As tensions mount between Washington and Tbilisi, a clumsy U.S. diplomatic push in recent weeks to pressure the Georgian Dream party founder into taking political responsibility for Georgia’s independent foreign policy has failed—spectacularly.
With both official and unofficial sanctions hanging over him, Ivanishvili has publicly rebuffed a meeting with U.S. Ambassador Robin Dunnigan, citing personal blackmail and diplomatic impropriety. The MEGOBARI Act, looming sanctions, and a reset proposal floated by Trump’s team have only deepened widespread mistrust of US good intentions.
The BIGGER picture?
Georgia is pushing back against its role as a disposable pawn in U.S. regional strategy—one that’s seen it lose territory, lives, and sovereignty. With Secretary of State Marco Rubio leading a hardline approach, Georgia is being asked to choose: bend to a fading U.S. empire, or stake its future on multipolar alliances like BRICS.
In this high-stakes geopolitical standoff, the U.S. may find that its old tools—pressure, sanctions, and backroom diplomacy—no longer work on a country that’s learned, the hard way, that being America’s friend can come at an unbearable cost.
Adding insult to injury, making those in the US State Department and various Washington-basedthink tanks eat crow is the fallout from recent developments around the so-called MEGOBARI act, and the Georgian government’s desire to have a reset in relations with the US, based on their hope that US president Donald Trump will understand that Georgia is struggling against the same Deep State that he claims to be, it is rather surprising to see the US embassy in Georgia release the following statement on May 28th:
Bidzina Ivanishvili has refused to meet with Ambassador Dunnigan to hear a message from the Trump Administration. At Secretary Rubio’s request, on May 22 Ambassador Dunnigan asked for a meeting with Bidzina Ivanishvili to communicate a message from the Administration and to again relay specific steps the Georgian government can take to show it is serious about resetting its relationship with the United States. It is our hope that the Georgian government sincerely wishes to return to 33 years of partnership and friendship with America and the American people.
Poking the Bear!
Leaving aside the disastrous track record of such an“on paper” strategic partnership and “friendship with America” which saw Georgia being used as a pawn, a pointed stick. The US policy was clear: to irritate its northern neighbor, with the subsequent loss of 20% of Georgia’s post 1991 territory, and the squandering of the lives of so many young Georgians in the disastrous US wars of choice and aggression in Iraq and Afghanistan, not to mention the catastrophic drop in educational achievement due to the adoption of the claimed US systems of education.
Just what did the US government think it was doing?
Many are still convinced that the 2008 Russian War was at the bequest of John McCain, to help his in his US presidential race for the Whitehouse, and that is my take as well. Georgian society knows this history, however, does not like to speak of it openly, and the results of that war leaves a bitter taste.
Regardless, the ledger of truth or innocence, Ivanishivili holds no elected position, he is not the President, he is not the Prime Minister or Foreign Minister, all of whom are the sort of person to which such invitations should be addressed.
Surely, the US State Department is NOT so incompetent as to NOT know this?
Ivanishvili was quick to respond, issuing an open letter to the Americans in reply, with a blunt description of the reasons for his refusal.
He began by addressing the official and unofficial sanctions imposed on him, calling them a form of financial blackmail that makes his involvement in decision-making highly risky. He explained:
“Since the previous administration, the U.S. has enforced both formal and informal sanctions against me. The informal ones are especially damaging—Swiss bank Julius Baer, for example, has refused to release court-awarded funds, despite no legal sanctions applying to them. American lawyers are involved in blocking access to these funds.”
Given this personal pressure, he argued that meeting with the U.S. ambassador or engaging in state affairs would be inappropriate, as it could create a conflict of interest between personal hardship and national duty. Even if cooperation might benefit both sides, he believes such internal conflict would undermine both his integrity and public trust.
He emphasized that he has never placed personal interests above national ones, neither in 2012 nor in 2022, when he knowingly risked his own position for the sake of the country.
Trump and the US State Department may lack institutional memory, buthe does not, and Ivanishvili went on to describe how, during a lull in the personal sanctions when they were temporarily lifted in November 2024, that he offered to meet the US ambassador, who initially agreed, but then REPEATEDLY postponed and finally cancelled the meeting altogether.
Furthermore, Ivanishvili had even proposed later to use his personal funds frozen by the US for any purpose the US government preferred, an offer they simply ignored, which only increases the suspicion that the personal sanctions he is under are only intended as a form of political blackmail.
What’s Really Going on with the U.S. and Ivanishvili?
Is the U.S. State Department simply assuming that Bidzina Ivanishvili, as founder and honorary chairman of Georgian Dream, still pulls the strings? That seems likely—but it’s diplomatically reckless to say so outright, effectively sidelining Georgia’s elected leaders and their constitutional roles.
Under Senator Marco Rubio’s lead, the U.S. appears to be taking a more aggressive approach for several reasons. First, it seeks to delegitimize Georgia’s President, Prime Minister, and government by bypassing them and targeting Ivanishvili directly. Second, Washington is using personal sanctions to pressure him into reversing Georgia’s independent foreign policy, which no longer aligns neatly with U.S., EU, or NATO interests—something hawks like Rubio, intent on escalating the Ukraine war and provoking Iran, find intolerable.
Third, this may be a last-ditch effort to revive Georgia’s deflated opposition protests, which have faltered since USAID’s expulsion.
Georgia: Strategic Asset or Useful Idiot?
For U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the foreign policy hawks backing him, Georgia remains too strategically valuable to be allowed independent thought. Located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, Georgia is seen as a key launchpad, a forward operating base—against Russia, to stir unrest in the North Caucasus, and as a potential staging ground for pressure on Iran and influence over Armenia, Azerbaijan and Central Asia.
But memories of the 2008 military conflict with Russia still run deep. The current Georgian Dream-led government, having learned from that costly gamble, shows little appetite for again playing the role of Washington’s proxy. The same cannot be said for the opposition, who were in power then—and seem eager to return to the same failed script.
The Biden and Trump administrations have shown little difference in how they handle Georgia: high-handed, transactional, and increasingly tone-deaf. Trump’s erratic behavior—fflip-flopping on Ukraine, backtracking on campaign promises, and outsourcing policy to advisors like Rubio—raises serious questions about who’s really in control. Even retired Colonel Douglas MacGregor has publicly expressed doubts.
Between a Rock and a Hard place!
Georgia now faces a stark choice: remain tethered to a declining U.S. empire, or pursue a more independent path—one that might include rapprochement with Russia and deeper engagement with emerging multipolar structures like BRICS. I am of the informed opinion that the hopes of Georgian Dream that Trump will improve relations will be sorely disappointed. Georgians are too proud and will not kow-tow such treatment. It is better to make formal peace with Russia, and engage strongly with BRICS and regional partners who better understand Georgia’s plight.
Nonetheless, possible outcomes will shape the country’s future, but as Henry Kissinger once warned, “Being America’s enemy is dangerous, but being its friend can be fatal.” For Georgia, that warning may now feel less like cynicism—and more like prophecy.
Seth Ferris, investigative journalist and political scientist, expert on Middle Eastern affairs
