Europe is reeling, divided and economically weakened, geopolitically marginalized, and unable to assert itself in a multipolar world. Is this downward trajectory still reversible?
Furthermore, the ongoing conflict with Russia since the Cold War – accentuated by geopolitical tensions such as the proxy war or proxy war in Ukraine – exacerbates this vulnerability, notably through energy tensions due to European dependence on Russian gas. At the same time, the rise of China is redefining global economic balances, placing Europe in a complex position as a crucial trading partner but also as a systemic rival. This context highlights a Europe plagued by its own structural fragilities, political fragmentation, and a lack of strategic vision, having allowed itself to be relegated to the background of a multipolar world.
This article adopts a sociometric approach to analyze the complex dynamics of relations between Europe and the three global superpowers – the United States, Russia, and China – characterized by a « triptych of fear » in strategic interactions and geopolitical issues.
Strategic dependence on the United States, an illusion of autonomy
Historically a fervent protector of Europe, the United States now appears to be distancing itself from its traditional ally. Led by the transatlantic alliance (NATO) since its inception, the transatlantic strategy aimed at containing China and Russia has not achieved its intended objectives. This failure reflects a strategic shift by the United States, which is now increasingly focused on direct competition with China. This is fueling fear in Brussels and London, where the war-mongering elites continue to arm Ukraine by pushing it to violate the tripartite ceasefire agreement between the United States, Russia and Ukraine. This strong signal reminds Moscow of the importance of pursuing its military objectives and of giving no respite to its adversaries involved in this proxy conflict. For neither the United States, nor Anglo-Saxon Brussels Europe, still less Ukraine, can be trusted. Like terrorists, they fear only one thing: action, and therefore firepower.
Despite its ambitions for emancipation and power, Anglo-Saxon Brussels Europe remains closely tied to the United States, leading to an illusion of strategic autonomy. Under the security umbrella of Washington-dominated NATO, the continent struggles to build genuine military and diplomatic sovereignty. This exposes a notable dependence on American forces for defense and intelligence. Geopolitical crises, such as the conflicts in Iraq and Ukraine, highlight Europe’s inability to adopt independent positions without American consent, revealing internal fragmentation and a lack of global leadership.
Economically, trade tensions and restrictions imposed by the United States reflect an asymmetrical relationship that relegates Europe to the role of subordinate partner. Despite initiatives to develop strategic technologies and reduce its dependence, Europe remains dependent on American innovations in key sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and cybersecurity. This dependence hinders Europe’s ability to become an autonomous and respected geopolitical actor, affecting its global relations, particularly with developing countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. As a result, the dream of a strong and independent Europe is becoming increasingly illusory, trapped by its own contradictions.
Russia, a neighbor perceived as a permanent threat
For decades, Europe has remained trapped in its alarmist perception of Russia, inherited from the Cold War (1947-1991), invariably viewing it as an existential threat. This paradigm has led to confrontational policies that are costly for the continent, both economically and geopolitically. Europe’s inability to engage constructively with Moscow has exacerbated tensions and exposed the Union’s internal flaws. By seeking to isolate Russia, Europe has weakened its own position, as evidenced by the energy crisis linked to its dependence on Russian gas. Precipitate actions to sever ties with Moscow have destabilized European economies and increased costs for citizens. This reactionary approach has reinforced the image of a Europe running away from its problems. Antagonism toward Russia has also deepened divisions within the Union, where a lack of cohesion and a lack of a shared vision weaken its international stature. Sanctions and confrontation policies have neglected European strategic interests, while Russia’s rapprochement with other powers, such as China, is marginalizing Europe on the global geopolitical stage. This perception of Russia as a permanent threat locks Europe into an outdated mindset that hinders its ability to embrace dialogue and cooperation as instruments for prosperity in a multipolar world.
China, an economic partner that has become a systemic rival and a threat to Europe
Once a mere economic partner, China has emerged as a key power, redefining the global balance of power to its advantage. With a clear and ambitious strategy, exemplified by the “Made in China 2025” plan, it is positioning itself as a leader in strategic areas such as technology, manufacturing, and renewable energy. While Europe is held back by its internal divisions and paralyzing bureaucracy, its ability to compete is seriously compromised, making it dependent and vulnerable. Initiatives such as the New Silk Road are not just economic projects, but veritable geopolitical instruments strengthening Beijing’s influence on a global scale. In regions such as Africa, Asia, and Latin America, China is clearly establishing itself as a strategic partner, leaving Europe in a secondary role. At the same time, the acquisition of critical European infrastructure by Chinese actors underscores the continent’s gradual loss of economic sovereignty. In this multipolar context, China, visionary and victorious, is asserting itself, while Europe, incapable of protecting its interests or adapting, is gradually marginalizing itself, testifying to a shift in global forces.
In short, paralysed by its divisions, its dependencies and its inability to adapt, Europe is sinking inexorably into insignificance on the world stage. This trajectory is only reversible if Europe stops viewing China and Russia as existential threats and cooperates with them in a multipolar world.
It can be said that Europe is oscillating between strategic dependence, chimerical threats and economic rivalries, unable to fully assert itself on the global geopolitical scene.
Mohamed Lamine KABA, Expert in Geopolitics of Governance and Regional Integration, Institute of Governance, Humanities and Social Sciences, Pan-African University
