If the core purpose of Washington’s sanctions on Iran was to force a regime change in Tehran and cripple its ability to affect geopolitics in the Middle East, none of this has happened. In fact, recent events show Iran behaving as a country that sounds neither deterred by Israel nor under immense pressure, both economic and military, from Washington. In response to Israel’s killing of Ismael Haniyeh in Iran, Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri said that Iran will “make the aggressor Israeli regime pay the price for its aggression in a legitimate and decisive action”. This is opposite to what Western political pundits have recently been saying with regard to Iran, i.e., if Tehran wanted to retaliate, it would already have. But this is not true. There is a lot more to what is happening in the region than meets the eye. Let’s turn to that.
The Big Picture
Let’s consider the bigger picture. Immediately after the Israeli strike that killed the Hamas leader, a new round of Gaza ceasefire talks began in Doha, with senior US officials, including the Secretary of the State, expressing hope of ultimate success. If Iran has not attacked Israel directly, its only explanation is Tehran’s desire to not expand the war. (Let’s not forget that Iran has previously attacked Israel directly.)
Until recently, it is Israel – or the Netanyahu administration, specifically – that has derailed every ceasefire talk. If Netanyahu agrees to a ceasefire formula, this could be a political nightmare for him. Not only would a ceasefire open up the question of internal investigations in Israel to fix the responsibility for failing to anticipate – and stop – the October 7 attacks (which might inevitably fall on Netanyahu’s shoulders), but corruption cases against Netanyahu are still far from over. He might be facing a potential conviction and imprisonment after all. To this end, Netanyahu is even causing embarrassment to the US.
Despite a confirmation that Biden himself gave that all parties – especially, Israel and Hamas – involved in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations should desist from attacking each other so that such an action does not jeopardize the talks, Netanyahu ordered yet another air strike in the central town of Deir al-Balah in Gaza, killing at least two dozen people.
Is Iran Divided?
Speculations aside, many political analysts in the West, including Israel itself, have tried to highlight the fact that Iran has not retaliated against Israel because of internal divisions. The new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is said to have deep disagreements with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Supreme Leader. The disagreement exists because Masoud is a moderate and prefers ties with, rather than opposition to, the West. Indeed, Masoud has made such gestures. In a recent piece, Masoud wrote for Tehran Times, he signaled his willingness to engage with Europe. He said, “… I look forward to engaging in constructive dialogue with European countries to set our relations on the right path, based on principles of mutual respect and equal footing. European countries should realize that Iranians are a proud people whose rights and dignity can no longer be overlooked”. He also urged the US “to learn from past miscalculations and adjust its policy accordingly”.
But is this evidence of division within Iran? In fact, taking the desire to improve ties with the West as an indication of ‘division’ is a gross misreading of the situation inside Iran. If Iran was internally divided, with Masoud and the Supreme Leader pulling in different directions, there is little denying that the parliament, dominated as it is by hardliners loyal to the Supreme Leader, would not have approved the entire list of Masoud’s ministers. Masoud’s list containing the names of his 19 ministers was approved by the parliament as an unusual display of unity. This is despite the presence of several moderators in the list. The approval is a ‘smoking gun’ evidence of political consensus within Iran – something that Israel and Washington should take seriously.
An internally united regime could be a much bigger threat to Israeli and US interests than an internally divided regime, lacking consensus and the capacity to develop a fully coordinated strategy. There is little denying, therefore, that the only reason why Iran has not retaliated against Israel is its desire to give the ceasefire talks a serious chance to avoid any further killings of innocent Palestinians.
But this situation does not have to be taken as a threat necessarily. Were better sense to prevail in Washington and Jerusalem, they could use this situation to engage in meaningful negotiations with Iran – not only as part of the ongoing Gaza ceasefire talks but also for talks pertaining to the geopolitics of the region, including the question of Iranian nuclear programme. This point deserves due emphasis that Masoud, in his news article, categorically said that “Iran’s defense doctrine does not include nuclear weapons”. He wrote this article in July. The fact that he still got full support from the parliament in late August shows that the entire Iranian regime backs him up on this question. Those in Washington and Brussels need to take due note of this to reset ties with Iran.
Who is the Real Miscreant
But, the key question is: how do you control Israel? On August 25, in yet another provocation that could invite a stronger response from Iran, Israel conducted a so-called preemptive strike on Hezbollah in Lebanon. In return, Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets inside Israel. Israel said the strike was meant to stop a Hezbollah attack on Israel. But the question is: could Israel do such adventures with Washington’s direct or indirect support? Washington has been leading the ceasefire talks unsuccessfully. Inside the US, the question of support for Israel over Gaza is one key issue defining the presidential elections. But the reason why the issue has gained so much significance is the US inability – and unwillingness – to put enough pressure on Israel to stop its war. More than that, the Biden administration to date has taken so steps to end arming Israel vis-à-vis the unarmed people of Gaza. Israel under Netanyahu continues to display a ‘mad dog’ behaviour only because Washington allows so. Iran’s restraint, on the other hand, deserves applause. But this restraint is not permanent.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
