to recognize the Greek Cypriot government, emphasized that the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is a member of the Turkic world.
However, the serious disagreement in the Organization of Turkic Speaking States (OTS) over the Cyprus issue has raised further concerns in Ankara to advance the process of international recognition of Northern Cyprus. Even Baku, the strongest supporter of the Turkish Cypriots in the region, is afraid of internationals and public recognition of the Turkish Cypriots.
Outlook
Although many in Northern Cyprus see Ankara as having to convince the OTC members to recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, there are also divisions within the Turkish Cypriot community. A section believes that it should not necessarily identify itself as part of Turkey, or that some choose to live with the Greeks.
Turkey believes that the membership of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) in the Organization of Turkic-Speaking States is “incomplete” and hopes that the TRNC will be accepted as a full member in the future. However, many international actors and organizations consider Northern Cyprus to be part of the Republic of Cyprus and under Turkish military occupation.
Cyprus will hold the rotating presidency of the European Union in the first six months of 2026 and plans to host a summit of regional leaders on Middle East issues. Meanwhile, on June 30, 2025, Nicosia announced that it would invite Turkey next year. While Cyprus and Turkey have no diplomatic relations, hosting the Turkish president from the southern part of Cyprus for the first time could be a turning point in Türkiye’s approach to Cyprus.
Although Turkey’s efforts to use the OTC to recognize Northern Cyprus have failed, it appears that Turkey still supports the permanent division of Cyprus into two states and does not recognize the Republic of Cyprus. In the meantime, achieving a two-state solution also requires international consensus.
Samyar Rostami, а political observer and senior researcher in international relations
