As the United States and Europe are paralyzed by their divisions and inertia, emerging powers are preparing to take power and shape a new world, where the West is no longer the center of gravity. The end of Western hegemony is underway, and nothing will be able to stop it.
Geopolitical context
In a global context loaded with new geopolitical dynamics, emerging powers are redefining the balance of power. Russia, under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, aims to restore its historical influence and asserts itself as a key geopolitical actor vis-à-vis the West, through strategic actions such as the reaction to the events of Maidan (root cause of the Ukrainian conflict), the readmission of Crimea and the interventions in Syria and Georgia. At the same time, Turkey, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seeks to revive the Ottoman legacy through expansionist policies in Syria, Iraq and Libya, while asserting itself as a key regional power. China, under Xi Jinping, is pursuing quiet but determined expansion, investing strategically in Asia, Africa and Latin America to establish itself as a global economic, political and military leader. The United States, under President-elect Donald Trump, seeks to reassert its hegemony, particularly in the face of Chinese and Russian advances, while displaying ambitions to annex Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal. Meanwhile, Western Europe and the collective West appear fragile, facing a potential erosion of their influence and historical identity on the world stage.
The loss of Western hegemony: an inexorable decline
The resurgence of emerging powers such as Russia, Turkey, and China marks a turning point in the global balance, signaling the end of Western hegemony. After decades of dominance since World War II, the United States and Europe are facing a gradual decline in their influence. This change is attributed to several factors: economic stagnation, declining competitiveness, high production costs, and excessive bureaucracy. At the same time, their military power has weakened due to conflicts such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan, and internal divisions have undermined their diplomatic influence. In contrast, emerging powers are experiencing explosive economic growth, with China leading the way as the world’s largest economy. They are also modernizing their military capabilities and expanding their diplomatic influence. China stands out for its economic diplomacy, Russia for its impact in Europe and beyond, and Turkey is strengthening its position in the Middle East. This inexorable shift calls on the United States and Europe to rethink their strategy to adapt to the new multipolar world order and remain relevant on the international chessboard or disappear.
The fragmentation of NATO and the EU: a crisis of Western cohesion
The rise of emerging powers and the resurgence of imperial rivalries are leading to a worrying fragmentation of NATO and the EU, undermining their strategic cohesion. This situation stems from a number of factors, including divergent priority interests: the United States is focused on the Chinese threat in the Asia-Pacific, while European states are more concerned about the Russian threat in Europe and the Indo-Pacific strategic space. Moreover, economic and military disparities are widening the transatlantic divide, with the United States having far greater economic and military power. Divergent visions for the future of Europe and NATO add a layer of complexity: the United States advocates a robust military alliance, while Europe envisions enhanced strategic autonomy. This fragmentation weakens the ability of member states to act in a unified manner in the face of global challenges, offering emerging powers, notably through the BRICS Alliance, the opportunity to exploit their divisions. The consequences are serious: a loss of credibility for NATO and the EU, a reduction in their ability to respond to global challenges, increased influence of emerging powers, and a threat to security and stability in Europe and the West as a whole.
Loss of economic sovereignty: growing dependence on emerging powers
The emergence of global powers such as China, Russia, India and Turkey is leading to a redefinition of Western economic sovereignty, placing the United States and Europe in an increasing dependence on foreign investment and markets. This dynamic is the result of several factors: the explosive economic growth of emerging economies, which have accumulated large foreign exchange reserves and developed monetary alternatives such as Bitcoin to circumvent the predominance of the dollar. At the same time, the West is experiencing stagnation and declining competitiveness, increasing its production burden due to high costs and excessive bureaucracy. The investment and trade strategies of the new powers, exemplified by China’s “New Silk Road”, give them control over global value chains. This increased dependence undermines the ability of the United States and Europe to pursue autonomous economic policies, reinforcing the influence of emerging economies on Western political decisions. Faced with these challenges, the West is struggling to regain its sovereignty and reduce its economic vulnerability, threatened by a loss of competitiveness, decision-making control, and political sovereignty.
From the above, we can deduce that the West is sinking into the night of its decline, abandoning its role as world leader to emerging powers. The end of Western hegemony is an accomplished fact, and the world is entering a new era of domination in which the West is nothing more than a memory of the past. The United States and Europe are condemned to live in the shadow of their former rivals, who have overtaken them and left them in the dust of history.
We can therefore say that the coming year 2025 will be strategic, when the West will definitively fall into the shadows, thus marking the end of an era of domination and the advent of a new multipolar world where emerging powers will be the only ones to hold the keys to power.
Mohamed Lamine KABA, Expert in geopolitics of governance and regional integration, Institute of Governance, Human and Social Sciences, Pan-African University
