It has now been forty days since Israel and Hamas began fighting in the Middle East. The IDF continues to engage in active combat operations in the Gaza Strip with strong support from the United States; therefore, the situation remains nevertheless far from stabilized. In real terms, the fight to completely destroy Hamas is turning into a pretext for crimes against civilians carried out in an effort to drive the Palestinians from Gaza and establish Israeli occupation. It should be pointed out that 40 days is sufficient time for the interested regional and extra-regional forces to develop a position on this conflict.
During this time, the global community has once again come to accept that the United States and the Collective West only have the pro-Israel viewpoint. In reality, the US is the primary obstacle preventing the situation from stabilizing and the conflict from becoming international. The United States offers Israel, its principal Middle East partner, all-encompassing, robust support, including financial, diplomatic, and military assistance. Massive forces have been sent there, and when paired with American military installations situated in Middle Eastern nations, they can:
(a) protect the Israeli army offensive in the Gaza Strip;
b) eliminate the prospect of an international anti-Israel front.
Key countries in the Arab East, notably Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, Egypt, and Bahrain, under US influence, never found the courage to take a stronger stance against Israel. Due to the divergent approaches of their participants, the extraordinary summits of the League of Arab States (LAS) and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) held in Riyadh in November of this year failed to adopt decisions that could have threatened Israel and its allies, for example, such as:
– forming a political-military coalition;
– giving Hamas financial and military backing;
– imposing an embargo on oil supplies to Israel and the West;
– cancelling flights over Israeli airspace.
Both Qatar and Turkey are exhibiting a stronger pro-Palestinian position and escalating anti-Israeli discourse. Ankara does not, however, renounce trade and economic ties with Israel, nor does it cut off intelligence contacts. Instead, it supports diplomatic initiatives such as calls for a ceasefire, humanitarian aid for the civilians, forceful demonstrations and marches, the withdrawal of the ambassador from Tel Aviv, a proposal to establish an independent Palestine centered in East Jerusalem with the participation of the Turkish Mandate, and an appeal to the ICC demanding that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be held accountable for the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. Doha, on the other hand, combines anti-Israel statements with financial support for Hamas.
Meanwhile, Iran and forces loyal to Iran in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq have adopted the most assertive posture against Israel. Iran is attempting to maintain the threat of the conflict becoming international and the geographic reach of the Islamic resistance by using its proxy forces to launch pinpoint strikes against Israel and the locations of US military bases in the region, such as those in Syria, Iraq, and the Red Sea. Iran is not, however, focused on starting a war with Israel or, for that matter, the United States.
Thus, forty days after the current hostilities started, Israel is still destroying and demolishing the Gaza Strip in preparation for its eventual occupation. However, some analysts contend quite reasonably that Tel Aviv also wants to solve issues that are essentially economic in nature in addition to resolving the political side of the conflict (i.e., overthrowing Hamas, compelling the Palestinians to evacuate, and occupying Gaza for good). This concerns Israel’s intention to illegally take over all the natural gas found offshore the Gaza Strip, which has a value in the multiple billion-dollar range.
An oil embargo by OPEC members could spark a resolution to the Palestinian issue, lead to the pacification of Israel and an end to the conflict, and establish a new global order with a balance of power and interests. It could also cause a global fuel and energy crisis in the markets of Europe and the United States.
In this regard, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Sabbar al-Sudani stated that because of Israeli actions in Gaza, oil supply to Western markets might be halted. Foreign Minister of Iran Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has formally demanded that Islamic nations impose a total boycott on gas and oil exports to NATO nations in exchange for their backing of Israel.
However, the restoration of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran under Chinese patronage has not, as of yet, sparked coordinated efforts to bring down the global financial system (that is, the Western one) without firing a single shot through the method of cutting off oil supplies to Israeli and Western markets.
Iran does not rule out such a scenario, despite its distaste for a military confrontation in the region, given the ongoing tempo of disproportionate Israeli raids on the Gaza Strip and the strong backing of the United States.
The permanent mission of Iran to the United Nations stated at the beginning of the conflict that Tehran would not engage Israel in direct combat unless the Israeli Defense Forces attacked the Islamic Republic. According to several media agencies, Hamas had not previously informed Iranian authorities about the planned big operation against Israel, which infuriated the Iranian leadership. Meanwhile, the American section of the Swiss Embassy in Tehran continued to serve as one of the official lines of intelligence sharing between Iran and the United States during the days of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In an interview with the British daily Financial Times, Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran Hossein Amir-Abdollahian stated that the Iranian side has informed the US through diplomatic channels that it does not want the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to grow. Nevertheless, “because of the approach taken by the US and Israel in the region, if the crimes against the people of Gaza and the West Bank do not stop, any option is possible, a wider conflict may be inevitable.”
The US is aware that Iran’s action is usually not different from its words. Furthermore, the Department of State and the CIA gather information in the Middle East on the rise in anti-American sentiment, which puts America at risk of losing influence in the Arab world.
Some conservative political circles in Iran have condemned the government and even demanded that Abdollahian, Foreign Minister of Iran, resign from office because Tehran’s position is too weak towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The representative of the conservative camp, Mahmoud Abbaszadeh Meshkini, Member of Parliament, and Speaker of the Parliament’s Committee for National Security and Foreign Affairs, accused the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of losing the central role in the settlement of the situation around Palestine and abandoning the course of the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini, on the destruction of Israel. A few legislators desire Tehran to take an active part in the conflict.
On the other hand, proponents of Iran’s reformist path, such as former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, believe Iran shouldn’t escalate the confrontation with the US and Israel in order to avoid becoming involved in a wider regional conflict.
Meanwhile, Iran has insisted that the IAEA denuclearize Israel in response to Israel’s Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu’s well-known remarks regarding the potential for a nuclear attack on the Gaza Strip. If not, Tehran can continue to advance its nuclear program and has enough enriched uranium (60%) to produce three atomic bombs at this point. It’s difficult to say whether this Iranian remark is only a political warning to the US-Israeli alliance or if it has the potential to become a real danger.
Iran continues to play a key role in finding a solution to the current conflict, and its strategic alliance with China ensures that it will play a significant role. The fact that Chinese Premier Li Qian approved of an exceptionally critical declaration for Chinese diplomacy is not an accident: “China will continue to firmly support Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty, territorial integrity and national dignity, and resolutely oppose any outside forces interfering in Iran’s internal affairs.”
The latter implies that threats from the United States and Israel against Iran may have much more serious repercussions for the regional interests of the West. It goes without saying that the leaders of the United States and China discussed this issue during their meeting in San Francisco. As a result, anything can happen to the Gaza Strip’s predicament.
Aleksandr SVARANTS, Doctor in Political Science, professor, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
