The radical changes in the global political arena, and in U.S.-China relations, that have become apparent since the new administration took power in the United States are, inevitably, having an impact on one of the major irritants in those relations, namely the Taiwan issue.
Donald Trump’s “tariff cudgel” hits Taiwan as well
It is hard to describe the sadness and confusion that gripped Taiwan’s current leadership when they saw themselves on the US president’s infamous “Trump chart” of particularly vicious plunderers of America who will now have to return their loot. Taiwan was hit with a 32% punitive tariff, not the heaviest, but still quite weighty. And, after all, they had tried so hard the day before, hoping to avoid this bitter cup.
It was politely pointed out that the overseas benefactor was not quite right in insisting that Taiwan was stealing the chip business from the US. “We have already launched a plant in Arizona to produce the most advanced (5nm) chips. And we have also started building facilities to make 2nm chips, which we are just starting to make in our own country. And $100 billion is being allocated for these and other projects within the United States.”
It didn’t work, and now Taipei can proudly claim to be among the first to perform the “ritual of loyalty” proposed by Donald Trump as a necessary element of subsequent negotiations on the tariff topic. A government delegation has already been formed, which has committed itself to fulfilling one of Donald Trump’s demands to foreign partners, in the form of a sharp increase in the purchase of various American goods, primarily hydrocarbons. It is claimed that the first round of negotiations has already (“smoothly”) taken place.
Meanwhile, we should draw attention to one noteworthy incident that originated back in the summer of 2023 at the very same Arizona plant and has since had further ramifications. The incident in question is a lawsuit filed in US courts by a local employee against Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), which is implementing the project. The American woman accused TSMC management of discriminating against her compatriots both in the hiring process and in the workplace – both at the Arizona plant and at the company’s other locations. For example, American workers are often accused of being “stupid” and “lazy” by Taiwanese supervisors.
It should be noted that such accusations may be quite justified, given the general focus of the US economy in recent decades on developing the service sector, which simply does not require skilled and hard-working engineering workers. But this reality does nothing to diminish the irritation that the author of the MAGA slogan feels at this “blatant act of disrespect” on the part of his Taiwanese interlocutors.
On the Political Aspects of US Strategy on Taiwan Issues
It should be noted once again that the principle of “strategic ambiguity”, which has been at the heart of Washington’s policy on the Taiwan issue for the past half century, which is based on two seemingly irreconcilable approaches. On the one hand, Washington pays lip service to Beijing’s key “One China” principle, while denying its right to solve the Taiwan problem by force. In recent years, the second part of this formula has been reinforced by Washington’s publicly voiced opposition to any “attempts to change the status quo” in the Taiwan Strait. Under the pretext of the “threat” emanating from Beijing in this regard, an almost continuous flow of US weaponry of all kinds is being supplied to Taiwan.
However, in recent years, there has been a growing trend within the US political establishment to completely abandon all ambiguity and move toward “strategic certainty”. Moreover, Taiwan needs to acquire full-fledged statehood and become a “normal” participant in international relations. In particular, Taiwan must “regain” its membership in the UN and all UN specialized agencies. In particular, the information campaign focusing on the “misinterpretation” of UN Resolution 2758, adopted in October 1971 is aimed at achieving these goals.
There is a clear division of labor between the various branches of the US state system. Unencumbered by any formal commitments, members of Congress have generally tended to favor Taiwan’s attainment of the above-mentioned international status. On the other hand, the leadership of the executive branch, especially the State Department and the Department of Defense, while continuing to proclaim respect for the “One China” principle, in reality does everything in its power to promote the strengthening of Taiwan’s statehood and enhance Taiwan’s defense capabilities. In addition, the Pentagon reserves the option of intervening in a hypothetical armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait (but refuses to commit to such a course of action, in line with its policy of “strategic ambiguity”).
Donald Trump’s own current position on various aspects of the Taiwan issue is still unclear. In the texts written by US experts on this subject, one can find references to his previous term in office, when the largest deliveries of US arms totaling $18 billion were made. It is recalled, in particular, that it was at that time (in 2019) that an $8 billion deal was concluded with the US Department of Defense for the delivery of 66 of the latest version of the F-16 fighter jet (Block 70), the first of which was handed over to the Taiwan Air Force on March 30 this year.
But today, both the geopolitical situation in general and the state of relations between the world’s two leading superpowers are completely different from what they were at the end of the last decade. Both are in a state of unprecedented uncertainty. It seems that this is why the US president has so far refrained from making clear statements on one of the key issues in relations with his main geopolitical opponent. But there is no doubt that he will address this issue as part of his broader policy of building relations with the PRC.
On the prospects for US-China relations
It should be noted once again that today, in a highly turbulent world situation, it is a very thankless and inevitably subjective endeavor to make forecasts regarding the potential development of relations between the world’s two leading superpowers. In the present author’s view, the barometer arrow of US-China relations has so far swung toward the thunderstorm mark.
In an article on the first trip abroad of the new U.S. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, NEO has already commented on the military-political component of these relations. Unfortunately, this looks more “stormy” today than it did under the previous administration. Pete Hegseth’s anti-Chinese remarks, which were delivered at a subsequent international event in Panama City, Florida, on the Panama Canal situation, failed to improve the outlook. Also contributing to the stormy outlook was the presence of retired four-star General R. Abrams as an “advisor” at the recently concluded Taiwanese Armed Forces exercises. Significantly, General Abrams previously commanded, among other things, the US contingent in South Korea.
What is more, the situation in the sphere of bilateral trade and economic relations, which simply cannot be maintained at the declared level of “reciprocal” tariffs on imported goods, is becoming quite absurd. This is despite the fact that the economies of the two leading global superpowers are in fact interconnected. And Donald Trump’s administration is clearly well aware of this artificially created absurdity. This is the reason for the reports, soon denied by the President himself, about the abolition of the newly introduced tariffs on some electronic products. All this so far resembles the dancing of savages in loincloths and with spears in their hands around the “sacred fire” of the ongoing tariff war.
In conclusion, we note that with the recent change of administration in Washington, there are no signs that its relations with Beijing will include any negotiations on the Taiwan problem. On the contrary, Washington’s stance on this issue has become more rigid and uncompromising. This conclusion is based on publicly available information, as no “signals from above” have reached the author at this time.
If and as soon as they appear, we will immediately inform the honorable public of their content.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region
