The future achievement of a full agreement is an opportunity to develop a balanced and pragmatic foreign policy, diversify international relations, develop the economy and attract investment, develop agriculture and tourism, and utilize the two countries’ huge hydropower potential.
However, since independence, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have disagreed over the correct demarcation of their common border, the definition of ownership of energy resources, water, and agricultural land, and conflicts between border communities. The strategies of the two countries and serious border negotiations have also made the two countries pay attention to the development of relations.
Approximately half of Tajikistan’s 980-kilometer border with Kyrgyzstan was disputed, and the border dispute resulted in the deaths of more than 200 people and more than 230 clashes. A more deadly round of clashes in September 2022 resulted in military and civilian deaths, the evacuation of residents, and the destruction of homes. In the 1920s, the way the borders were drawn became the source of long-standing border problems. Although negotiations on the exact demarcation of the border have been ongoing since December 2002, several challenges and factors have prevented a conclusion and resulted in periodic Kyrgyz-Tajik tensions.
The 2022 clashes were a sensitive point, but after tensions and the breakdown of relations between Dushanbe and Bishkek in 2023, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan signed a protocol, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization also offered to help resolve the dispute. In the meantime, the talks and goals of the two countries have played an important role in reducing tensions and moving closer to resolving border issues. From November 29 to December 5, 2023, the working and topographic delegations of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan met in Sughd, Tajikistan, to discuss the delimitation and marking of borders. After that, the protocol was signed.
Then, after the meeting of the joint heads of the delegations of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan on the delimitation and marking of state borders in November 2024 in Tajikistan, from December 1 to 7, 2024, the topographic and legal working groups of the two countries on the delimitation and marking of state borders of the two countries were held.
Finally, on February 21, 2025, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan signed the final protocol on border demarcation, along with two other agreements on building highways and ensuring access to water resources and energy facilities. The use of more accurate Soviet maps in delimiting the border, the request to Russia for mediation, and Russia’s approach to reaching agreements contributed to the current process. The strategies of the two countries and serious border negotiations have also made the two countries pay attention to the development of relations.
On the one hand, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov had assured that the border issue would be resolved. He also emphasized in 2025 the recent achievements in the field of infrastructure and peaceful relations, especially Kyrgyzstan’s progress in resolving border issues with Tajikistan, and the importance of strengthening mutual respect and peaceful coexistence to strengthen regional relations. In contrast, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, in his New Year’s address, noted plans to focus on digital innovation, a growth rate of at least 8 percent in 2025, progress in resolving long-standing border disputes with Kyrgyzstan, ensuring peace, and creating opportunities for shared prosperity.
The two countries’ focus on economic growth, regional cooperation, preserving culture, and building peace has also led to the resolution of border issues, the expansion of political and diplomatic relations, and multilateral partnerships. Apart from the official visit, the telephone conversation between the Prime Ministers of the two sides on current issues of bilateral cooperation, the sides continued to emphasize the importance of regular dialogue and mutual interest in strengthening good-neighborly relations and partnership in the light of future joint events. Also, key agreements on the future of roads and management of power generation facilities and water resources, and the delimitation of the borders of the countries, can ensure lasting peace between the two countries.
One of the routes BRI is China-Kyrgyz Republic-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Iran and West Asia. The recent agreements between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are a new start for strengthening regional cooperation. In 2024, the region’s GDP exceeded $500 billion. The first trilateral meeting of the presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan in late March 2025 will be an important opportunity for regional cooperation and addressing key issues of security, economy, and infrastructure. This approach, and the improvement of highways and border crossings, will have an increasingly significant impact on activating the potential for trade with neighbors and opening up economic opportunities and completing transport projects and GDP.
De-escalation is an opportunity for better coordination within the Collective Security Treaty Organization, of which both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are members. Addressing multiple common challenges, including landlocked ness, requires coordinated efforts by the region and multilateral external partners, such as the 5+1, including China, South Korea, the GCC, Russia, India, the United States, Central Asia, etc.
Resolving border disputes is an opportunity to better confront and address regional security issues, including counterterrorism, stability in Afghanistan, and countering jihadist groups such as ISIS-K (banned in Russia). Indeed, broader improvements in relations, even in the cultural and social spheres, such as the joint bid by Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to host the 2031 Asian Cup of Nations, have a direct impact.
Outlook
If residents resist, renewed conflict could become more deadly. The issue of establishing border control is still a matter of debate. On February 27, lawmakers in the Kyrgyz parliament reviewed and approved several documents related to the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. According to media reports, the total area of the transferred land is 141.9 hectares, and in return, Kyrgyzstan received a total of 142.7 hectares. In other words, some border villages will be relocated, and stability will be maintained by relocating affected communities, adjusting infrastructure, and ensuring security. The land exchange and the process of ratifying the agreement are scheduled to be completed within a month of February 21. After the agreement is ratified by the national parliaments, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will sign the treaty.
This approach is seen as potentially changing the geopolitical dynamics of Central Asia and has a positive impact on cooperation in the areas of environmental sustainability, water resources management, and renewable energy. The future achievement of a full agreement is an opportunity to develop a balanced and pragmatic foreign policy, diversify international relations, develop the economy and attract investment, develop agriculture and tourism, and utilize the two countries’ huge hydropower potential.
Farzad Bonesh ‒ geopolitical and geoeconomic analyst, researcher and writer
