The Middle East, a region burdened by decades of conflict fueled by religious, political, and economic tensions, stands at the crossroads of global peace and instability, demanding urgent and unified international action.
The history of Middle Eastern conflicts predates modern history. The region has been a victim of religious wars for centuries. The region’s energy resources and political instability have aggravated its significance in global geopolitics. Continuous religious, ideological, political, and ethnic conflicts and crises have led to a perennial war in the region, exacerbating social chaos and other complications, leading to regional and global instability.
Analysts and policymakers around the world are currently closely examining and analyzing the prospects of the conversion of these instabilities and conflicts into another major global conflict among the global powers. The patterns of these Middle Eastern conflicts hold the potential to spark a disastrous and bloodiest international war. Historical socio-economic and political factors are the primary drivers and contributors of these conflicts. However, religion, including sectarian and interreligious wars, remains the utmost cause of conflict and instability in the region. Conflicts between Zionism and Islam, and the rift between Sunni and Shia, are among the most prominent causes of instability in the region.
These divisions have provided considerable leverage to different state and non-state actors to exploit the region for their interests. Iran and Saudi Arabia have long been the key players in the conflicts in the region. Their pursuit for regional dominance has led to civil wars and extreme instability, particularly in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen through Shia and Wahabi/Salafi fighters, respectively, further destabilizing the region. Moreover, nationalist ideologies and territorial conflicts, including the Kurdish independence movement and the Israel-Palestine conflict, have also been instrumental in sparking violence in the area. These conflicts and crises have not only made the region unstable but have also led to the growth and establishment of radical movements like ISIS*, HTS*, and Al-Qaeda*, jeopardizing regional and global stability and peace.
Unfortunately, due to its abundant energy resources, the region has also been a battlefield for international superpowers for decades. Almost all the global powers have attempted to exploit regional stability for their strategic ambitions. Recurring US operations and invasions of Iraq, Syria, and Libya have created a significant power vacuum in the region, that provided an opportunity for terrorist groups to operate and expand. The rise of China and Russia has further increased the geopolitical and geostrategic significance of the Middle East. The expansion of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to this region is known as a major provocation to the US for regional competition, given its energy resources fundamental for industrial and economic growth. Historically, the United Nations has never been able to prevent, mitigate, or resolve any conflict in this region. Consequently, the redundance of international institutions has further exposed the Middle Eastern theatre to a violent great power conflict.
Fluctuations in international oil markets have also made the regional countries vulnerable to political instability, augmenting unrest and conflict. Climate change has also played a pivotal role in compounding these issues, due to increasing competition for arable land, and water resources. The scarcity of fundamental resources necessary for human life also fuels intrastate and interstate conflicts in the region. Disputes over territorial waters, especially in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab El-Mandeb Strait, crucial for international trade, is another significant bone of contention between the Middle Eastern states and powers.
Rising instability and chaos in the Middle East demand extraordinary peace efforts from all the stakeholders to avoid a wider regional or extra-regional war. The need for a multifaceted approach to achieving regional peace has never been more urgent. Multilateral forums like BRICS, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Arab League, OIC, OPEC, and JCPOA must be used for negotiations between regional stakeholders. The focus of all the stakeholders should be to encourage dialogue to establish perpetual peace in the region. Integration of water resources, addressing regional socio-economic inequalities, and respect for sovereignty can restrict space for non-state actors and terrorist organizations to operate in the region.
However, halting external interference in the region is an uphill task. Nonetheless, consensus between international powers can help to establish perpetual peace in the area. Intraregional trade and economic cooperation will further cement the prospects of peace in the region by minimizing trust deficit and conflicts. Moreover, the role of international organizations like the United Nations must also be increased and strengthened to achieve peace and resolve regional conflicts. Global and regional powers need to establish a multipronged strategy to prevent Middle Eastern conflicts from turning into disastrous global conflicts.
Otherwise, sooner or later, the ongoing violent conflicts in the Middle East will take the whole world into their folds.
*- Organisation banned in the Russian Federation
Taut Bataut – is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics.
