POLAND has just had the BIGGEST attitude shift, from having whole-heartily supported Ukraine without reservation, having accepted so many refugees with open arms, and provided a higher amount of assistance in relation to its size, both financial and militarily, and only now is coming to the realization that all is not well with the war, that the closed ranks of the West are not so tight, and that its own population is fed up with the situation.
It is not simply about the Western proxy war, but how Ukraine is turning Polish society upside down. On the surface, at least for public consumption, the Polish PM Donald Tusk and his ally, Trudeau of Canada, want to present one voice against Russia, but enthusiasm is waning.
The high level of public support that was observed at the very beginning of this Special Military Operation (SMO) is lower now on the part of Ukraine and the West, and only around 32 percent of Poles, one in three, believe Ukraine will win this armed conflict, another 30 percent or so doesn’t believe in this outcome, and the rest have no opinion, or don’t want to express it
There is a growing concern among Poles “that Ukrainian workers may take their jobs, and 40% of Poles associate the influx of Ukrainian citizens into the Polish labor market with a decrease in wage growth.”
Thus, 22% of respondents, one in five, believe that Ukrainians will take their jobs. The largest percentage of citizens with a similar point of view is in the 18-24 age groups (18%), while among respondents aged 25-34, the number is 15%. At the same time, 69% of respondents said they were not afraid of losing their jobs.
It is understandable why so many refugees want to come to Poland,“due to family ties, language similarity, close cultural ties, and family relations,” and parts of Ukraine were once part of Poland. However, for many, they are better defined as economic migrants than legal refugees, and this is becoming more and more a concern for both the Polish population and the government.
Next in line, proxy fighters: America’s B Team?
Poles now understand that they too are being considered as a proxy, not withstanding how many Poles are already serving in the Ukrainian army, and how many have been killed. The official number will likely never be known. However, in terms of which European countries provide the most mercenaries, Poland was in first place, at least during the early stage of the conflict, according to the Tass News Agency.
It is hard to find any reliable sources, but one thing seems apparent, Polish loses have been substantial since the beginning of the SMO, according to other sources, more than 10 thousand Poles were killed, reports “Mysl Polska”. The publication reports that “most of the mercenaries are soldiers and reservists who were sent to Ukraine under the guise of volunteers.”
As one Polish respondent shared as to how decisions are made in Poland:
“How can we even think about it, as all is signed by leftists in Brussels already and the striking of farmers in Poland is called by politicians as an action of Russian intelligence and not a real danger for whole of the EU agricultural project and the Green Act of the European Union?”
Adding that, “All is decided in Brussels, we as a nation, as citizens, are only useful on the days of elections. We are not considered when it comes to real decisions that affect our lives and livelihood. Take, for example, those farmers on the borders who are tracing these imported goods from Ukraine, there is evidence that the grain is of bad qualities, and it is destroying our domestic agricultural economy.”
Another concern for Poles is that the Ukrainian refugees have been granted the Polish “Pesel”, a form of identity card, to enable them to work, study, receive all benefits and pensions, take part in all programs of housing preferences, and other benefits that were previously only available to Polish citizens. Polish taxpayers are paying for all this largesse.
A friend in Poland also gave this stark warning “These Pearls “New Immigrants” will be used in the near future to enable Ukrainians to vote in local elections and in future elections to for the Parliament and Presidency, to keep in power these leftists who are tools of crazy EU policy which destroys all our countries.” This also sounds suspiciously like the plan of US leftists with the ongoing Biden manufactured border crisis.
Also of concern to Poles, is that they fear the real number of refugees in the country may be being deliberately downplayed in order to avoid the public becoming alarmed. This may also be further contributed to by the reluctance of many Ukrainian men of military age to register officially, in fear of the possibility of being forced to return to Ukraine by their erstwhile hosts to be fed into the catastrophic meat grinder that is the front line.
But ordinary Poles don’t expect their concerns to be heard, especially given their Foreign Minister, Radosław Sikorski, has an almost psychopathic hatred of Russians as an ethnicity, something put on steroids since his marriage to US author and fellow hater of all things Russian, Anne Applebaum.
Is it any wonder that the Polish farmers blocking entry of Ukrainian goods, especially agricultural, into Poland are raising signs asking Putin to deal with their government?
Actions Speak Louder than Words
It is more than just Washington’s ‘credibility at stake’ – said the Polish FM, considering that America’s promises to do whatever it takes to help Ukraine must be followed up with action, Radoslaw Sikorski is quoted by RT as saying.
It should come as no surprise that the US is long on rhetoric and the beating of war drums, but short on follow through to the end, especially when the going gets rough. We have already seen the “staying power” of America in Vietnam and Afghanistan, not to mention Iraq. It gives a whole new slant on the saying “When the going gets tough, the ‘tough’ get going”
He went on to recall Biden’s visit to Kiev last year, saying the president “planted the standard of the United States” by pledging “to do whatever it takes for however long it takes” to help Ukraine prevail, adding that the words need to be backed up by action.
I suspect that Poland may soon become the frontline for the West, and may end up as the guardian for what little will be left of a rump Ukraine at the end of the day. As in the past, “Poland is on the frontline of a battle for Ukraine that could easily spread.”
However, does it really need or want that?
It is especially alarming, with the pushing of NATO (the US in reality), that Poland will co-host this spring’s NATO exercise, Steadfast Defender 2024, and we know from experience, how war games, as was the case in 2008 with US troops in Georgia, can lead to a frontal attack on a breakaway region. Poland’s proactive engagement is also helping shift European security’s centre of gravity eastwards.
Naturally, NATO claims that such war games were planned“a long time ago”, and this is just a training exercise. But to look at it from a different perspective, the numbers speak loudly, with it being the largest military exercise in Europe since the Cold War.
NATO exercises, especially on this scale, are planned years in advance and use a fictitious scenario aimed at enhancing the Alliance’s collective defence. Exercises serve the dual purpose of refining defence plans as well as acting as a deterrent against potential aggression from near-peer adversaries
With approximately 90,000 troops from all 31 NATO Allies, as well as partner (and soon to be member) Sweden, participating, the exercise is poised to test and refine NATO’s defence plans for reinforcing European defences against an [supposed] adversary.
This may appear more as a provocation than a training exercise to Moscow, and one with unintended consequences. However, we must not forget it is an election year, and Biden and his learned National Security team must show what they are made of.
In light of this, the real concern for Poles is, seeing how Western guarantees of support to Ukraine have worked out, will they be left holding the bag in front of a resurgent bear that has been poked and prodded too many times?
The Poles need to think long and hard about where their real national interests lie.
Henry Kamens, columnist, expert on Central Asia and Caucasus, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.