The recent elections in different parts of the world are deciding factors in shaping the future of the globe. Various South Asian countries also held general elections during the first half of 2024. Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India – some of the SAARC members, also held general elections during this time while elections in Sri Lanka are also likely to be held before October this year. These general elections in the SAARC countries will not only decide the future trajectories of these countries but will also be the pivotal determinants of the fate of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The leaders elected in these elections will choose whether their countries will remain regionally isolated, following the directions of the foreign powers, or collaborate with the highly geographically connected regional neighbors.
Origins and Evolution of Regional Cooperation in South Asia
Regional cooperation in South Asia commenced soon after the conclusion of World War 2. After the withdrawal of the British occupying forces from the region, the newly formed states in the Subcontinent – India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan (including its Eastern wing, now known as Bangladesh) – along with the then Burma (Myanmar) and Indonesia held a summit in Colombo from 28th April to 2nd May 1954. The rationale of this conference was to promote regional cooperation and address mutual issues. However, this conference did not culminate in a formal regional alliance, but it resulted in the formation of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in the 1960s.
This endeavor preserved the neutrality and independence of many regional countries during the Cold War era and laid the foundations for developing regional diplomatic engagements based on mutual interests and concerns. The creation of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1967 highlighted the significance of regional organizations. However, the South Asian region took 20 years to adopt the idea of regional cooperation. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was ultimately established in 1985.
Challenges and Fluctuations in India-Pakistan Relations
Pakistan and India were stuck in the Cold War politics between the 1950s and 1970s. Both countries were directly or indirectly part of either group of the Cold War. Pakistan opted to align with the United States and joined the South East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) and Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) – both backed by the United States, against the Soviet bloc. India opted to be a member of the Non-Aligned Movement but demonstrated its tilt towards the USSR. India and the USSR formalized this relationship with the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in 1971. The then Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi declared an emergency in the country in the late 1970s, while Bangladesh and Pakistan became victims of military coups. Pakistan also became a member of the Non-Aligned Movement in 1979 while India also returned to its policy of staying neutral in the Cold War politics. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and some other regional states continued interstate dialogue at the regional level.
SAARC’s Role and Future Prospects for Regional Cooperation
SAARC played a crucial role in consolidating the member countries for dialogues and policy initiatives for almost 40 years. The organization has also played a pivotal role in dialogues between the two South Asian arch-rivals, Pakistan and India, helping them in fostering cooperation and dispel misunderstandings. The two countries have always had bitter relations. The dismemberment of the Eastern wing of Pakistan and India’s role in it led to further deterioration of relations between the two sides. However, an informal meeting between the Premiers of the two nations in 1988 set the agenda for the fourth SAARC summit in Islamabad. Both sides recognized the significance and need for people-to-people relations between the two sides, agreeing to issue a special travel document, an exemption from the visa requirement, for prominent citizens from each side. Officially, the SAARC visa program was launched in 1992. Many other initiatives were also taken between the two SAARC members to ensure peace, stability, and cooperation in the region. However, this détente was short-lived.
Nuclear tests by the two South Asian arch-rivals – India and Pakistan, once again increased hostility among them. Nonetheless, a private meeting between the leaders of the two countries on the sidelines of the SAARC in 1998 proved beneficial for restoring their relations and rebuilding confidence. However, the Kargil War in 1999 proved detrimental to regional stability, and relations between India and Pakistan saw a new nadir. Over the years, relations between India and Pakistan have seen many fluctuations despite numerous SAARC initiatives and projects.
After the turn of the century, SAARC made significant progress in regional cooperation and stability. The South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and the SAARC Disaster Management Centre played pivotal roles in increasing intra-regional trade and disaster management, respectively. However, no SAARC summit has been held since 2014. In March 2020, India convened a video conference of the organization to seek regional collaboration and cooperation against the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the conference did not come up with any significant strategy to cater to the pandemic.
Pakistan has long been vying to improve its relations with India. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in a meeting with the SAARC General Secretary Md. Golam Sarwar reaffirmed his commitment to the objectives and principles of the SAARC. The then Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari also traveled to India in 2023 for the Shanghai Cooperation Summit’s Foreign Minister meeting. However, there seems to be a reluctance from the Indian side. Ostensibly, the reason behind this is Pakistan’s proximity to China and India’s close relations with the United States. Moreover, India’s domestic politics also emerges as a significant obstacle in improving relations between the two sides.
Pakistan is currently focusing on improving its relations with regional countries. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are trying to pursue a balanced approach towards their relations with India and China. Lack of regional cooperation impedes stability, growth, and development in South Asia. Western powers are exploiting the rivalries among the regional countries. This is not only impinging regional peace but also has negative security, social, and economic ramifications. The re-election of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in 2024 has provided both the leadership a novel opportunity to promote regional cooperation and revive SAARC. Both countries should learn from ASEAN and the EU. Regional cooperation will result in the development and growth of all the SAARC member countries.
Taut Bataut – is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.