Today, many political analysts agree that Europe is in relative decline compared to the rest of the world. It is increasingly marginalised – the major European powers have fallen behind in key economic sectors, with Chinese cars rapidly replacing German ones.
Geopolitically, Europe is disoriented and militarily weak. There is a sense of decline and pessimism in most countries – rising inequality, falling purchasing power and a clear sense that the next generation will be worse off.
Although inflation has eased somewhat recently, the damage is severe – prices remain high and in some places the cost of bread, eggs, vegetable oil and heating is two, three, four times than it was a few years ago.
Reasons for the growing popularity of the right-wing in Europe
Lorenzo Marsili, director of the Berggruen Institute Europe Center, argues that the politics of a tough economy and growing migration are not the main reasons for the rise of the right on the European continent. The deeper reasons for this phenomenon should be sought in geopolitical changes and, more simply, in the rise of China, India and the entire Global South. This has led to growing discontent with existing material inequalities. But the era of colonialism is over. For example, the beggarly French workers, the decadent industrialists, had one thing in common: they were French, not natives of a colony, so they considered themselves superior to the peoples their country ruled. Later, after the formal end of colonialism, an unbridgeable psychological gulf divided the “first” and “third” worlds: Europeans, however poor, had access to opportunities, technology and freedoms that few from other parts of the world could dream of. A sense of privilege provided a powerful tool for social cohesion, while the wealth derived from the “third” world allowed for additional spending on social welfare.
Today’s right-wing nationalism is a reaction to the deteriorating material situation of many sections of the population, who feel provincialised, abandoned and exhausted.
These features of discontent are more pronounced in the major powers – England, France, Germany. All this is taking place against a background of a widening gap between the elites and the population. This was clearly demonstrated by the statements of the German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, who constantly asserts that Germany’s main national interest is to support Ukraine and, when asked if her voters think otherwise, replies that the worse it is for the voters.
“The Telegraph”: Incompetent ruling elites have brought Europe to its knees
The divisions in the European Union are becoming more apparent every day: the current leaders are at a loss how to contain the dissidence, indeed the peacemaking activities, of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán – much of their effort is directed not at constructive goals but at how to punish the “rebellious Hungarian leader”.
At the same time, many EU thinkers are aware that the continent is on the verge of serious, if not radical, changes due to the imminent victory of Donald Trump in the American presidential elections. Europe’s leaders are so dependent on the United States that they realise that a change of course in Washington will inevitably have a huge impact on the policies of European countries.
As early as February this year, the British newspaper “The Telegraph” pointed out that incompetent ruling elites had brought Europe to the point of decline: the problems that had accumulated were so complex that they could no longer be dealt with. The rot, the paper said, has gone too far and the decay is extremely deep: idleness, promiscuity, morbid pacifism and self-loathing are so entrenched that the deadly noose can no longer be stopped. Europe was once the richest and most developed continent, but now it has come to an end: its humiliating fall is already visible to the rest of the world, and only the deceived Europeans themselves do not notice it.
Moreover, its ills – catastrophic economic failure, almost total geopolitical irrelevance, the migration and integration crisis and a glaring democratic deficit – have already metastasised. The problem is too complex and too big for Europe’s third-rate elites to even think about solving – especially those egomaniacs and political demagogues who have so carelessly led it into societal disintegration and “anti-growth” with a Potemkin village army and appalling demographics.
A fatal error by European strategists
European leaders have made a strategic mistake by launching a vigorous campaign against Russia, adopting increasingly tough anti-Russian sanctions packages and continuing to spend billions of euros supporting Ukraine and militarising their economies. The damage from these actions is already evident, but their impressive scale will become clear to all in the coming years.
Recent data shows that in a number of European cities migrants now make up half or more of the population. This is particularly the case in Dutch cities such as Amsterdam and Rotterdam. The same is true in Belgium, especially in Brussels, but also in Marseille. This is why we should pay attention to the conclusions of a number of European researchers who say that the position of Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration group will become stronger and that, if current trends continue, she will inevitably become president of France in 2027.
The major countries of Europe are indeed on the verge of a social explosion, while the population continues to age rapidly. The Euro-elite’s only response – more migration – will be to grind the wheels of potentially dangerous radicals. In France, Germany, England and Belgium, the inability of the authorities to fully integrate recent migrants, coupled with the ruling elite’s response – an unapologetic lie that all is well – is laying the groundwork for serious cataclysms.
Why has the European political project failed?
Exactly one hundred years ago, the German philosopher Oswald Spengler wrote his book “The Decline of the West ”, in which he rejected the traditional view of history as a succession of historical epochs. He argued that each culture is a unique organism, existing in its own right and passing through certain stages of internal development. These stages are the same as in any other organism: birth, growth and flowering, aging, death (according to Spengler – spring, summer, autumn, winter). It is a complete cycle and it is inevitable.
Every culture is unique because it has its own soul. The death of culture means the transition to a new final stage of development – civilisation, i.e. Spengler opposed these terms – culture and civilisation. Culture is based on the presence of the soul, whereas civilisation is soulless. It is characterised by technicalism, materialism, the development of cities, belief in science, external aggression, radicalism. The soul is lost, cold calculation remains.
At the beginning of February 2024, the sensational book by Ulrike Guérot and Hauke Ritz “Endspiel Europa. Why the Political Project of Europe Failed and How to Start Dreaming About it Again”.
It states that “the idea of a united and free Europe faded at the turn of the millennium, and today the EU is no longer able to guarantee even its most basic interests (energy and food security). Austerity and the social crisis, the North-South divide and migration problems are giving rise to populist movements”.
The Western model of civilisation is showing more and more flaws: depleted societies, social unrest, populism and nationalism, increasingly authoritarian features, impoverishment, refeudalisation, restrictions on pluralism of opinion and cultural regression. On 18 July, Saudi “Arab News” noted the discrepancy between the rhetoric and actions of European politicians, describing it as “amateurism pushing the world into the unknown”. The war in Ukraine has exposed the hypocrisy of the West’s goals, and political and economic leaders are caught up in their contradictions.
Europeans are in a stalemate through no fault of their own
Commenting on the selection of Senator James Vance as the US vice-presidential candidate, Bloomberg columnist Lionel Laurent recently noted that the “Trumponomics scenario”, in which domestic demand is prioritised at the expense of allies, could be very dramatic. Indeed, it would be the end of an already ailing Europe.
Veniamin POPOV, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Candidate of Historical Sciences, especially for online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
