Why must the Western elites “blink first” in the hyperbolic war being carried out against Russia? It’s not just because Russia’s Vladimir Putin recently said so at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum. The so-called “West” is feigning and barking about escalations in Ukraine, but the reality is that Europe is on the ropes.
The Call for Pragmatism
The BBC reported the other day and quoted Mr. Putin saying Europe is defenceless in the case of a nuclear exchange with Russia. The Russians have also indicated the right to sell/deploy massive strike weapons to nations threatened by America and the Western allies. This, in response to Washington giving the go-ahead for Ukraine’s Zelensky to hit targets inside Russia, is only logic. Joe Biden and his contemporaries in Europe should be thrilled Russia is led by a calm pragmatist instead of a foaming hothead like my country always seems to elect a president.
The foremost question at this juncture is, “Is Vladimir Putin right?” One sure way to know is the instant Washington think tanks call for cooler heads. A case in point is a report by James M. Acton from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center for President Biden to stop escalating the situation. Acton is the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He’s convinced that Ukraine’s recent attacks meant to degrade Russia’s strategic early warning system capability could cause a devastating response. Ukraine’s seemingly meaningless attacks on Russian radar facilities recently stink of Pentagon strategy for the keen observer.
Those still possessing their faculties in the West, even at think tanks funded by the elites, understand certain lines can never be crossed. Attacking, even by proxy, part of Russia’s nuclear warning/deterrent system is as dangerous as it gets. By the way, the BBC did not report on this. Acton and others are cautioning Joe Biden not to widen U.S. weapons use by Zelensky further. Let’s hope whoever tells Sleepy Joe what to do is paying attention. This quote from Acton’s report should suffice:
“If Moscow believes that Washington could conduct a successful preemptive attack on its nuclear forces, its trigger finger could get very itchy, raising the risk that Russia might launch a large-scale nuclear attack based on a false or misinterpreted warning. Indeed, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears fixated on the concern that the United States might launch a first strike on Russia’s nuclear forces and leadership.”
Europe’s Strategic Shortcomings
Another striking angle that points to Putin’s attitude and correctness on this situation is brought to light in the European Council on Foreign Relations ideas. Without any real emergency plan to protect EU citizens, the geniuses leading the bloc think the best policy forward is to create more first-strike capability. Yes, “Striking absence: Europe’s missile gap and how to close it” is an advertisement for the EU’s deep strike capabilities into Russia. The report also reveals what NATO and the EU are good at – studying and discussing. The following from that lame-brained report is telling:
“NATO has been studying options for how to counter the threat from Russian missiles, many of which can also deliver nuclear warheads. While missile defence needs to be part of the solution, extending an effective missile shield over the entirety of NATO’s European territory would be both technically infeasible and prohibitively expensive. Even Ukraine, which has the most missile defences in Europe, is only able to selectively protect critical infrastructure and population centres.”
In Mr. Putin’s words, Europe is defenceless unless the EU commission feels like spending several trillion euros on its own Iron Dome. Their rocket scientist (pun intended) solution seems to be forcing Vladimir Putin to launch first. Oh, brother, it’s difficult for many to understand why he has not already. Maybe he’s not worried about NATO, since the military alliance is still “planning” ways to defend Europe. Once again, Vladimir Putin was honest and correct in suggesting Europeans are sitting ducks if things get more dicey. As for European people, only about 10% of polled believe Ukraine can win over Russia in this military action.
The Liberal Order in charge of Europe right now is dead set on creating (See Early Warnings for All from the UN) an early warning system (EWS) in case of a climate-associated disaster, but finally pushing the Russians into the corner does not merit such vehemence. For a coherent understanding of Russia, Putin, and the situation our Western leaders have put us in, please read this report from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on the Europe going nuclear case. Even the most left-leaning nuclear experts in the world say, “Euro deterrent is a bad idea,” which further amplifies Russia’s growing apprehension about the warfare being waged by the West these days. Even the Atlantic Council suggests Europe is over if the Russians decide to go all in. “Russian victory in Ukraine would leave Europe at Putin’s mercy,” while meant to sell more weapons to Zelensky, comes right out and admits exactly what Putin told attendees in St. Petersburg the other day.
In addition, when Politico chastises both France and the UK over nuclear deterrent capabilities, V.V. Putin is again supported by the would-be enemy. The intro of the piece in question tells part of the story by blogger Professor Derrick Wyatt:
“Break it gently to the French president, but it will take more than the French and U.K. nuclear deterrents to defend the Continent without the U.S.”
Public Sentiment and Economic Impact
From the standpoint of the Europeans I talk to, this proxy war on Russia is costing people their livelihoods and more. What was supposed to be a record tourism season here on Crete, in Greece, is looking like a bust so far. Retailers tell me, “Retail is dead,” while once successful taverna owners rub their thumbs and forefinger together to explain why all the restaurants here are empty in June. “No money,” the owner of a famous fish tavern in Heraklion’s city center told me when I asked, “Where are all the tourists?” Perhaps the draining power of the elites in the West can only be rescued by a world conflict. It’s happened before. One thing is sure, however, is that Mr. Putin seems to be shooting straight from the hip again.
Phil Butler, is a policy investigator and analyst, a political scientist and expert on Eastern Europe, he’s an author of the recent bestseller “Putin’s Praetorians” and other books. He writes exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.