Media and research platforms across the Middle East are analyzing the situation in Syria after new forces took over on December 6, 2024, follo
The country’s Transitional Constitutional Declaration awarded Ahmed Al-Sharaa the powers of president, prime minister, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, head of the National Security Council, etc. A new government was established in late March. Key positions in the government are held by “former al-Sharaa associates from the Salvation Government that governed Idlib province,” which was a stronghold of the HTS* and other such groups before the December coup.
Syria’s interim president is trying to promote an image of himself as far removed from jihadist stereotypes, Arab authors conclude. This is evidenced by the shuttle missions of his Mideast delegations to Arab countries and international platforms in order to reassure the international community and get sanctions against the country lifted. The new leader often receives representatives of various organizations and foreign delegations, travels abroad himself, etc. In his rhetoric, he insists on his commitment to the unity of the country, calling on citizens and his own militants to exercise restraint and to avoid any religious or ethnic excesses (i.e. conflict).
“The signals from the new leadership are encouraging,” notes A. Gargash, an adviser to the UAE president, who sees the new leader’s pledges not to impose HTS* on all Syrians as “reasonable and rational.” However, other observers are more pessimistic. They are uncertain about al-Sharaa’s willingness to break away from his roots in the jihadist milieu, which served as his military and ideological incubator. It is unprecedented for a movement that once embraced jihadism to later transform itself into a civil movement and reject extremism.
These fears were confirmed by the events of March 6-7 this year, when a wave of mass violence engulfed the coastal region in northwestern Syria. More than 1,000 people were killed, including both military personnel and civilians, mostly members of the Alawite community. Various conflicting explanations have been offered for the tragedy. The interim President has announced the formation of a committee to establish the facts of the bloodshed and has insisted that all those involved in the massacre or mistreatment of civilians will be brought to justice.
The challenges facing the transitional authority in Damascus are serious. On the one hand, broad segments of the Syrian public yearn for the adoption of order and a rule of law that rejects religious dictates and respects individual freedoms. On the other hand, al-Sharaa relies on internal jihadist alliances and warlords who see any openness to democracy as a threat to their Islamist project.
The new government’s assurances and calls for the protection of national minorities and tolerance are insufficient, according to the newspaper Al-Arab, given the numerous reports that testify to a gap between the official declarations and their implementation.
Views have been expressed on the impact of the balance of power in the new Syria on its neighbors in the region. The Iraqi website Idha’atu Sawt Il-Iraq recalls that for decades, the power of the ousted President Basher Assad was opposed by armed groups affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. The Syrian Arab Republic was an important line of defense for Arab rulers against the ambitions of these forces to establish a caliphate. It is a fact that the fall of the former Damascus regime has opened the way for these movements to expand in Arab and Muslim countries.
Shortly after coming to power, al-Sharaa disbanded the Syrian army and now relies on a relatively small army of about 20,000 fighters from several disparate groups, including foreign militants. This is reminiscent of Washington’s decision to disband the Iraqi army after the fall of Saddam Hussein and could lead to the same kind of chaos.
Nevertheless, experts believe that the public mood is increasingly dominated by a sense that the war has exhausted everyone and that Syria will inevitably enter a phase of national reconciliation. This will require rebuilding trust between the State and its citizens, and between the different segments of a society that is weary of conflict and division.
*- organizations banned in Russia
Yuri Zinin — Senior Researcher at the Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, IMI MGIMO
