In 2025, the falling out between the US and Western Europe has become clear. It encompasses a multitude of spheres, but is most evident when it comes to the conflict in Ukraine.
On March 12, the US imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium. The EU has announced that it will impose EUR8 bn worth of punitive tariffs on American imports starting April 1, 2025, and from mid-April by another EUR18 bn.
The trade war between the two allies is escalating. The GDP of the European Union, together with the UK, Norway and Switzerland, is $24.5 trn dollars, comparable to the $29 trn US GDP.
The interdependence of the West’s two main components is most serious. Trump launched an offensive on the continent because Europe had a trade surplus of $200 bn in 2024. At the same time, the US exports EUR100 bn worth of services more to the EU.
The English magazine The Economist noted on 03/13/2025 that Europe has many levers of influence on the United States. Europe, for example, is home to the world’s largest commodity traders (there are about 900 such firms in Switzerland alone), its share in world trade is estimated at 35% for oil, 60% for metals, 50% for grains and 40% for sugar.
The largest container shipping companies are European; Greek companies own more than 30% of all oil tankers and more than a fifth of the global LNG fleet in terms of cargo capacity. With its network of brokers, underwriters and reinsurers, London provides more than 40% of the world’s marine and offshore energy insurance.
The US and Western Europe’s divorce will be tough
More than 50,000 American soldiers are stationed in Germany, and Ramstein, a large airbase, has been a control centre for drone strikes on Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen for many years. The Landstuhl Hospital has treated 95,000 American soldiers wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is estimated that at least 40% of US activities in Germany are focused on supporting operations in other parts of the world. For example, the US special forces group that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011 flew to Pakistan via Ramstein.
The UK is a member of the Five Eyes (FVEY), an alliance within the framework of which the US, Australia, UK, Canada and New Zealand collect and exchange intelligence data, including intercepted messages. The US generates almost 80% of intelligence data.
However, the existence of this alliance may be questioned, as Canada’s possible exit is currently being discussed.
The Europeans have previously disagreed with the Americans on some issues. In 1973, Britain refused to allow the US to launch reconnaissance aircraft from British bases in Cyprus during the Arab-Israeli war. In 1986, France, Spain and Italy banned the US from flying over their territory or using their bases during the bombing of Libya. In 2003, Türkiye did not allow the States to launch an invasion of Iraq from its territory, and thus they could not attack Baghdad from the north.
In February, 2025, US Vice President J. D. Vance spoke at the Munich Conference about the fact that the US and Europe disagree in their values, particularly reproaching the Europeans for not ensuring freedom of speech. For her part, Ursula von Der Leyen, president of the European Commission, accused Trump of threatening European values.
On March 17, 2025, the US informed the EU of their leaving the international group investigating Russia in relation to the events surrounding Ukraine. This multinational group is investigating the leadership of Russia, Belarus, the DPRK and Iran (Washington joined them in 2023).
The press is reporting that Trump stopped funding organisations that were engaged in ‘promoting democracy’ in other countries. As a result, several well-known media outlets, such as Svoboda and Voice of America, were shut down, and numerous ‘independent media outlets’ in the republics of the former Soviet Union found themselves without funding. Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported on 03/16/2025 that the Europeans are trying to replace the United States in a number of these projects, but are unlikely to have enough funds for this.
As a result of Trump’s actions, Europeans are feeling abandoned and offended, and are speaking more and more about the importance of all countries of the continent joining efforts to withstand the US. However, as The Economist wrote, they expect to be able to curb Trump’s wrath.
At the same time, most observers believe that Western Europe’s weighty standing in international affairs is diminishing. The US media is constantly promoting the idea that Europe is turning into an open-air museum, a place for elderly people who are used to living without worries.
Senior adviser to the Turkish President Mehmet Ucum called the EU “the sick man of our time” on the social network X, and the actions of the European Union “evidence of their complete misunderstanding and arrogance, the result of the mentality of a colonialist”.
The rift between the US and Western Europe will probably continue to intensify, and the split in the West has become an obvious fact.
Vladimir Mashin, political observer, Candidate of Historical Sciences
