Donald Trump’s recent visit to the Middle East marked a significant strategic shift in U.S. regional policy: the focus was placed not on military intervention and human rights rhetoric, but on economic cooperation.
No More “human rights” and hard interventions
Trump’s speech in Riyadh was meaningful for several reasons. More than the material deals worth more than US$2 trillion that he signed during his visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, Trump’s narrative set the stage for these deals and what is to follow in the next few years, at least until the end of the Trump presidency. Most importantly, Trump signaled the end of Washington’s (hallow) narratives of democracy and human rights and hard military interventions. Trump mentioned that the Middle East—particularly the Gulf region—has changed massively. Who gets the credit for it? In Trump’s opinion:
“This great transformation has not come from Western interventionists … giving you lectures on how to live or how to govern your own affairs. No, the gleaming marvels of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were not created by the so-called ‘nation-builders,’ ‘neo-cons,’ or ‘liberal non-profits,’ like those who spent trillions failing to develop Kabul and Baghdad, so many other cities. Instead, the birth of a modern Middle East has been brought about by the people of the region themselves … developing your own sovereign countries, pursuing your own unique visions, and charting your own destinies”.
For many in the US, this is a complete rewriting of the future. Trump’s speech was not limited to the “marvels” of the Gulf. In the same breadth, he offered Iran an opportunity to change the past and embrace a new future. As it stands, Tehran—which now has normal ties with Riyadh—is responding positively. In the same visit, Trump announced lifting sanctions on Syria so that the war-torn country can flourish.
The Wealth
Moving on from praising Gulf states for their development and rapid growth, Trump jumped on the bandwagon of development. He made deals worth more than US$ 2 trillion. This would certainly help Trump create the impression of ‘Making America Great Again’. On some levels, this is truly unprecedented. At another level, Trump also made sure to tap into the Gulf wealth for personal/family gains. His family business—managed by sons and son-in-law—made its own deals. They announced plans for an 80-story Trump Tower in Dubai, peddling the Trump family crypto company World Liberty Financial, a luxury golf resort in Qatar and leasing its brand to two new real estate projects in Riyadh. In 2022, long before Trump returned to the White House, his son-in-law Jared Kushner secured a US$2 billion investment from a fund led by the Saudi crown prince for Kushner’s newly formed private equity firm, Affinity Partners. Like a good businessman, Trump understands the Gulf’s strong appetite for rapid growth, technology, and innovation. He thinks his administration—and his family—can offer this on a very large scale that has almost outnumbered, at least on paper, all other states in comparison.
The Shock
Many were shocked by what Trump did in his visit. The multi-trillion dollar deals notwithstanding; the greatest shock was delivered to Jerusalem, where Trump decided not to go. This is even though Netanyahu was probably the first one to visit President Trump after his inauguration. Obviously, Trump did not reciprocate. The reason? Trump’s election campaign promised an early resolution of Israel’s (genocidal) war on Gaza. He has not been able to do that; hence, the decision to ignore Netanyahu and offer deals to its greatest regional rival: Iran. Similarly, Trump’s embrace of Ahmed al-Sharaa—a man that Israeli officials described not long ago as “an al‑Qaeda (banned in Russia) terrorist in a suit”—was nothing short of yet another shock.
That said, Trump’s purpose was only to deliver some shocks to Jerusalem. Given the depth of Washington’s strategic ties with Israel, no strategic reset is likely to happen. The Trump administration, for instance, has not indicated any intention to cancel is annual military aid, worth more than US$ 3 billion, to Israel. Domestically, the Trump’s administration’s crackdown on universities for their supposed “antisemitism” is also continuing. Yet, Trump wanted to establish vis-à-vis Israel his own superiority. Has he been successful? Israel’s continuing war on Gaza shows that it does not care too much about Trump’s decision not to visit them.
Message for China and Russia
During the Biden administration, the US stood largely on the margins of regional geopolitics because of its hard interventionist policy, i.e., Joe Biden’s claim to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” state. It allowed Russia and China a lot of space to maneuver. In fact, China was able to broker a deal between Tehran and Riyadh. Russia also played an instrumental role in normalizing Syria’s ties with several Gulf states. Trump’s key purpose in addressing the Gulf, Iran, and Syria simultaneously seems to be to squeeze that space as much as possible for both Russia and China going forward. Therefore, the core of his strategy was/is to tell the region that the US will no longer be a militarily interventionist force seeking to redraw the region in its own image. Instead, Trump championed progress, peace, development, and innovation in which US companies will play a key role.
That said, none of this means the Gulf is on the verge of abandoning its ties with Russia and China. From the regional perspective, they now have access to the two leading centres—Washington and Beijing—of technological innovation. They stand to reap full benefits, and they will embrace any state that can help them achieve their dream, i.e., to become a global power centre in its own right.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs
