In the last few days, the US has been deploying B-2 Spirit stealth bombers to Diego Garcia, a strategic US military base in the British Indian Ocean Territory. This ominous development is almost certainly related to Trump’s ultimatum to Iran, issued on March 20th, which basically amounts to “Negotiate or be bombed”.
“Americans must know that threats will get them nowhere in confronting the Islamic Republic,” he said during a nationally broadcast speech in Tehran on Friday. “If anyone commits villainy against the Iranian people, they will be struck with a harsh slap.”
While the Iranian Parliament Speaker, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, was even more blunt:
“If they threaten Islamic Iran, then, like powder kegs, America’s allies in the region and U.S. bases will be made unsafe,”
And therein lies the rub. Iran can easily hit US bases throughout the Middle East, which consist of air force, naval, and army bases in Saudi Arabia, Oman, the UAE, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, and Turkey. Given the woeful lack of effective air defense systems, mainly related to US emphasis on offensive airpower, as well as lack of technical knowhow, these bases are extremely vulnerable to Iranian ballistic and cruise missiles, not to mention a wide array of Iranian drones.
But NOT Diego Garcia
The longest range ballistic missiles available to Iran are assessed to have a range of around 1,242 miles (2,000 kilometers). At its shortest, the distance between the Indian Ocean island and Iran is some 2,358 miles (3,795 kilometers).
The buildup, currently at 3 B-2 stealth bombers, it would have been four, but one had to make an emergency landing at Hickam AFB in Hawaii due to unknown reasons, represents nearly 20% of the US fleet of these advanced bombers, and is a serious threat indeed, mirroring a similar deployment to Australia which was supposed to “send a message” to China.
Of further concern is the history of the base, which was used to stage B-52 bombing missions during the first Gulf War in 1990-91, as well as for B-52 and B-2 strikes on Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003. This does not bode well given the harsh rhetoric of both sides in the current impasse.
Equally sinister is how the US came to have such a base in the first place. The simple answer is British colonial oppression, backed up by US ruthlessness.
Diego Garcia, the southernmost island in the Chagos archipelago, was discovered by the Portuguese in the early 16th century and administered as part of Mauritius. In 1965, the UK separated it and other islands through a forced purchase, creating the British Indian Ocean Territory. Long a backwater, it gained strategic importance when the US wanted a base in the Indian Ocean, and the UK helped with its Overseas Civil Service (formerly the British Colonial Service), forcibly removed the island’s residents between 1968 and 1973.
This “forced depopulation” was carried out by a number of underhanded, or downright evil, methods. Chagossians, who are of mixed Indian, Malay, and African ancestry, the descendants of plantation workers brought to the islands from the 18th century onward.
Such methods that the UK used were rather brutal in removing the islanders, including barring those who left for holidays or medical treatment from returning, restricting food, water, and medical care, and even killing their dogs. By 1973, the remaining residents were forcibly rounded up and deported. In the Seychelles, they were treated like prisoners, forced to travel with a cargo of guano. Many later took their own lives, their community was deliberately scattered across Mauritius, the Seychelles, and the UK.
It was, in effect, a textbook case of ethnic cleansing on the edge of genocide.
Then followed a long legal battle by the islanders to gain the right to return home, a situation repletes with dubious rulings and perversion of justice.
Base with a Dark History
Ironically, the US plans to use this base, despite its dark history, to strike Iran, viewing it as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier”—much like Britain saw its bases during WWII. While the B-2 is a formidable weapon, is it truly invincible? Similar claims were made about the F-117 Nighthawk after the 1991 Gulf War.
It should be remembered that the invisibility of a bombing was rudely shattered by the Serbs in 1999, when they shot down one F-117, and, as was recently revealed, damaged a second beyond repair. There are also long-standing claims, needless to say denied by the US, that Serbian air defences damaged a B-2. The most interesting thing is that Serbia shot down one F-117 and damaged another using the elderly S-125 Neva/Pechora Surface to Air Missile (SAM) system (NATO reporting name SA-3 Goa), a system introduced in 1961.
Compare this with the far more advanced systems used by Iran, both Russian and domestically produced SAM systems such as the S-200 (SA-5) and S-300 (Buk) systems from Russia, and the new Arman Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM), and the Bavar-373 and Sayyyad-2 long-range missiles, which can hit targets at maximum ranges of up to 230km, as well as a host of medium, short range, and man portable systems. Like Russia, the Iranians operate a layered air defense system far superior, and far more formidable, than anything the US has faced since Vietnam half a century ago.
These defenses are complimented by an air force that is equipped with a mix of US and locally produced developments, the most powerful of which is the F-14A, which was used to great effect in the Iran-Iraq war, as well as the Mig-29, F-4D & E Phantom, F-5E Tiger and locally produced upgraded versions, as well as the powerful Su-24 and Su-25 strike aircraft, not to mention Iran’s massive array of conventional ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.
The ballistic missiles in particular showed their efficiency in recent retaliatory demonstration strikes against Israel, easily penetrating the Israeli and American ABM defences to strike Nevatim and Tel Nof air force bases. Of course, the US and Israel downplayed this success, claiming “no aircraft were destroyed” but given the hits on hangars, this seems about as believable as Ukrainian declarations of losses!
The upshot is, that any attack on Iran will not be a “one and done” attack. The US lacks the capability to strike at once every military target in Iran which is capable of retaliating, and the Iranians have the ability to make any attack by airpower painfully expensive, threatening even the US wonder weapons like the F-35 and B-2.
Iran also has more than enough ability to retaliate, with numerous US bases in the region severely exposed to Iranian missile or drone attack, as are US aircraft carriers, not to mention Israeli targets. The Iranians have already warned that their ballistic missile systems are on full alert, and will be used in the event of attack. The Iranians are not bluffing, and are quite capable of striking not only US forces, but any country in the region which hosts US bases, none of which have defenses capable of withstanding Iran’s missile arsenal.
Straits of Hormuz
The Straits of Hormuz pose a major risk in any US-Israeli attack on Iran. Iran can block this vital oil route using mines, fast attack boats, submarines, missiles, and airpower. While Western analysts downplay the threat, the Houthi blockade in the Red Sea proves disruption alone can cripple trade. Iran doesn’t need to sink ships—just threatening them will drive up insurance costs, deterring shipments and sending oil prices soaring. This would economically isolate Gulf allies and severely damage the US and EU economies.
Some believe Trump is bluffing to push Iran into negotiations, but if so, he has miscalculated. A nuclear agreement already existed, and Iran has repeatedly declared such weapons un-Islamic.
It was the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, which guaranteed Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear technology and sanctions relief in exchange for limitations on enrichment and regular inspections. Trump arbitrarily withdrew the US from the JCPOA in 2018, re-imposing sanctions on Iran.
This is most likely why the Iranians have refused direct negotiations with the Americans, and who can blame them? They are also aware that bombing Iran is not so likely from the US, as Trump understand this would finish the US economy, however, Israel is capable of anything out of desperation, so to maintain the current regime when it is being faced down over its genocide of the Palestinian people.
Henry Kamens, columnist, expert on Central Asia and Caucasus
