Despite threats by the new US administration to impose duties on semiconductors that would hit Taipei, for Washington the defense cooperation with the island serves as an important deterrent to the PRC.
Meanwhile, while the Taipei delegation was trying to convince US think-tanks and the new masters in the White House of its willingness to step up efforts to strengthen defense cooperation, the island’s parliament itself put that mission in jeopardy. Just hours after Donald Trump’s inauguration, Taiwan’s opposition-controlled legislature voted to freeze a crucial part of the island’s 2025 defense budget. Millions of dollars in funding for a submarine program, 30 percent of the planned spending on military operations and one-third of funding for a drone fleet were blocked. The Taiwanese Defense Ministry’s advertising budget was also cut by 60%. Taiwanese government officials and ruling lawmakers from the ruling DPP immediately accused the Kuomintang of sympathizing with the PRC and undermining the policies of President Lai Ching-te. According to Taiwanese Prime Minister Cho Jung-tai, what happened demonstrates to the world that Taipei’s resolve to defend itself has been significantly undermined.
This development has not escaped the notice of international experts, some of whom have pointed out that such an unexpected move by one of Washington’s closest partners will clearly disappoint the new US administration and have consequences. As The Financial Times wrote, such a decision raises the risk of Taiwan alienating President Trump just when the island needs strong US support. On January 25, Taiwan’s Institute for National Policy Research issued a press release claiming that after Donald Trump took office, Taipei can no longer rely on Washington’s support, and the relations between the two countries are not as strong as it was. The Taiwanese government was also disconcerted by recent statements by Donald Trump about the possible introduction of duties on imports of semiconductors. The US president noted that Taiwan represents 98% of total manufacturing capacity in this sector and emphasized the desire of the White House to bring chip manufacturers back to the US.
Nevertheless, it is important not to underestimate Taiwan’s importance to the United States, nor to harbor any illusions about a supposed willingness on the part of the White House to cede the island to the embrace of mainland China. Despite the absence of formal diplomatic relations, Washington has for decades been intensifying its cooperation with the Republic on a wide range of issues, with a particular emphasis on building up Taiwan’s defense capabilities. To this end, the US has enacted a series of laws that have transferred tens of billions of dollars in material and financial aid to the island each year.
The current Trump administration’s America First initiative and focus on the domestic agenda do not negate the fact that defense cooperation with Taiwan remains an important bargaining chip in Washington’s hands when it comes to putting pressure on China. In the United States there is strong bipartisan feeling against China, which is seen as an existential threat to America, its economy, its socio-political order, and its role as global leader. This geopolitical vision is enshrined in the US national defense strategy, which designates Beijing as its main enemy. The US political elite also actively exploits the image of the PRC as an external threat in the face of which the nation and its allies around the world must rally.
Objective strategic realities suggest that the US is preparing to escalate its confrontation with China in the Asia-Pacific region. In accordance with orders from President Donald Trump, it is planned that about 20,000 American soldiers will be withdrawn from Europe and subsequently transferred to Asia. As part of the record US military budget for 2025, about $16 billion will be spent on funding for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a program aimed at blocking Beijing’s influence in the region. Washington is actively putting pressure on its NATO allies to address regional security issues in the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on the development of the AUKUS (US, UK and Australia) military alliance, the goal of which is to oppose China. AUKUS plans to invite Japan, the Philippines and South Korea to join its ranks this year. In this scenario, Taiwan remains a strong card that President Trump will not give up in his geopolitical game against the PRC.
Fernando Gaillardo, political observer