Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is terribly afraid of the cessation of armed hostilities in the Middle East. If this will happen, he will be forced to face investigate committees and questions regarding his own accountability and mistakes. He will not only have to answer many uncomfortable questions from the families of hostages, but also have to be severely punished for the death of many of them – though many could have been saved.
In this regard, many people remember the fate of the former prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was killed for his commitment to the peace process with the Palestinians. Now fate has somersaulted and Netanyahu is being threatened for organising a genocide of Palestinians and lacking respect for his own people. For Netanyahu, this is practically a question of life or death; even the exploitation of his powerful position will not save him from accountability and punishment.
Some of Netanyahu’s ridiculous plans
The prime minister must officially give the green light to any operation for the liquidation of a powerful enemy and this may lead to consequences in the security and political spheres. However, it is also true that it is the military and security agencies that create the list of targets and hand it over to the prime minister for his final decision. In all likelihood, the latest assassinations in Beirut and Tehran reflect the Israeli establishment and security agencies’ wish to re-establish the ‘power of deterrence’, which were shaken to the core following the events of October 7.
Image has always been important to Israel, especially from the point of view of the military and intelligence. Netanyahu, as well as many of his other ultra-right-wing associates, think that by making the enemy pay a high price for their attacks, they will be able to thwart any future attacks. Time is of the essence in wartime. Two assassinations took place shortly after Netanyahu stood before the US Congress for the fourth time, where he was met with long-lasting applause. During his speech, he mentioned Iran 27 times, but a ceasefire was not even mentioned once. Many analysts think that it was following his visit to the US that Netanyahu came to the conclusion that Washington will almost certainly not tur nits back on Israel, despite verbal critique from President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Military staff believe that Netanyahu waited for Hamas to tire out in Gaza before turning its attention to dealing with the threat emanating from Beirut and Tehran. Many in the Middle East are coming to the conclusion that the Israeli Prime Minister can sense that neither Hezbollah nor Tehran want a full-blown war at the current stage; for this reason, Israel decided to trigger the war first with the help of the US and its colossal military potential. At the same time, Netanyahu admitted that the assassinations leave Iran and Hezbollah no choice except to react with a retaliatory strike. After that, he made an official statement regarding Muhammed Deif, leader of Hamas’ military wing. Perhaps he wanted the next stage of the war to take the shape of a confrontation with Iran instead of the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.
The Israeli Prime Minister wanted the problem of Iran, its role in the region and the Iranian nuclear file to take the attention away from efforts towards achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, as well as a resolution and the establishment of a Palestinian state. He is, without doubt, doing everything possible to reignite the US-Iranian confrontation so that the US will take an active part in hindering an Iranian attack on Israel, especially if Tehran’s allies try to strike US military bases in the region. Many think that Netanyahu is pushing the region to the edge of a full-scale conflict so as to end Israel’s infinite war of attrition, demanding of Iran a ceasefire on all fronts without exception.
Israeli problems vis-à-vis a retaliatory Iranian strike
The Israeli military and security services are well aware that Hezbollah’s rockets and drones can reach any coordinate in Israel. The same can be said about Iran and its modern rockets and numerous UAVs. Despite this, though, Netanyahu, banking on US participation, is firmly moving towards a full-scale war in the region and a high number of casualties not only among Arabs and Iranians, but also among Israelis. Any high-ranking politician aims to spare his population any unnecessary casualties, but Netanyahu – before whom stand the possibility of court and death – is trying to save and sugar coat himself, knowing that this will lead to a vast number of deaths among his own people.
Hezbollah cannot but retaliate after the assassination of senior military commander Fuad Shukr in his citadel in a southern suburb of Beirut. Iran also has no choice but to react to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniye in Tehran. According to Sky News Arabia, the Iranian strike may be carried out on August 12 or, perhaps, earlier. It is unknown who will strike first – Iran or Israel?
The current ultra-right Israeli establishment and, first and foremost, Netanyahu himself, are trying to turn the war from a confrontation with Hamas leader Yahya as-Sinwar and his aims to a confrontation with Iran.
For this reason, Netanyahu loudly and publicly stated: «We are waging war on multiple fronts against Iran and its henchmen. We will strike all of its different types of weapons». 10 months later, Netanyahu decided to view October 7 as if it were a coordinated and open war of attrition, that can only be stopped by risking pulling the entire region into a full-scale war.
Netanyahu’s current behaviour explains his actions the last 10 months. A ceasefire was never an option for him, even if it were accompanied by the release of hostages. Israeli hostages are a written off asset to him and he is ready to sacrifice them in any case. He thinks that carrying out powerful strikes against Hamas in Gaza and the liquidation of around 40,000 Palestinian civilians – most of whom are women and children – were a strategic goal much more important than celebrating the return of hostages, who, actually, said a lot of things reflecting negatively on the prime minister. In his fever dreams, he wants to inflict upon Hezbollah the same non-replenishable casualties that he caused Hamas, despite the massive difference between their capabilities and arenas of confrontation.
This also explains why the Biden administration was unable to convince its favourite enfant terrible to agree to a ceasefire.
The Middle East and its peoples nervously await retaliatory measures against the heinous crimes of the Israeli Prime Minister. There are growing fears that the reaction will be larger in scale this time around in comparison to the one in April. Questions vis-à-vis the scale of the new confrontation are being posed. Which role will pro-Iranian Iraqi groups play? What about the Houthis and the Syrian front? Will Netanyahu respond to the Iranian strike, will the battle spill over into Lebanon? Or will he first carry out a preventative strike on Iran? There are more questions than answers.
For decades the Middle East has been on the brink of war, war being the usual state, instead of peace. However, recent pictures and videos of battle are unprecedented and this summer killings and mutual strikes are becoming hotter and hotter. What are the limits of Israeli influence in the region? What are the limits of Iranian capabilities? Can the US agreed with the change in the «rules of war» between Iran and Israel so as to keep the region from descending into a full-scale war?
In the West, the Middle East is considered a terrible and barbarian region where many governments are dumbfounded, their armies entangled in some conflict or other, while US groups and bases stand ready on high alert, but cannot do anything really impactful. The former global hegemon wants a long life, but his loyal «ally», Netanyahu, is only pushing him further towards the abyss.
Viktor Mikhin, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
