Many global media outlets have published reports about an imminent invasion of Lebanon by Israel. Several Western governments have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon. Bild, Germany’s largest daily newspaper, citing diplomatic and military sources in the Middle East, has published an article claiming that Israel may embark on a large-scale military invasion of southern Lebanon towards the end of July.
Adding further fuel to the fire, a number of Israeli publications have speculated that the Israeli leadership is ready to take the decision to launch a military campaign against Lebanon, or, to be more precise, against the armed formations of the Shiite party Hezbollah and its allies: Amal, another Shiite movement, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which also has a presence on the Lebanese-Israeli border, where the two opposing forces are facing off against each other.
The decision to launch an operation against Lebanon is being linked to the end of extensive fighting in the Gaza Strip, after which some of the forces of the best-trained Israel Defense Forces (IDF), primarily armored units and commandos, could be redeployed from the southern to the northern front. A number of sources have suggested that the operation could begin after July 24. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to address the US Congress on that day, and will attempt to gain additional support for his military plans from both Republicans and Democrats.
It does not appear that any outside forces have any interest in an Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Everyone understands that Hezbollah is not Hamas, and Lebanon is not an isolated Gaza Strip. Shiite supporters from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are ready to come to Hezbollah’s aid. There will be no shortage of willing supporters.
Hezbollah has a significant military arsenal that includes long-range missiles, including precision-guided missiles, multiple rocket launchers, artillery and mortars of all calibers. Its special forces are equipped with anti-tank weapons. They are capable of putting up a serious resistance to IDF armored units. Hezbollah also makes skillful use of unmanned aerial vehicles. It has repeatedly demonstrated that its drones are able to fly unhindered over Israeli territory and gather all the intelligence information that Hezbollah commanders need.
Despite Israel’s and the United States’ claims about the exceptional effectiveness of Israel’s air defense system, the harsh reality is that it has potential vulnerabilities. Even American military experts warn that its most important element, the Iron Dome system, could well be disabled by massive missile attacks from Hezbollah.
In addition to the above, it should be noted that Hezbollah fighters have gained good combat experience in Syria, where they have been supporting Bashar al-Assad in the fight against Islamist groups. It is also unlikely that Iran would remain on the sidelines. Most experts believe that if Benjamin Netanyahu decides to invade Lebanon, it could be the beginning of the end of Israel in its present form.
If the conflict escalates, the US will be forced to intervene
US and European diplomats are now engaged in intensive negotiations with Israel and Lebanon in a bid to prevent an escalation of the conflict. However, US representatives have said that in the event of a conflict with Hezbollah, the Americans will lend their full support to Israel. Nevertheless, Washington is not particularly eager for a major war between Israel and Lebanon to erupt in the Middle East. On the eve of the upcoming US presidential elections, such a development could put an end to Joe Biden’s bid for a second term, presidential ambitions -and if his ally Israel were to find itself on the brink of defeat, then US troops would have to intervene in order to rescue it.
The Netanyahu government is well aware that Hezbollah is reluctant to get involved in a major war, as is Tehran, for various reasons. This was recently stated by Kamal Kharazi, foreign affairs adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It is already clear to everyone that theinitiator of any new war with Lebanon would, quite unambiguously, be Israel.
According to some reports, the Israeli military itself is opposed to an invasion of Lebanon by the IDF. After more than nine months of fighting in the Gaza Strip, the army has suffered heavy losses and needs a rest. Never in Israel’s history has its armed forces been fighting continuously for such a long period of time. There is an urgent need to recruit new troops, but this is not without problems. There have been reports of an increase in refusals to serve among Israeli reservists, something which has never happened before.
Israel is facing serious economic challenges
According to the Israeli newspaper Maariv, 46,000 businesses have been forced to close because of the military actions in the Gaza Strip. By the end of the year, the figure may reach 60,000. All sectors of the country’s economy are suffering. All sectors of the country’s economy are suffering. The hardest hit has been the technology and agricultural sectors. Fuel and electricity prices are rising, and the cost is being passed on to consumers. Inbound tourism has practically stopped.
The port of Eilat, through which most of the Israel’s imports of goods and other cargo from the Asia-Pacific region passed, has declared bankruptcy.
Some Israeli economists warn that the country’s economy may face a deep economic crisis. The collapse of Israel’s economy would be just what Hezbollah has worked so hard to achieve.
In view of the current circumstances, some foreign experts are considering possible options for both the IDF and Hezbollah.
Option one. The Israeli army, in its current state, would at best be able to clear the narrow border strip from Hezbollah fighters, but this is unlikely to prevent the shelling of Israel’s territory with long-range weapons, and thus almost 80,000 Israelis will continue to be unable to return to their homes.
Option two. Israel could attempt to create a security strip sufficiently deep to prevent Hezbollah from firing rockets and barrel artillery into its territory, but a weakened IDF would be unlikely to be able to repeat its successes in the Litani operation of March 1978, in which Israeli forces penetrated up to 30 km into Lebanese territory. This fact is recognized both by Israel’s intelligence services and by IDF generals.
So far, the hostilities have been limited to exchanges of threatening statements and mutual shelling, the intensity of which is increasing. Thus, on July 17, Hezbollah responded to the shelling of the southern Lebanese village of Umm al-Tut, which killed three children, by firing some 200 Grad-type rockets at the Israeli settlements of Sa’ar and Gesher Haziv. The day before, Hezbollah had fired 50 rockets into the Kiryat Shmona neighborhood in response to IDF fire on another southern Lebanese village.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has warned Israel that in the event of an attack on Lebanon, the group would not observe any red lines in its response to the aggression.
One of the primary targets of its strikes could be Israel’s energy infrastructure. Shaul Goldstein, CEO of Noga, the state-owned company responsible for managing Israel’s national electricity system, speaking at a conference at the Institute for National Security Studies in Sderot, warned that Israel is not ready for a real war, adding that Hezbollah strikes could easily disable the country’s power grid and that “after 72 hours without electricity, it would be impossible to live here.”
There is only one way: negotiation
As the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasralla has said, if Hamas reaches a cease-fire agreement with Israel in the Gaza Strip, then the Lebanese fighters will also declare an “unconditional cease fire.”
The surest option for the Israelis would be to return to the status quo that existed until October 7, 2023. That status quo, after all, was able to preserve stability on the Lebanon-Israel border for 18 years. As things stand, Israel has no credible alternative option for resolving the conflict. Such a solution would satisfy Hezbollah, but for the Netanyahu Government it would mean abandoning its stated military objectives.
Unfortunately, Israel, trying to solve its problems, most often resorts to violence. But, as the experience of previous decades have shown, its reliance on violence is yielding diminishing returns. The failed military campaign in Gaza is just the latest demonstration of the truth of that fact.
Nikolay Plotnikov, Doctor of Political Sciences, Head of the Center for Scientific and Analytical Information at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Science; Valery Zakharov, Candidate of Philosophical Sciences, Leading Specialist of the Center for Scientific and Analytical Information at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
