In July 2024, Japan sharply intensified its foreign policy in the most important areas, particularly regarding strengthening relations with the countries of the collective West, split into three aspects: US, South Korean and European. Japan has focused on defence cooperation with its allies in both bilateral and multilateral formats (IP4, AUKUS+, NATO, the Seoul-Washington-Tokyo axis, etc.).
This article will focus exclusively on Japan’s relations with Western countries, since its policy towards China and the countries of the ‘Global South’ (primarily in the Indo-Pacific region) requires a separate study.
Large-scale changes are taking place in Japanese-US relations. Firstly, the level of interaction between the US armed forces and the Japanese Self Defence Forces is seriously increasing, as commands with similar powers are being created within their structures. On July 28, Tokyo hosted a meeting of the foreign and defence ministers of Japan and the US in the 2+2 format, at which it was announced that due to the reorganisation of the Japanese Self Defence Forces, the structure of the units of the US armed forces stationed in Japan is also changing. At the end of 2024, a new US ‘joint forces command’ will be created and it will become a structural element of the Indo-Pacific Command. As for the Japanese army, a joint operational command will appear in their structure by 2025, focusing on the management of land, naval and air self-defence forces.
Secondly, the parties are updating the very essence of the Japanese-US military-political alliance, extending the scope of defence agreements to new areas (e.g. cybersecurity). But, in our opinion, the main thing is to expand the possibilities of using US nuclear weapons to protect Japan. Thus, the governments of the two countries confirmed their course towards developing the first bilateral document in the field of expanded deterrence, which will ensure Japan’s security, including with the help of US nuclear weapons.
Thirdly, in the field of military-technical cooperation, Japan and the US are seriously expanding industrial cooperation in the production of AMRAAM medium-range air-to-air missiles and PAC-3 surface-to-air anti-aircraft guided missiles. Moreover, on July 28, the Japanese Ministry of Defence announced that a contract worth 3 billion Japanese yen (USD 19.5 million) had been signed for the sale of Patriot PAC-3 missiles to the US armed forces. This step means that Japan will export weapons for the first time since the adoption of the three principles for the transfer of military equipment in 2014. Despite the usual wording that ‘missiles will be used only by the US armed forces in the Indo-Pacific region’, Japanese media writes that the US itself is running out of these missiles due to their supplies to Ukraine. In any case, in our opinion, Japan and the US are looking much further beyond the Ukrainian crisis; the expansion of industrial cooperation between the two countries is primarily aimed at deterring China, Russia and the DPRK.
ROK-Japanese relations: problems, tendencies, prospects
Japan’s contacts with the Republic of Korea have also undergone a number of significant changes both in the bilateral and multilateral formats. Bilateral relations have seriously improved. According to the re-appointed Ambassador of the Republic of Korea to Japan, Yun Duk-min, bilateral relations are “fully normalized” and ready to enter a new stage, for which “momentum is needed”. A peculiar symbol of this ‘new stage’ was the inclusion of the Japanese Sado gold mines in the UNESCO World Heritage List. South Korea opposed such a decision for more than 10 years, justifying this by the fact that immigrants from the Korean peninsula worked forcibly at the mines, but thanks to intensive negotiations with Japan, the situation was successfully resolved.
The favourable atmosphere of bilateral relations contributes to a sharp deepening of military-political cooperation. Thus, on July 26, in the capital of Laos, Vientiane, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa met with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, and on July 28, Japanese Defence Minister Kihara held a meeting with his counterpart Shin Won-sik in Tokyo. Curiously, this was the first visit of the South Korean Defence Minister to Japan since 2009, indicating that contacts between South Korea and Japan in the military and political spheres have also reached a new stage. During these negotiations, the parties agreed to resume regular mutual visits, hold talks, exercises, exchange information, etc.
Japan strengthening ties with the US and European allies
There is also a noticeable comprehensive strengthening of military-political coordination in the multilateral format (with the participation of the US and other allies). So, on July 11, at the Washington NATO Summit, the leaders of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand (IP4) first held talks among themselves, then invited Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to join them and next met with the US president (and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida then held separate talks with Joe Biden), which in itself speaks volumes. In addition, on July 18, for the first time in 8 years, a meeting of the chiefs of staff of the armed forces of South Korea, the US and the Self Defence Forces took place, and on July 28, trilateral talks of the Ministers of Defence of the US, South Korea and Japan took place in Tokyo (this is the first meeting of this level taking place outside the US). The main goal of the meetings was to strengthen defence cooperation against the background of growing interaction between Russia, DPRK and China and the strengthening of Chinese military activity in the South China Sea.
Regarding Europe, the defence component of relations is also highlighted. Thus, on the 23rd, Japanese Defence Minister Kihara Minoru held meetings in London with the defence ministers of the UK (John Healy) and Italy (Guido Crosetto). Curiously, Healy stated during the negotiations that in 2025 the UK was going to send an aircraft carrier strike group to the Indo-Pacific region and suggested that Japan strengthen defence cooperation in this field. However, the main thing is the fact that Japan, Italy and the UK are jointly developing a new, 6th generation Tempest fighter, a project which, despite high costs, was approved by the cabinet of the new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The parties agreed that the first such fighter should be deployed by 2035. This autumn, they plan to establish an intergovernmental organisation (GIGO), which will directly coordinate the development of this fighter.
Another important event was the joint exercises of the German, Spanish and the Japanese Air Forces, Nippon Skies 2024, at Chitose Air Base in Hokkaido. For the Spanish Air Force, participation in the exercises in such a composition was a historical first, which once again underlines the strengthening of Japan’s interaction with European allies.
Thus, there is a serious strengthening of the Seoul-Washington-Tokyo defensive axis, the Japanese-US military-political alliance and Japan’s cooperation with European allies. Moreover, the parties seek to give these structures an expanded institutional character, linking it with IP4, AUKUS+, NATO and QUAD. Japanese media noticed another incentive to accelerate cooperation, namely that the parties hope that the possible coming to power of Donald Trump – who is pessimistic about maintaining such alliances – will not radically change the current state of affairs. Moreover, Washington is seeking to strengthen defence contacts between Tokyo-Seoul and Tokyo-European allies to further strengthen its presence in the Indo-Pacific region against China, North Korea and Russia.
Nazar KURBANOV, trainee, Centre for Spatial Analysis of International Relations, Institute for International Studies, MGIMO, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
