The cabinet of ministers led by Shigeru Ishiba, which has been in power in Japan for the past five months, has almost immediately encountered a number of serious challenges, both domestic and international.
The Fragile Position of Ishiba’s Cabinet in Parliament
The term “fragile” is also applicable to the overall domestic political situation, which is a result of longstanding, near-fundamental problems in Japan. Chief among these is the prolonged stagnation of economic indicators, leading to a sense of insecurity among the population, especially the younger generation. Families are either not having children at all or limiting themselves to one child. As a result, concerns about the potential extinction of the Japanese people as a nation are increasingly voiced.
It is these fundamental problems, rather than intra-party corruption scandals, which mainly provoke media uproar, that are testing the electorate’s patience. This was reflected in the aforementioned elections last autumn, whose outcome has been described as an “historic failure” for the LDP.
Meanwhile, elections to the upper house of parliament are scheduled for the summer of this year, during which half of the 248 seats will be contested. Under the pretext of concerns over the upcoming election results, calls have already been made for Ishiba’s resignation as party leader.
The initiator of this demand belongs to the faction within the LDP formerly led by the late Shinzo Abe. It was with Abe that Ishiba engaged in a leadership struggle within the ruling party back in the previous decade. An external manifestation of the “fragility” within the LDP itself is the accelerating departure of recent party members.
The “Rice Problem”
Particularly inopportune for the LDP and Ishiba’s government in recent months has been the emergence of the overarching “rice problem,” manifesting as a shortage and price increase of Japan’s staple food. The culprits have been identified as last summer’s unprecedented heatwave and a rapidly proliferating stink bug, which, it turns out, feeds on rice stalks. However, no less damage was allegedly caused by foreign tourists, whose numbers reached a record high last year. These visitors are said to have consumed a significant portion of Japan’s staple food – rice – through their fascination with exotic local cuisine.
Even the emergency release of 150,000 tonnes of rice from state reserves failed to prevent rising prices and shortages in retail networks. As a result, a long-term programme has been urgently devised to significantly increase rice production. Additionally, proposals have been made to abolish various benefits for tourists and raise service charges.
However, both measures will require initial expenditures and time for implementation, while the aforementioned elections are fast approaching. Their outcome will likely also be influenced by numerous other issues, chief among them being the declining birth rate and ageing population. Recently, the deteriorating underground infrastructure of major cities has also become a concern. Furthermore, Japan remains highly vulnerable to severe natural disasters such as earthquakes and typhoons.
Is Japan Moving Towards Militarisation?
Throughout the post-war period, Japan has been one of the most demilitarised nations – at least in relative terms – as its defence spending has been capped at around 1% of GDP. However, during Donald Trump’s first presidency, he issued a stern rebuke to then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whom he sincerely respected (unlike other allied leaders): “Stop riding on our American back, making $70 billion a year from trade with us. Increase your defence spending and buy our military equipment.”
By late 2022, following Abe’s assassination, a decision was made to raise defence spending to 2% of GDP over the 2023–2027 period. Yet, doubts about achieving this target persist due to the ongoing dilemma of “guns versus butter.” In 2024, the second year of this five-year defence plan, Japan’s military expenditure stood at only 1.3% of GDP.
A report on a nearly 10% increase in defence spending for 2025 caused a media uproar. However, this increase is in yen, whereas the highly volatile Japanese currency depreciated by an average of 10% against the dollar in 2024. This means that, in dollar terms, defence spending will remain at 1.3% in the third year of the plan. Moreover, Japan’s Ministry of Defence must pay American defence contractors in dollars, not yen.
The “Trump Problem”
Meanwhile, the same Donald Trump’s administration has returned to power in the United States. The recently retired U.S. ambassador, who represented the previous administration’s interests in Tokyo, persistently “pressed” the Japanese authorities on “gender issues” – a matter of concern given the country’s demographic decline. Now, however, Washington’s demands of Tokyo are entirely different.
Trump is now dissatisfied with the entire framework of the bilateral alliance, based on the 1960 U.S.-Japan Security Treaty. In broad terms, the 47th U.S. president’s grievance with this and related agreements is: “We are obligated to defend them (the Japanese), but they are not obligated to defend us.” At the same time, he makes sure to express his personal admiration for Japan. In response, Prime Minister Ishiba states: “Mr. President, our alliance is already excellent as it is, as it serves the interests of both our countries.” So far, he has not convinced his “big brother.”
It has also not been possible to exclude Japan from the list of targets of the new American administration’s “tariff policy.” Negotiations on this matter, held in Washington on 10 March by Minister of Economy Y. Muto, concluded only with a decision to continue discussions “at the working level.” What was truly shocking for Tokyo, however, was the statement by White House spokesperson K. Levitt that Japan (Sic!) imposes a 700% tariff on imported American rice!
These are difficult times indeed – and for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s government, this reality is no exception.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region
