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On the Visit of the U.S. Aircraft Carrier Carl Vinson to South Korea: Could This Lead to Escalation?

Konstantin Asmolov, March 16, 2025

On March 2, 2025, the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier Carl Vinson, accompanied by support vessels, arrived at South Korea’s main naval base in Busan to participate in the joint military exercises “Freedom Shield” with the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

US Navy aircraft carrier Carl Vinson

This marks the first visit of a U.S. aircraft carrier to South Korea since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January. The reaffirmation of Washington’s previous course has elicited a strong response from North Korea, hinting at a corresponding “raising of the stakes.”
This is yet another attempt at pressure and a rehearsal for an offensive campaign

About the Visit

The aircraft carrier was accompanied by the guided-missile cruiser Princeton and the destroyer Sterett, both equipped with the Aegis system. The visit is part of the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence, recently reaffirmed by Washington. While permanent deployment of nuclear weapons on the peninsula remains off the table, “strategic assets” will be deployed more frequently.

A statement from South Korea’s Navy Command emphasized that “our military will deliver a powerful counterstrike to any North Korean threat, and the South Korea-U.S. alliance will maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the region through close cooperation.” U.S. Forces Korea Commander General Xavier Brunson also underscored the importance of such operations in maintaining regional security: “The operations of the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group demonstrate our commitment to strengthening the defense of our allies and partners, reinforcing our ability to ‘fight tonight and win.” Similarly, Rear Admiral Michael Vossier, commander of the carrier strike group, stated, “The presence of a U.S. aircraft carrier in South Korea this week underscores the strengthening of our bilateral alliance.”

Although this was the first carrier strike group visit under Trump’s presidency, the previous one occurred just eight months ago when the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt visited Busan for the Freedom Edge exercises conducted by South Korea, the United States, and Japan in June 2024.

The arrival of Carl Vinson comes amid Seoul’s concerns that under Trump, trilateral security cooperation between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan may weaken. Although Vossier declined to comment directly on this matter, he emphasized that the presence of a U.S. warship demonstrates that the South Korea-U.S. alliance continues to strengthen and remains actively supported.

North Korea’s Reaction

On March 3, Kim Yo-jong, deputy director of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea and the “First Sister” of North Korea, issued a press statement titled: “The Constant Appearance and Disappearance of U.S. Strategic Assets Only Underscores the Urgency of Strengthening Our Self-Defensive Nuclear War Deterrence.” The statement noted that “the U.S. continues its habitual provocative acts, disregarding the DPRK’s security concerns and escalating tensions.”

In 2025, this marks the second arrival of “strategic assets” following the deployment of the nuclear submarine Alexandria. When considering the fourth meeting of the U.S.-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group on January 10, 2025, along with a series of large-scale exercises simulating preemptive strikes, it appears that the U.S. is “inheriting” the hostile policy of the previous administration toward the DPRK and is gradually expanding its military-political provocations against us. This is yet another attempt at pressure and a rehearsal for an offensive campaign.

The DPRK strongly condemns and warns against these actions, emphasizing that “today’s reality further underscores the legitimacy and necessity of our policy to strengthen nuclear armed forces.”

Beyond the usual rhetoric of “just try us!”, one particular passage stands out: “We will not sit idly by and merely comment on the situation. If the U.S. continues to set new records in demonstrating military strength, we will have no choice but to set new records in the use of strategic deterrence forces. Since the deployment of U.S. strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula has become a harmful custom negatively impacting our right to security, we are seriously considering taking formidable strategic-level actions against the enemy’s right to security.” As noted by Russian military expert Vladimir Khrustalev, “In diplomatic terms, this likely hints at some very interesting upcoming tests.”

A spokesperson from South Korea’s Ministry of Unification called Kim’s statement part of North Korea’s typical threats against the allies’ defensive exercises, “recklessly shifting the blame to the other side.” South Korea’s Ministry of Defense also condemned her remarks as “sophistry to justify their nuclear and missile development while creating a pretext for provocations,” asserting that North Korea’s nuclear buildup “can never be accepted.” The ministry further warned, “If the North uses South Korea and Washington’s legitimate and defensive military activities as a pretext for provocation, it will face a devastating counterstrike.”

Meanwhile, Pentagon spokesperson John Sapple refrained from commenting on Kim Yo-jong’s words but firmly reiterated “our commitment to defending the Republic of Korea, Japan, and the United States, as well as our dedication to maintaining regional peace and stability.”

Author’s Observations

There is nothing particularly provocative about this visit compared to previous aircraft carrier deployments, but North Korea perceives every such visit as a provocation – especially ahead of another round of large-scale exercises in March. The annual “spring escalation” is something the author has covered almost every year.

Therefore, North Korea’s response this time is somewhat unconventional. The more intriguing question is what exactly the “First Sister” meant – especially given that this is North Korea’s first direct address to the Trump administration. The possibilities range from unveiling previously undisclosed strategic assets to leveraging a nuclear test, though such a drastic step seems unlikely given the positions of Russia and China.

However, for Pyongyang and beyond, this visit signifies that despite Trump’s past promises to establish dialogue with Kim Jong-un, U.S. policy on the peninsula remains unchanged. On the other hand, history shows that before extending an olive branch, Trump often plays the “madman,” threatening “fire and fury” to raise the stakes, gauge reactions, and later de-escalate – a familiar strategy of his. Thus, if Pyongyang wishes, it could use this visit as a pretext to escalate tensions, particularly if the upcoming exercises include overtly offensive strategies. However, these actions should be viewed both as military capability enhancement and as strategic posturing for potential negotiations.

The visit should also be considered within the context of Washington-Seoul relations, which are facing challenges. There are concerns in South Korea that Trump, eager to build a peacemaker reputation, might strike a deal with North Korea at the South’s expense. However, the carrier strike group’s presence suggests that such fears are premature.

In this context, alarmism over the aircraft carrier’s visit as an extraordinary escalation is unwarranted. We will see how the March exercises unfold and whether any notable developments emerge. Trump’s North Korea policy remains under formulation, with ongoing internal discussions and an assessment of Pyongyang’s stance.

 

Konstantin Asmolov, PhD in History, Leading research fellow at the Center for Korean Studies, Institute of China and Modern Asia, Russian Academy of Sciences

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