The space race between North and South Korea continues. Since the launch of its first spy satellite, Pyongyang has managed to produce a second one. The first satellite is still in operation, but the launch of the second satellite, using a new type of rocket, was unsuccessful. Nevertheless, the journey has begun, and will continue.
The road to the second launch
Readers may recall that on November 21, 2023, the DPRK launched its first reconnaissance satellite, Mallygyong-1. Three more such satellites are scheduled for launch this year.
On February 27, 2024, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said that North Korea could launch a second military spy satellite as early as March, and that, as for the first one, it “is currently in orbit. But it is not showing any signs of performing tasks or engaging in reconnaissance activities.” He attributed the likely improvement in their capabilities and the satellite’s potential to the input of Russian technology: “It is likely that Russia is providing North Korea with technological assistance.”
The Japanese government also expressed the view that North Korea might launch its second reconnaissance satellite in March 2024, in view of South Korea’s plans to launch its own satellite in April and thus carry out provocations ahead of the April 10 parliamentary elections.
On the same day a number of experts in the field said that the North Korean reconnaissance satellite was “alive” and had begun maneuvers.
On March 11, the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun quoted an unnamed aerospace technology expert, who said they “believed the satellite was under Pyongyang’s control.” This is suggested not only by its maneuver to adjust its orbital altitude but also by its regular and precise appearance over certain strategic sites in the region (at intervals of about once every 5 days).
On April 1, 2024, Park Kyong Su, deputy director of North Korea’s National Aerospace Technology Administration, stated in an interview with KCNA that the launch of the Mallygyong-1 reconnaissance satellite had significantly improved North Korea’s defense capabilities, and that more launches are planned for 2024.
Speaking about the development of the industry as a whole, Park pointed out that North Korean higher education institutions now have space faculties and departments specializing in such fields as space surveillance and satellite communications, and research institutes and laboratories are working on satellite development.
On April 24 General Stephen Whiting, commander of US Space Command, stated that North Korea’s satellite launch violates United Nations Security Council resolutions and that preparations for additional launches are being closely monitored. He made his comments after a two-day trip to South Korea to discuss strengthening space and missile capabilities amid rumors of Pyongyang preparing for a second launch.
On April 27, 2024, a spokesman for North Korea’s National Aerospace Technology Administration issued a press statement with the title “US hegemonic attempt to militarize outer space into war theater is principal threat to global peace and security.” The spokesman called Stephen Whiting’s statement that North Korea’s launch of a satellite was a violation of UN Security Council resolutions an example of its “double standards.” Pyongyang, he said, has a just right to space development and legitimate right to self-defense amid the “attempt of the US to militarize outer space.”
On May 24, South Korean media at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, citing military officials, reported “suspicious signs of preparations for a launch” and on May 26 a senior South Korean defense ministry official said that “a large number of Russian experts have arrived in North Korea to support its efforts to launch a spy satellite.”
On May 27, North Korea notified Japan that it planned to launch a space rocket carrying a satellite by June 3 after which South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff announced that the national air force would hold exercises on May 27 to practice operational deployment, combat formation, and strikes against the enemy. These exercises involved about 20 combat aircraft, including F-35A, F-15K and KF-16 jets.
Naturally, given the recent trilateral summit in Seoul, senior officials in Japan and South Korea, among others, insisted that a satellite launch by North Korea would be a violation of UN Security Council resolutionsl. For his part, Chinese Premier Li Qiang stopped short of condemning the launch, refrained from expressing concern and instead called on the “relevant parties to exercise restraint.”
The failure of North Korea’s satellite launch
The launch took place on the evening of May 27, but shortly afterwards the KCNA reported that the new type of launch vehicle carrying the military reconnaissance satellite Mallygyong-1-1 had “exploded in mid-air and the launch was unsuccessful.” The preliminary cause of the accident was the unreliability of “the newly developed liquid oxygen + petroleum engine.”
Japanese public broadcaster NHK released a video showing a projectile exploding with orange flames, which an unnamed Japanese Defense Ministry official said could be caused by a liquid fuel fire. The explosion was also captured on video taken from a South Korean warship using electro-optical tracking equipment.
The launch came just hours after the conclusion of the trilateral summit in Seoul, leading South Korean experts to view it as an attempt to either attract or deflect attention.
Russian military expert Vladimir Khrustalyov notes that North Korea’s decision to use liquid oxygen plus petroleum to power the first stage of the rocket kerosene is both unprecedented and surprising. In the November 2023 launch the rocket engine was powered by a combination of dimethylhydrazine (rocket fuel) and lead oxide (oxidizer). The “traditional” space powers have long used this combination for space rocket launches, in view of its significant advantages over other fuel mixtures: it is environmentally clean, allows a sufficiently high specific impulse, etc. And the fact that liquid oxygen needs to be stored at -183 degrees Celsius, and requires specific equipment for storage and injection, makes it clear that this technology is being used for space exploration rather than for military purposes.
Jang Yong-geun, head of the rocket center at the ROK National Strategy Research Institute, said the combination of petroleum and liquid oxygen is known for generating a high specific impulse and a high level of thrust per unit of propellant, and has been used in South Korea’s Nuri rocket and SpaceX’s Falcon rocket in the United States.
In seeking to explain the failure, Western and South Korean analysts immediately focused on the “Russian trail,” attributing it to “… a new type of rocket engine possibly introduced with Russian assistance.”
Chang Young-keun suggests that North Korea is unlikely to have developed a new engine in such a short period of time, and a more plausible explanation would be that it acquired the technology from Russia and then conducted several ground tests of the engine before launch.
A number of experts on North Korea have suggested that Russia may now “provide more active and concrete technical support to increase the success rate, as it may seek to maximize visible progress through its technical support before Putin’s planned visit to Pyongyang.”
On May 28, numerous representatives of South Korea, the United States and Japan strongly condemned the launch, calling it a blatant violation of UN resolutions and a serious threat to peace.
On May 31 the launch was discussed by the UNSC, of which South Korea currently holds the presidency. South Korea’s representative to the UN, Ambassador Hwang Joon-kook, called North Korea’s failed satellite launch “one of the most expensive fireworks.”
In addition, US and South Korean Air Force units conducted large-scale aerial maneuvers with live firing against air and ground targets off the west coast of the Korean Peninsula. Over 90 aircraft of various types were involved in the maneuvers.
Failure is a prerequisite for success and not a reason for disappointment
Kim Jong-un took the failure of the launch calmly. Visiting the National Defense Academy on May 28 on the occasion of its 60th anniversary, the North Korean leader publicly acknowledged the failure of the satellite launch, but assessed it as a work in progress: “For our defense scientists and engineers who fight for the greatness of the country and the interests of the people, failure is a prerequisite for success and not a reason for disappointment.”
In his speech, Kim Jong-un pointed out that the possession of military reconnaissance satellites is essential if North Korea is to significantly strengthen its self-defense and deterrence forces in the face of serious changes in the security situation caused by US military maneuvers and various other provocative actions.
The North Korean leader noted that on the eve of the launch, all international norms and rules were observed and relevant warnings were announced to ensure the transparency of the launch and the safety of air and sea traffic. Given that background, he described the reactions of South Korea and the West as an armed threat to North Korea’s sovereignty and an extremely dangerous and unacceptable act of provocation that cannot be ignored.
Overall, Kim Jong-un said that the current situation calls for a comprehensive and further strengthening of its overwhelming deterrent power to prevent the risk of war and stressed “the importance of the role of the sci-tech think-tanks in the second revolution in the national defense industry.”
So what now?
The South Korean military believes that Pyongyang will need “considerable time” to prepare for another launch But according to Vladimir Khrustalyov, what is more important is that “Pyongyang has started to create a new generation of space rockets, which are not merely an adaptation of ready-made military solutions. They are specially designed right from the beginning to be ideally suited for space tasks.” North Korea needs to bring a single model of space rocket (or several variants of it) to mass production, for they already have several satellites in orbit, launched by various different rockets in 2012, 2016 and 2023.
However, Russia is still being blamed for the launch, and on May 31 the European Union announced new unilateral sanctions in response to alleged military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang. The new EU sanctions apply to six individuals (5 North Koreans and 1 Russian) and three legal entities (2 from North Korea and one from Russia).
In fact, all the outcry about the launch attempt is part of a deliberate ploy to justify the new sanctions.
Konstantin Asmolov, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Leading Research Fellow at the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”