The election campaign in the US is characterised by harshness and the sharp attacks of candidates against one another. Tensions in the country are rising and the polarisation in deepening.
Importance of demography
The US press ranks white conservatives among the most ardent supporters of Donald Trump. Serious changes in the demographic composition of US society continue to take place: there is a gradual transition from the white majority to a multiracial composition of the population. In 1990, 76% of the US population identified themselves as white, whereas in 2023, the American Census Bureau estimated this figure at just over 58% and according to calculations by the Foreign Affairs magazine, by 2035 the figure will fall to 54%, a decade later it will drop below 50%.
Minorities are beginning to play an increasing role in politics and the economy, and they are represented by three ethnic groups: Latinos (18.7%), African Americans (13%) and Asians (about 6%).
It is noteworthy that these groups have a younger composition; the average age of white people is 43.8 years, Asians stand at 37.7 years, African Americans at 34.5 years and Latinos at 30.5 years.
According to a PEW Research Centre survey, only 26% of Americans say that having children is extremely or very important for a fulfilling life, with 71% instead ranking ‘having a career or job that they like’ in these categories. The fertility rate in the United States has fallen to 1.6 births per woman, which is significantly lower than the rate of replacement of about 2.1, at which the population remains stable from generation to generation.
The United States is going to move from a white majority society to a white minority society by 2045. This transition will happen in all fifty states and it will be especially visible among the younger part of the population and in politics. Already today, a quarter of the House of Representatives and the Senate identify themselves as non-white, making them the most diverse group of representatives in US history.
These changes have led to increased animosity among conservatives, many of whom see increased ethnic diversity as an existential threat to their way of life. These voters have embraced Trump and his nationalist movement, which promises to nip such changes in the bud. In turn, Trump’s exclusionary policies and rhetoric have provoked a furious reaction from liberals, who welcome demographic changes or, at least, fear that the success of conservatives will cost Americans their hard-earned freedoms.
Political violence in the US
The anger on both sides is consistent with historical precedent. Scientists have long understood that social change and demographic shifts are a powerful catalyst for violence.
Millions of Americans supporting political violence have concluded that “their country’s elites are so corrupt and their democracy is so utterly broken that riots, political assassinations and forced attacks are acceptable and even necessary to establish the supposedly genuine democracy that people deserve”.
The magazine states that “the country is entering an era of intense, deadly conflict, wrought with politically motivated riots, attacks on minorities and even murders”.
The current fever in the country is unlikely to subside, and the November elections may well not only become the most significant in modern US history, but also the most dangerous. The main reason, i.e. demographic changes, is not going anywhere, and there is no simple and fair way to reconcile the views of conservatives and liberals.
The United States stands before a difficult path
An article in the New York Times from September 23 about how shaky the US constitutional system has become is noteworthy in this regard. The electoral system, introduced several centuries ago, does not reflect today’s realities. Twice in modern history a presidential candidate has won most votes, but lost by the number of electors. At the same time, Erwin Chemerinsky, a well-known legal scholar, dean of the Faculty of Law at the University of California at Berkeley, is referenced. He stressed that if problems with the Constitution are not eliminated and the country remains on its current path, then it will move towards serious attempts at secession.
These sentiments exist on top of the majority of the population’s dissatisfaction with the activities of the authorities and the bureaucratic apparatus, whose incompetence is nothing to commend. When he came to the White House in 2021, President Joe Biden promised to revitalise US infrastructure. In fact, less money is going towards such things as highways and railways; it is no accident that train accidents occur and bridges often collapse. The plan to expand access to fast broadband internet for rural Americans, according to the Economist magazine, “did not help anyone at all”.
It should be recognised that Americans are critical of both Democrats and Republicans. In this regard, an article in the New York Times from September 24 titled ‘Both presidential candidates are ignoring American wellness’ is very telling. It emphasises that neither of the two main presidential candidates mentions healthcare in their 2024 campaigns.
Considering these circumstances, one can say that difficult challenges await the US in the coming years.
Veniamin Popov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Candidate of Historical Sciences, especially for online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
