In 2024, the Middle East saw a series of tragic events that claimed tens of thousands of lives, provoked massive new waves of migration, caused large-scale damage to infrastructure, as well as the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claims that it was thanks to him that the reformatting of the region began. About 65% of Israeli citizens think so as well. The degree of self-adoration of the nation in certain Israeli pro-government media is off the charts.
For the population of the Gaza Strip, 2024 will be remembered for genocide and ethnic cleansing. Every day there were reports of new civilian casualties. Israel does not pay any attention to the condemnation of its actions from the international community. At least 45,317 Palestinians have been killed and 107,713 injured by the end of the year. More than 10,000 people are missing.
Israel is realising its plans to seize new territory
Israel is preparing to resume its settlement policy in the north of the region. It is besieged by the Israeli army and it being total cleansed – literally – of the remaining Palestinians there. The Israel Defence Forces have created unbearable conditions, forcing people to leave their homes, which the Israeli army is razing to the ground. According to various sources, about 150-200 thousand people have left the north of Gaza.
In the West Bank of the Jordan River, Israel is consistently realising plans to seize more and more territory of the Palestinian Authority. In December, billboards appeared there, which read in Arabic: “There is no future in Palestine”. It is clear for whom it does not exist. In 2024, 736 people died at the hands of Israeli settlers and the army in the West Bank and more than 10,000 people were imprisoned. Residents are trying to protest, but Israeli settlers, the police and the army, on top of the Palestinian security forces, have begun to counter them. Their involvement in the suppression of the resistance has increased public distrust and jeopardised the legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority.
The Israeli invasion of Lebanon last year resulted in destruction, surpassing 2006 Lebanese-Israeli war levels. More than 4,000 people were killed and over 16,500 were injured. The damage amounted to over $8.5 billion.
Israeli aggression has further exacerbated Lebanon’s economic problems. According to the World Bank, the national currency has depreciated by 90% since 2019. At least 44% of the country’s population lives in poverty.
The outgoing administration of J. Biden claims the ceasefire agreement reached to be his great US foreign policy victory. However, it is actually only being implemented by the Lebanese side. The Israeli army, with the connivance of the United States, violates it almost daily.
Syria has become fragmented as a result of the rapid fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. One part of it is controlled by the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham* group (HTS), another by the Syrian National Army* (SNA), a third by the Syrian Democratic Council (SDF) and the Southern Front. There are also smaller groups, among which the most notorious are ISIL*, whose small units operate mainly in desert areas, and the Free Syrian Army, which relies on the US military base in al-Tanf.
By the end of 2024 the main three beneficiaries of the events to befall Syria were the United States, Türkiye and Israel.
The US controls the northeast, which is populated by Kurds. There are fertile agricultural lands there – the bread basket of the whole of Syria – as well as oil and gas.
Israel has completely captured the strategic Golan Heights and parts of the provinces of Suweida and Quneitra. The Golan Heights are an extremely important area, providing control over Damascus (60 km from them to the capital), fertile lands and important water sources for the Jordan and Hasbani rivers. Israel does not hide the fact that new Israeli settlements will appear in the Golan. The first ones were built in a part of the occupied territories in 1967 (30 settlements, with a population of approximately 25,000 people). In order for the takeover process to go faster, Israeli special services are reaching out to the Druze with the message that it would be better for them to be part of Israel than to come under the control of Sunni radicals.
Turkish President Erdoğan has big plans for Syria
Türkiye controls the rest of the territory through HTS* and SNA*. Its goal is to create a continuous buffer zone (up to 30km deep) on the border with Syria. Türkiye has not abandoned plans to capture the city of Ain al-Arab, also known as Kobani, via the SNA*. About 200,000 Kurds live there. SDF Commander Abdi Mazloum is trying to prevent this. He proposed the creation of a demilitarised zone there under the supervision and with the participation of the United States.
There have also been many statements from the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham*, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. He seems to be saying all the right things about the creation of a transitional national government in Syria, about ending the persecution of national and religious minorities, that all armed groups should disband themselves, hand over their weapons, and about the need to create unified police forces and a new army. For now, however, these are only good wishes. How can he force the US or the Kurds to hand over their weapons now if no one knows what awaits Syria? Al-Jolani does not have the power to force other groups to do this.
The new Syrian government is trying to create an image of a ‘rule-of-law state’
The further away from Damascus and Aleppo, the more alarming the situation is. The killings of supporters of the Assad regime and looting continue. Al-Jolani is trying to restore order, issuing orders of a prohibitive and restrictive nature. Islamists are trying to create a ‘rule-of-law’ image about the new government in Syria. Controlled media and social networks indicate that Washington, London and EU countries are considering the possibility of excluding HTS* from the list of terrorist organisations and al-Jolani’s meetings with several foreign visitors are widely publicised.
Against the background of statements by the HTS* leader about a non-sectarian society in Syria, pressure on ethnic and religious minorities (first and foremost Christians and Alawites) continues from radical Islamists.
When Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham* controlled only the Idleb province, Christians were persecuted there. Priests were forbidden to appear in public places in their vestments, and crosses were removed from churches.
After November 27, looting of Christian churches occurred in some places, particularly in Homs. Al-Jolani understands perfectly well that the limited territory of Idleb, with its predominantly Sunni population, is one thing and that the whole of Syria, with its historical Christian monuments, where services in some churches are still conducted in the language of Christ, Aramaic, is quite another – hence the statements that the rights of religious minorities will be respected. But people do not believe it. They remember what the Islamists did during the civil war. Some Christians were able to leave the country. Christians appeared on the territory of modern Syria in the 1st century. The oldest and largest metropolis is that of Homs. Before the outbreak of the civil war, it had 160,000 churchgoers, but now they number no more than 25,000-30,000.
Because of the devastation from the war and especially from Western sanctions, Syria is in need of literally everything. People need to receive help; 90% of Syrians are currently living in poverty. Against this background, statements from Brussels and other Western capitals about the withdrawal of Russian military bases being a key condition for the lifting of EU sanctions against HTS* sound strange. If the West really wants to help people in need, then it should do so without any conditions.
Peculiarly, there are signs of the inability of the HTS* leadership to ensure reliable control of the situation throughout Syria, even from the groups belonging to the organisation. On Christmas Eve, in the town of al-Suqaylabiya (Hama province), where the entire population is Christian, militants from one of the radical groups belonging to HTS* burned a Christmas tree in the square. After that, there were statements that Christians should have their own autonomous security forces capable of protecting places where religious minorities live compactly.
In Tel Rifat and Manbij, captured by the SNA*, militants with ISIL* patches participated in the murders and robberies of the local population. The HTS* leadership was forced to urgently recommend the SNA* to abandon demonstrating ISIL* flags and symbols, as it “shows the split of the revolutionary forces and sends an alarming signal to the world community”. HTS* social networks report that the SNA* militants are disguised as Kurdish units or HTS*.
Al-Jolani is now basking in the glory of victory, giving numerous interviews and saying that Syria must remain united, a place where all nations and faiths should be equal. What will happen in 2025 with Syria, whose location allows it to control the Middle East and through whose territory important transport communications pass, is unknown. Piecing Syria back together as it was before the start of the civil war will not be an easy task. There is a high probability that Syria could repeat the fate of Libya, where the forces that overthrew the former government are diverse, with countries backing each of them and each with its own interests.
Among the nearest significant events of 2025, the meeting of the Lebanese parliament, scheduled for January 9, at which another attempt will be made to elect the country’s president, should be highlighted. If this can be done, there is hope that Lebanon will begin to emerge from the many crises it has been in since 2019.
Conclusion
The new year is unlikely to bring anything good for the population of the West Bank. The annexation of Palestinian lands and the displacement of the Arab population will continue. New Israeli settlements will actively be built, but the Palestinian resistance is unlikely to stop despite repressions.
The resistance in Gaza may decline, but it will not be completely suppressed. The Palestinians will not accept their situation. The north of the strip may well be incorporated into Israel, but the Palestinian resistance will still not cease.
In October 2024, few people paid attention to the statement of Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich that the Jewish state would extend from the Nile to Damascus. Now we see that this idea is beginning to be implemented.
Israel enthusiastically welcomed the election of US President Donald Trump. It believes that the US finally has a dream government that will help crack down on its eternal enemy, Iran. Before that, however, Israel intends to constrain Yemen. According to Israeli Defence Minister Katz, Israel will do to Sanaa and Hodeidah what it did to Gaza.
The future of the Middle East does not look particularly bright. If the world community and, above all, the UN, continue to take the position of an outside observer and do not take actually decisive measures, the Middle East may start to be like the Balkans on the eve of the two world wars.
* – organisations are banned in the Russian Federation
Nikolay PLOTNIKOV, Head of the Centre for Scientific and Analytical Information, Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Political Sciences.
