As Algeria gears up geopolitically, economically, and militarily, France and other nations still seem bent on controlling the North African country of 44 million.
France Booted
Given all the recent activity surrounding Algeria, the question of whether or not the country is the key to solidarity in North Africa arises. Few realize that Algeria was once a major power in the Mediterranean, invaded and later conquered by France in the 19th century. The people of the country suffered tremendously because of French colonialism. The French rule ushered in massive European settlement that displaced the local population. At least one-third of the population was eradicated due to warfare, disease, and starvation.
The country’s historical importance is dramatically underestimated. This is evidenced by artifacts of unparalleled uniqueness dating back 2.5 million years ago. Algeria is perhaps best known as the center of the Carthaginian Empire. A diversion into the creation and extent of the Fatimid Caliphate (909AD –1171AD) is far too broad to cover here. What’s important to note is that this caliphate extended across all of North Africa and as far as Syria and the shores of the Red Sea. Likewise, this report is not the right place to discuss Shia Islam, or the political and religious, philosophical and social elements that worked to transform Algeria and North Africa in ancient times. It is, however, vital that we realize how this region has enormous potential and importance. This is highlighted by the geopolicy and business aimed at Algiers.
Russian Lends a Hand
Though the French have historically been hostile to Algerians, a recent reset seemed to be in the works between France’s Emmanuel Macron and Algeria’s Abdelmadjid Tebboune. Unfortunately, as I type this report, Algeria has demanded that 12 French embassy officials leave in 48 hours.
If things were not bad enough in Paris, given the USA’s tariff regime, Russia would now be rendering all kinds of support for President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s country. Maria Zhakarova, the spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, commented on her country’s support for the Algerians seeking reparations from the French neocolonialists. She spoke at a news briefing, saying, “France can no longer suppress the independence and sovereignty of peoples.” The idea of Algeria as the rising star of Africa is less fantasy and more real, given how much interplay is going on between the larger powers.
In addition to the prospect of a reemergence of Algerian power and position, tensions between Algeria and its southern neighbor, Mali, have caused the media to speculate. Also in the mix, the Trump administration and the EU nations are applying pressure over the conflict between Algeria and Morocco over the independence of Western Sahara. The Algerians supported the independence of that country, which Morocco plundered for its resources. Oil and gas exploration off the coast of Western Sahara now plays a key role in the dispute. To make matters even more complicated, Algeria is now seeking Iran’s help (a most interesting development). On the same day, the US reaffirmed recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Western Sahara, and top Iranian officials met with Algeria’s president to discuss cooperation.
If the situation in North Africa was not already chaotic and potentially dangerous, Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf visited Tunisia recently to discuss ways to strengthen collaboration and integration between the neighbouring countries. Is this another sign of something more significant in the works? If we look at recent history, it becomes clear that the transatlantic alliance and Israel have been extraordinarily active in wedging apart the countries of the wider region. Gaddafi’s demise, the whole Arab Spring catastrophe during the Obama administration, the “Axis of Evil” George W. Bush used to crush Iraq, wars in Afghanistan, and continued neocolonialism in all of Africa stand as evidence that the colonialists are still pushing people of this region down. However, subjugated people are known to coalesce. And this often happens with the help of distant friends.
For instance, if Russia were to help mend relations between Algeria and Mali, the basis for a mighty economic power could be established in the region. One reason the French are so keen to set feet firmly back in Algiers is the fate of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), which would stretch for over 4,000 kilometres to link Nigeria with Algeria via Niger. If Europe is going to remain an industrialised continent, this pipeline is irreplaceable. Without alternatives to expensive American Energy, or renewed good relations with Russia, France and the rest of Europe may soon be cow pastures and rusty, run-down tourist attractions.
I mention the Russian pivot for a good reason. Earlier this month, the foreign ministers of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger were in Moscow for their first official talks with Russia. The three Sahelian countries want to work to strengthen ties with Moscow after cutting relations with France and its allies. It’s not rocket science to see what’s going on. The people and businesses in these countries stand to become rich by anyone’s standards if the region’s potential comes to fruition. Whereas France and even the United States are concerned, all of Africa has seen nothing in the last 200 years but piracy and CIA operatives dressed like USAID workers. This is part of why Trump set Elon Musk on the larcenists in Washington. America has a lot to rebuild.
A Sirocco Wind
Recent Western intelligence imagery shows at least one Russia-made Su-35 Flanker-M multirole fighter operating from Ain Beida/Oum el Bouaghi Air Base in northeastern Algeria. Algerians are keen to manage the full suite of Russian-made air superiority fighters, including the Su-30, Su-35, and the forthcoming Su-57. Much is made of Russian arms sales as if the reason so many nations buy from the Russians is only because of ideological ties. I never once heard an “expert” suggest that countries buy Russian arms because they are superior and often cheaper. But again, tangents deflect the theme of this report.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is diligently working on a process to create prosperous partnerships. Though the overall agenda is only for Mr. Lavrov and his boss, Vladimir Putin, to know, it’s essential to understand the certainty that Russia will not miss this opportunity. I also believe that Algeria, North Africa’s second most populous country, will move to solidify its economic and military foundations, while simultaneously working with Russia to establish good relations/cooperation with neighbors. And on the fringes, countries like Morocco will not want to be left out in the cold. Is another Fatimid Caliphate destined to blow in with a Sirocco wind? Well, perhaps not so much a religious one, but a pragmatic and profitable one seems likely.
Phil Butler, is a policy investigator and analyst, a political scientist and expert on Eastern Europe, he’s an author of the recent bestseller “Putin’s Praetorians” and other books
