The conclusion of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty caused some turbulence in relations between Moscow and Seoul, and now, despite pragmatists’ attempts to keep the situation under control, there is a significant possibility that South Korea will lose its status as “the friendliest of the unfriendly countries.”
So, the first round of turbulence ended with both countries once again drawing what they see as red lines. For Moscow, the red line is the direct supply of weapons and equipment to Ukraine. For Seoul, the red line is the supply to North Korea of precision weapons or technology that could significantly improve its military potential. As yet, from the present author’s point of view, there have been no such supplies, but to judge by statements from American and South Korean politicians, this already appears to be a fait accompli.
In addition to foreign policy pressures the domestic political situation in South Korea is not easy. The President can do nothing without the support of the National Assembly, which is almost entirely controlled by the opposition, and certain “hotheads” in the Democratic camp are already suggesting having him impeached.
In such a situation, there is some reason to be nervous. In any event the two countries have continued to issue reprimands to each others’ diplomats and Moscow’s tone toward Seoul has begun to get tougher.
The West is trying to divert attention from aggressive US plans to hold on to its fragile hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region
On June 26 Andrey Rudenko, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, held a meeting with the Ambassador of the Republic of Korea in Moscow, Lee Do-Hoon, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. The South Korean diplomat’s attention was drawn “to the unacceptable anti-Russian statements by high-ranking officials of South Korea regarding the development of bilateral cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in the context of the June 18-19 state visit of President Vladimir Putin to Pyongyang and the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty signed during that visit.”
“It should be emphasized that the unsubstantiated accusations that Russia and the DPRK are threatening peace and security on the Korean Peninsula are intended to divert the attention of the international community from the aggressive plans of the United States to retain its elusive hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region by creating a network of US centered military blocs in Northeast Asia aimed at containing Russia and China.” Moscow called for a review of Seoul’s confrontational course, which is provoking an escalation of the situation on the peninsula, and pointed out that “the responsibility for destroying the accumulated baggage of the decades-old constructive partnership will fall on the current leadership of South Korea.”
On the same day, June 26 Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova commented on the conclusion of the Treaty and pointed out that “the holding of a US-South Korean air exercise on the Korean Peninsula during the state visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Pyongyang unambiguously indicates who the real potential aggressor is,” and added that “the United States and the Republic of Korea are not ready to take into account the legitimate security concerns of the DPRK, and are openly proclaiming their goal of eliminating its state and political system through military, economic and ideological means.” She cited a number of examples, including the 2016-2017 “sanctions” resolutions of the UN Security Council, the policy of “extended deterrence,” etc.
Relations between the two countries have changed dramatically
At another briefing on the same day, Maria Zakharova touched upon “the Republic of Korea’s response to Russia’s signing of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the DPRK,” which she attributed to Western pressure on Seoul. “We urge the Republic of Korea to avoid hasty actions that could irreversibly damage Russian-South Korean relations,” Maria Zakharova said, noting that “the use of blackmail and threats against the Russian Federation is unequivocally unacceptable.” She called on Seoul to “cease being an American vassal, objectively evaluate the evolving situation on the peninsula, and prioritize their national security and the welfare of their population over appeasing the aggressive ambitions of the US.”
She also commented on the agreement on the supply of South Korean howitzers to Romania, which she saw as “supplying the Kiev regime with arms and ammunition.”
Meanwhile, South Korea has expanded its list of goods which can only be exported to Russia and Belarus with special government authorization and imposed separate sanctions on four Russian vessels and eight North Korean individuals for engaging in illegal arms and fuel trading and other activities in violation of UN Security Council resolutions.
South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has said that the government will consider the possibility of adjusting its aid to Ukraine depending on the level of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea.
However, National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-sik, from the Democratic Party, has said that amid the rising inter-Korean tensions and military cooperation between North Korea and Russia South Korea should strive for balanced diplomacy.
The US has been steadily increasing its military activities in Northeast Asia
On June 28, 2024, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya spoke at the UN Security Council meeting on the situation on the Korean Peninsula, noting that “under the pretext of the ‘North Korean threat’ the United States is consistently building up its military activity in Northeast Asia, deploying strategic strike capabilities there, and overtly running scenarios for a hypothetical armed conflict involving the use of nuclear weapons.” He called the four-day air exercise conducted by the United States of America and the Republic of Korea involving fighter jets and an American fire support aircraft practicing live firing in the skies above the Yellow Sea during the State visit to the DPRK by the President of the Russian Federation “completely unacceptable.”
Modern Russia, has, so far, tried to pursue a balanced policy, equally oriented to both North and South Korea, without developing relations with one country to the detriment of the other. Russia’s response to South Korea’s joining the sanctions was rather mild and back on June 5, 2024, Vladimir Putin indicated that he appreciated Seoul’s stance on the Ukrainian issue.
On July 8, Georgy Zinoviev, Russian Ambassador to South Korea, delivered a speech at an event marking the 140th anniversary of the signing of the first bilateral treaty between the two countries, in which he noted that Russia “was a constructive force genuinely interested in Korea’s autonomy and independence.”
According to Pyotr Ilyichev, Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department of International Organizations, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has reached a dangerous deadlock due to the continuous escalation of tensions in the region, the main responsibility for which lies with the United States and its allies, who are stubbornly pursuing the path of confrontation and provocation. In addition, he notes “the need for fundamental changes to the UN Security Council’s approach to the sanctions regime against the DPRK.”
The US and its allies bear primary responsibility for the escalating tensions in the region
More importantly, the tone of the Russian Foreign Ministry has not changed since the above speech. On July 12, 2024 Maria Zakharova criticized South Korea’s live-fire exercises in the areas bordering the DPRK, and called on South Korea to “stop the reckless war games and take the path to detente and mutual trust, which are key conditions of peaceful settlement to problems on the Korean Peninsula.”
The latest development in this area concerns Seoul’s attempts to smooth relations with Moscow while drawing red lines. On July 13 South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul made a number of statements on the topic of relations between Moscow and Seoul. He noted that Russia is a strategic partner of South Korea (thus emphasizing the high level of relations between the two countries), which can play an important role in the problems of the Korean Peninsula. However, if cooperation between Russia and the DPRK affects South Korea’s key security interests, the latter will take decisive retaliatory measures.
It would appear that South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol also underestimates the strategic importance of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between the Russian Federation and the DPRK. On July 11, he characterized relations between Moscow and Pyongyang as a “favorable arrangement based on their own immediate needs.”
But there are also plenty of skeptics in South Korea. For example, Hyun Seung-soo, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) believes that Russia will continue its course of active engagement with North Korea even after the end of the conflict in Ukraine. Far from being based on short-term common interests, the treaty between Russia and the DPRK focuses on the long-term relations between the parties. Hyun Seung-soo considers that restoring relations between the Russian Federation and South Korea based on economic benefit will be problematic. South Korea should “forget” about the last 30 years of friendly relations with Russia.
Be that as it may, the general feeling is that South Korea’s actions have begun to undermine Moscow’s confidence, and the cooling of relations between the Russian Federation and South Korea will continue. The question is, how quickly? As for why this should be the case, this author will look at this in the next article.
Konstantin Asmolov, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Leading research fellow at the Center for Korean Studies, part of the China and Modern Asia Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
