On October 31, the DPRK conducted its first test launch this year of a new ICBM, the Hwaseong-19
The last launch of several short-range ballistic missiles took place on September 18. The most recent previous launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile was on December 18 last year, when North Korea launched a solid-propellant ICBM, the Hwaseong-18.
Technical parameters of the new missile
As KCNA reported, the missile was airborne for 5,156 seconds (an absolute record for North Korean missiles) and traveled a distance of 1,001.2 km with a maximum altitude of 7,687.5 km. Traditionally, ICBMs are launched at a lofted (i.e. almost vertical) trajectory: North Korea is not a big enough country to freely test missiles of all classes over its territory, as Russia can. However, when launched at a standard angle, an ICBM can travel a distance of more than 15,000 kilometers depending on the weight of the warhead—enough to reach the US mainland. The color and shape of the flame indicate that it is a solid fuel rocket.
The photos published by state media show the rocket being launched from an 11-axle transporter erector launcher, which appears to be about 30 meters long, and is thus longer than any of the launchers previously used by the DPRK.
KCNA reported that the Hwaseong-19, along with the Hwaseong-18, is the “final version” of its ICBM, which will be used to defend the DPRK and properly deter acts of aggression.
… and opinions of experts from different countries
Experts from South Korea have rated the ICBM as the largest to date, noting that its nose cone appears to be more rounded, raising speculation that it may be designed to house multiple warheads inside. The total launch weight of the new ICBM is estimated at 65 tons, and its warhead weight is about twice that of the Hwaseong-18 warhead—at least 2 tons, compared to 1.2 tons.
Shin Seung-ki, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), notes that in terms of technology development, the DPRK is moving from small to medium-sized solid-fuel ICBMs. The Hwaseong-19 is an improved version of the Hwaseong-18; the first-stage propulsion system is unchanged, but the second and third stages have additions to increase thrust and flight time, allowing for a larger payload— 4-5 warheads weighing 400-500 kilograms each. Shin predicts that in the future, North Korea will seek to improve its ICBM technology and will likely develop a heavy solid-propellant ICBM capable of carrying 10 warheads, and also use this technology to develop a submarine-launched strategic ballistic missile.
As Russian military expert Vladimir Khrustalyov notes, the DPRK now has two solid-propellant ICBMs: the “light” Hwaseong-18 and the “heavy” Hwaseong-19. And if Hwaseong-18 is the Juche version of the Topol, then Hwaseong-19 is, in the long run, the Juche version of the Yars.
Vann Van Diepen, a US expert on weapons of mass destruction who has served in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR), the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and the US State Department, pointed out that since the Hwaseong-18 is already capable of reaching targets throughout the US, the improved propulsion system of the Hwaseong-19 raises the possibility that the missile could be used to deliver a heavier payload—a MIRV warhead. Meanwhile, the DPRK’s possession of ICBMs with MIRVs poses a problem for the missile defense capabilities of the US and its allies, and increases its potential for retaliatory strikes.
There is one more important point: the US sees no sign of any Russian involvement in the DPRK’s development of its intercontinental ballistic missile program, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has admitted. Similarly, Vann Van Diepen sees no indications that Russia has provided technical assistance and support in connection with the development of the Hwaseong-19 work, and considers that the relevant developments and improvements are quite achievable based on the technology used in the Hwaseong-18. Pyongyang is capable of completing the development of a MIRV warhead on its own within a few years, and this would require several test launches.
The political implications of the launch
At the test launch site, Comrade Kim Jong-un said the following. “As recently witnessed by us, the rivals’ dangerous tightening of their nuclear alliance and various adventuristic military maneuvers go to further highlight the importance of strengthening our nuclear forces. The security situation of our state and ever-aggravating prospective threats and challenges require us to continue to bolster up our modern strategic attack forces and more perfectly round off our nuclear forces’ response posture. I affirm that the DPRK will never change its line of bolstering up its nuclear forces.”
Reactions from the West
At an emergency meeting of the National Security Council held shortly after the launch, South Korean President Yoon Seok Yeol called for “decisive” measures in response to the North’s provocation. His government also decided to impose new unilateral sanctions against North Korea.
South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwai, speaking by telephone, noted that South Korea, the US and Japan will work closely with the international community to achieve the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and block Pyongyang from illegally receiving revenue to develop its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
UN Secretary General António Guterres condemned the launch as a violation of UN Security Council resolutions.
Incidentally, a few days before the launch, the South Korean military conducted an exercise involving airstrikes on a mockup of a mobile missile launcher.
Further disputes
In a separate statement published by KCNA, North Korea’s foreign ministry accused “hostile forces” of creating a critical security situation for North Korea by applying “illegal double standards.”
On November 4 at the UN Security Council meeting dedicated to the launch, Seoul and Washington held Moscow and Beijing responsible for Pyongyang’s implementation of its program to develop weapons of mass destruction.
The US Deputy Ambassador to the UN, Robert Wood, directly accused China and Russia of protecting the DPRK from any penalties or criticism, allowing it to pursue its ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs with impunity.
In response, Russia’s Deputy Ambassador to the UN, Anna Yevstigneeva, accused the US and the West of demonizing North Korea, noting that they are stuck in the Cold War era. She called for a fundamental rethinking of approaches in order to break the dangerous impasse and avoid a deterioration of the situation.
The DPRK’s Ambassador to the UN, Kim Song said Pyongyang will accelerate the strengthening of its nuclear capabilities in response to threats from hostile states possessing nuclear weapons.
On November 5, North Korea launched a series of short-range ballistic missiles that traveled about 400 kilometers. Russia has again spoken out in defense of North Korea. Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Andrey Rudenko told TASS that the DPRK’s missile launches are a legitimate measure to ensure its defense capabilities, and a response to provocative activities on the part of the United States.
On November 6, South Korea conducted a missile interception exercise, in which it demonstrated its air defense capabilities using the Cheongung-II and Patriot air defense systems. And on November 7, a unit of the South Korean army’s Strategic Missile Command launched a surface-to-surface Hyunmoo-II missile, which traveled 200 kilometers and hit a target in the Yellow Sea. But, naturally, these actions attracted very little attention.
All that remains to us is to congratulate our ally on an important step forward in its military potential.
Konstantin Asmolov, Candidate of Historical Sciences, leading researcher of the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
