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The political struggle in the US is afire with renewed vigour

Vladimir Mashin, January 16, 2025

On January 20, Trump will officially take office as the president of the United States. This, however, does not mean that domestic political issues will vanish; on the contrary, life shows that they will flare up with renewed vigour.

On January 20, Trump will officially take office as the president of the United States

The Democrats, who are slowly getting a grasp of themselves, are ready to put up a good fight against the new US administration.
The president-elect has threatened to do away with independent government agencies that he does not like

Despite the fact that he is backed by a Republican Congress and an obedient Supreme Court, Trump’s proposed reforms are already causing serious opposition within the country. The president-elect has threatened to do away with independent government agencies that he does not like, turn others into his own fiefdoms and bypass Congress if it refuses to approve his nominees for various leadership positions. Trump publicly criticises US allies. He sees no value or benefit for the United States in international law, regulations or institutions such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organisation or the World Health Organisation. He even denigrates such fundamental institutions for the United States as NATO. 

How remarkable leaders emerge

Scientists have long been divided on the question of whether leaders form larger forces and determine the vector or whether events themselves shape leaders. Naturally, leaders are products of their time, whether in terms of their ideas and values or their assumptions about how the world works. However, those with exceptional power – whether political, ideological or financial – can use it to steer society along one path or another.

Trump, for example, has announced plans to deport 11 million illegal immigrants, weaken government services and impose massive new tariffs, all while pushing away US allies.

It is unlikely that he will be able to succeed fully in all his endeavours; it will depend on the balance of power, determination and unity of his supporters. Admittedly, certain groups of leaders can change the course of history, but that does not mean that they do it on their own. They follow the changing trends in society. Great political and social changes often occur when institutions lose credibility because people simply stop believing in their legitimacy. For example, at the beginning of the 16th century, the Catholic Church was a rich and powerful institution that seemed destined to dominate Christianity for centuries. However, in practice, it was losing its monopoly on power due to the printing press and the spread of literacy, as well as its moral authority as a result of obvious corruption within its hierarchy. When Martin Luther wrote his famous theses in 1517, denouncing the Church’s lucrative practice of selling indulgences, he launched a movement that transformed Europe’s political structures over the next few decades.

Today, the relevant question is whether Trump will respect certain limits within the country or abroad or, confident in his strength, will ignore them.

The US is a divided country

Currently, the US is certainly a divided country. 2/3 of Americans believe that it is on the wrong track and almost 70% assess the economy as ‘bad’. Trust in the government has halved from 40% in 2000 to just 20% today. Only 38% of Americans say that patriotism is ‘very important’ to them, compared with 70% in 2000. Polarisation has reached its highest point in recent times and threats of violence against politicians have increased dramatically. Donald Trump faced two assassination attempts on his way back to the White House, having won the election.

Americans today are living through a period of deep division, with political beliefs serving as both a catalyst and a battleground for an increasingly polarised society

Some Americans consider him a fascist and some draw parallels between the United States and Weimar Germany. Others compare the United States to the Soviet Union in its final years, a fragile gerontocracy rotting from within. Still others claim that the country is on the verge of civil war.

Americans today are living through a period of deep division, with political beliefs serving as both a catalyst and a battleground for an increasingly polarised society. These ideological differences permeate every aspect of public life, whether issues of governance, cultural identity or even defining core national values. A recent Gallup poll showed that Americans are deeply divided on fundamental values: 80% of respondents reported that the country is split on key principles. This sense of division has grown steadily over the past two decades: only 18% of Americans believe the nation is united in its core values – a stark contrast to earlier periods in its history. CNN’s website highlighted on January 12 the notable surge in the activities of white Christian nationalists, who use religious language to “cover up hostility towards black and non-white immigrants in an effort to create a new Christian America”.

Much has been written about US dysfunction in politics and governance. The gap between developing urban centres and struggling rural communities is deepening and increasing economic inequality is fuelling political polarisation.

The most striking manifestation of the dysfunction of the US state apparatus under the Democratic administration is the fires that shook the US in Los Angeles, California, in January this year.

The country’s vulnerability is growing; with internal fragmentation and strategic insolvency (the national debt has reached $36 trillion), the country cannot balance its ambitions with its resources and overcome internal differences.

In addition to Trump’s intention to deport millions of illegal immigrants, the heads of the newly created Department of Government Efficiency, Musk and Ramaswamy, are going to cut $2 trillion from the state budget, which now stands at $6.75 trillion. This will entail the dismissal of a large number of employees. Objectively, the army of disgruntled people will be quite sizeable.

The Democrats are accusing Trump of nominating people to new state posts on the basis of personal loyalty or family ties.

It should be added that the country is also suffering from a multitude of other problems, including an increase in homelessness, deaths from drugs, crime, etc.

The discontent of the youth should also be pointed out here, since the ruling elite consists mainly of elderly people. The average age of senators is, for example, 64.5 years.

Much points to the fact that the coming few months will be very turbulent in the United States, especially if Trump’s expansionist foreign policy plans are added to the list.

 

Vladimir Mashin, Candidate of Historical Sciences, political observer

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